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Inflation risks back under the spotlight

Inflation risks back under the spotlight

With Donald Trump set to take office, the dollar rallies as markets anticipate US growth, fiscal spending, and inflation risks ahead of upcoming CPI data. Read more

Mixed signals from the Canadian labour market

Mixed signals from the Canadian labour market

The Canadian October jobs report delivered a mixed bag of signals for the BoC, with a further 50bp rate cut more likely than not in December. Read more

A non-committal Fed

A non-committal Fed

Yesterday, the FOMC cut rates by 25bps, but the tone from Powell read as distinctly non-committal to our Monex analysts. Read more

US elections: Trump wins Bigly

US elections: Trump wins Bigly

Now that the dust has settled on the US elections, we take a look forward at what the final outcomes could mean for FX markets. Read more

Hawkish BoE supportive for sterling

Hawkish BoE supportive for sterling

The MPC has trimmed Bank Rate by 25bps, taking it to 4.75% as expected, in their latest policy decision. Read more

Fed policy poses upside dollar risks

Fed policy poses upside dollar risks

The outcome of the presidential election leaves market implied policy rate expectations looking too dovish, suggesting upside risks for the dollar. Read more

Trump wins

Trump wins

Results in the past hour or so appear to have been enough to see Donald Trump secure the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency. Read more

Dollar fortunes hang in the balance

Dollar fortunes hang in the balance

Today’s election is closer than a coin toss, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the outcome. This is likely to keep market price action light today. Read more

Monex’s November 2024 FX Forecasts

Monex’s November 2024 FX Forecasts

US elections should be key for the dollar in November, with traders braced for volatility whoever wins the White House. Read more

US elections front of mind

US elections front of mind

Trump trades are front of mind this morning, with election day set for tomorrow and several notable polls released over the weekend. Read more

A fork in the road for the dollar

A fork in the road for the dollar

Five G10 central banks are set to deliver policy decisions, but none will be as consequential for FX markets as the outcome of the US presidential election. Read more

Payrolls slump, but leave reason for scepticism

Payrolls slump, but leave reason for scepticism

As expected, the October payrolls data came in soft. But, showing just 12k jobs added, this was much weaker than the 100k reading expected. Read more

US jobs data in focus ahead of the election

US jobs data in focus ahead of the election

This afternoon’s jobs report is the final tier-one data print ahead of the US elections and is expected to show a sharp slowdown in job gains in October. Read more

A modest inflation overshoot does little for ECB expectations

A modest inflation overshoot does little for ECB expectations

Eurozone inflation surprised marginally to the upside in October, with headline price growth rebounding to 2.0% YoY. Read more

Sterling slides, despite a growth-boosting budget

Sterling slides, despite a growth-boosting budget

The 0.35% fall for GBPUSD on Wednesday seems like an overreaction, with GBP's rally this morning more in keeping with the details of yesterday's event. Read more

Budget signals higher borrowing, taxes and spending

Budget signals higher borrowing, taxes and spending

Today’s budget had been billed as possibly the most consequential UK fiscal statement in more than a quarter of a century. Read more

Budget day sees risks skewed toward sterling upside

Budget day sees risks skewed toward sterling upside

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver her first budget, and possibly the most consequential UK fiscal event in more than a quarter of a century. Read more

Dollar risks skew marginally to the downside ahead of November 5th

Dollar risks skew marginally to the downside ahead of November 5th

The key risk event ahead of the US presidential election on November 5th comes on Friday with the release of the October jobs report. Read more

A busy week in store for FX

A busy week in store for FX

The US presidential elections should be the primary focus for North America this week, albeit against the backdrop of a busy docket in the US and elsewhere. Read more

The calm before the storm

The calm before the storm

Coming up is the first half of a very busy fortnight, bringing with it a UK budget, eurozone CPI, a BoJ rate decision, US GDP, and jobs data. Read more

Fiscal policy in focus for sterling

Fiscal policy in focus for sterling

Despite expectations that PMIs would be the main event on Thursday, yesterday saw a series of headlines regarding the UK budget. Read more

Political uncertainty weighs on growth

Political uncertainty weighs on growth

Private sector eurozone activity posted a marginal contraction in October, according to the latest flash PMIs. UK activity, by contrast, continued to expand. Read more

The BoC cuts by 50bps, opening the door for more

The BoC cuts by 50bps, opening the door for more

As expected, the BoC was the main event on Wednesday. The Governing Council cut rates by 50bps, accelerating the pace of easing. Read more

The BoC picks up the pace

The BoC picks up the pace

After trimming rates by 25bps at three consecutive meetings, the Bank of Canada has delivered a 50bp cut that takes the main policy rate to 3.75%. Read more

The BoC looks set to up the pace of easing

The BoC looks set to up the pace of easing

This afternoon’s BoC decision should be the big market event of the day. Our Monex analysts expect to see the Governing Council cut rates by 50bps. Read more

Trump trades are front of mind

Trump trades are front of mind

New figures suggest that the polling gap between Harris and Trump has closed over recent days – leading traders to reassess potential Trump trades. Read more

The dollar starts the new week stronger

The dollar starts the new week stronger

After a slide to finish last week, the dollar starts this one on the front foot, with the DXY index up 0.1% this morning. Read more

Picking up the pace

Picking up the pace

A similar dynamic to this week is likely to be front of mind for traders next week too. In this case, however, it will be the BoC taking centre stage. Read more

The ECB ups the pace

The ECB ups the pace

Yesterday’s ECB meeting proved surprisingly entertaining for euro traders, in an unusual turn of events. Read more

Lagarde sings like a dove

Lagarde sings like a dove

The ECB cut policy rates by 25bps at their October policy decision. More importantly, absent explicit confirmation that the ECB would cut rates in December. Read more

The ECB is set to cut, and should keep on cutting

The ECB is set to cut, and should keep on cutting

The ECB will deliver their penultimate rate decision of the year this afternoon, where a 25bp cut to rates should be a done deal. Read more

UK inflation sparks a sterling selloff

UK inflation sparks a sterling selloff

While yesterday’s labour market data had a less than spectacular impact on markets, UK CPI today has triggered a significant sterling selloff. Read more

The dollar makes gains on a deliberate Fed

The dollar makes gains on a deliberate Fed

The dollar made gains yesterday, helped by comments from the Fed’s Waller’s overnight, suggesting that the FOMC should move at a deliberate pace. Read more

A quieter week coming up for the dollar

A quieter week coming up for the dollar

Today, the dollar is likely to be a sideshow, with US markets largely closed for Columbus Day. Instead, the focus is likely to be on other G10 currencies. Read more

The ECB takes centre stage

The ECB takes centre stage

Market focus shifts to the ECB, UK inflation is likely to remain hot under the surface and traders continue to eye events in the Middle East nervously. Read more

The Canadian labour market is still not so hot

The Canadian labour market is still not so hot

Canadian labour readings for September surprised to the upside, showing the economy added 46.7k jobs on the month, while the unemployment rate fell to 6.5%. Read more

The dollar looks through an upside inflation surprise

The dollar looks through an upside inflation surprise

Despite yesterday’s core CPI landing at 0.3% MoM, beating consensus expectations, the dollar nevertheless ended the day broadly unchanged. Read more

A US CPI beat fails to boost the dollar

A US CPI beat fails to boost the dollar

Core inflation exceeded expectations once again in September, printing at 0.3% MoM, adding further support for a gradual easing approach from the Fed. Read more

FOMC minutes suggest that September’s 50bps was a one-off

FOMC minutes suggest that September’s 50bps was a one-off

Hurricane Milton and FOMC meeting minutes are the two key stories front of mind to kick off the day. Read more

The dollar comes roaring back

The dollar comes roaring back

Next week, we have the RBNZ, US CPI, and Canadian jobs at the top of the docket. Market confirmation could also see further dollar upside. Read more

Hot jobs data demolishes odds of a jumbo rate cut

Hot jobs data demolishes odds of a jumbo rate cut

The September jobs report smashed expectations across the board – and should kill off any prospect of another 50bp cut from the Fed this year. Read more

Monex’s October 2024 FX Forecasts

Monex’s October 2024 FX Forecasts

Several key developments last month give us confidence that our underlying thesis remains intact, retaining our forecast for a stronger dollar this month. Read more

Eurozone inflation dips below target

Eurozone inflation dips below target

Headline inflation in the eurozone cooled to 1.8% in September, a sharp drop from the 2.2% recorded in August. Read more

Nonfarms in focus for the Fed

Nonfarms in focus for the Fed

Next week, Fed easing and eurozone inflation should be in focus, alongside geopolitical risks, with the main event on Friday of US jobs data. Read more

SNB eases, but not by enough to weaken the franc

SNB eases, but not by enough to weaken the franc

The SNB has trimmed the policy rate by 0.25%, in line with market consensus and our own pre-announcement call. Read more

Fed cutting remains the focus

Fed cutting remains the focus

Next week is set to be another busy week too. Rate decisions are expected from the Riksbank, the SNB, and Banxico, with cuts likely across the board. Read more

The BoE holds on, while sterling breaks YTD highs

The BoE holds on, while sterling breaks YTD highs

The MPC voted 8-1 to maintain Bank Rate at 5.00% in their latest policy decision, matching our own call and market expectations. Read more

The Fed cuts by 50bps, but why rush?

The Fed cuts by 50bps, but why rush?

The FOMC surprised at least some in markets, including ourselves, kicking off their easing cycle with a 50bp rate cut. Read more

UK CPI growth remains unchanged in August

UK CPI growth remains unchanged in August

UK CPI rose by 2.2% YoY in August, matching market expectations, but tracking 0.2% below the rate projected in Bank of England staff forecasts. Read more

Canadian inflation cools, worryingly so in the details

Canadian inflation cools, worryingly so in the details

Canadian inflation continues to soften, and soften faster than expected, reinforcing calls for the BoC to up the pace of easing to 50bp increments. Read more

Dollar unloved, but perhaps not for much longer

Dollar unloved, but perhaps not for much longer

Next week brings the event we have all been waiting for. The Fed will almost certainly begin to cut rates, with our Monex analysts thinking by 25bps. Read more

The ECB cuts, but hawkish forecast revisions boost the euro

The ECB cuts, but hawkish forecast revisions boost the euro

The ECB cuts the deposit rate by 25bps, as expected, and in line with our own pre-announcement call. Read more

US core CPI exceeds expectations, but does little to shift the outlook

US core CPI exceeds expectations, but does little to shift the outlook

US core prices grew by 0.3% MoM in August, beating consensus estimates that looked for a 0.2% print. Read more

UK wage growth continues to cool, albeit slowly

UK wage growth continues to cool, albeit slowly

With July wage data meeting consensus expectations, markets are no clearer on the next move for Bank Rate ahead of a policy announcement on September 19th. Read more

Too early for a sustained dollar turnaround

Too early for a sustained dollar turnaround

In the coming week, US CPI data should be the focus, as well as the ECB, UK jobs data and LatAm CPI. Read more

Payrolls soft, but probably not soft enough for 50bps

Payrolls soft, but probably not soft enough for 50bps

The US economy added 142k jobs in August, marginally less than the 165k expected. Today’s data was less than conclusive ahead of the next FOMC decision. Read more

The BoC cuts, again

The BoC cuts, again

The Bank of Canada has cut rates by 25bp for the third successive meeting, taking the policy rate to 4.25%, matching consensus expectations. Read more

Monex’s September 2024 FX Forecasts

Monex’s September 2024 FX Forecasts

Our analysts believe there is a risk of overinterpreting the dollar’s slide through August’s muted trading conditions and expect a reassessment in September. Read more

All eyes on August NFPs

All eyes on August NFPs

The primary focus for markets is likely to remain on the US this week, with the dollar still front and centre as traders return from summer holidays. Read more

Focus on the fallout from Jackson Hole

Focus on the fallout from Jackson Hole

The fallout from Jackson Hole is likely to be a dominant theme to start next week too, with CPI prints from Australia and the eurozone, and Canadian GDP. Read more

Growth differentials continue to favour GBPEUR upside

Growth differentials continue to favour GBPEUR upside

European economic activity expanded by more than expected in August, according to the latest flash PMI numbers. Read more

Canadian rail strikes pose a tail risk to the loonie

Canadian rail strikes pose a tail risk to the loonie

Canadian freight rail could grind to a halt due to strike action in the coming days, posing downside risks to both the economy and the loonie. Read more

Further disinflation progress for the BoC

Further disinflation progress for the BoC

Canadian inflation slowed to 2.5% in July, matching consensus estimates and confirming expectations for a rate cut from the BoC next month. Read more

The Riksbank signals more cuts coming

The Riksbank signals more cuts coming

The Riksbank cut rates by 25bps at its latest policy meeting, matching market expectations and our own pre-announcement call. Read more

The dollar looks cheap ahead of Jackson Hole

The dollar looks cheap ahead of Jackson Hole

While, Canadian CPI, August PMIs, and a Riksbank decision will all offer some entertainment, the focus for traders should be on Jackson Hole. Read more

Krone weakness keeps the Norges Bank hawkish for now

Krone weakness keeps the Norges Bank hawkish for now

The Norges Bank has maintained the deposit Rate at 4.50%, matching market consensus and our own pre-announcement call. Read more

US CPI rebounds to dent odds of a jumbo September rate cut

US CPI rebounds to dent odds of a jumbo September rate cut

In the US, today's CPI data release shows July’s core inflation meets expectations after two successive months of downside misses. Read more

July inflation cools more than expected, supporting calls for September easing

July inflation cools more than expected, supporting calls for September easing

UK inflation rose less than expected in July, further supporting a September cut to Bank Rate after yesterday’s mixed set of labour market prints. Read more

Mixed signals for the MPC

Mixed signals for the MPC

We think policymakers can look through a surprise drop in unemployment, keeping the Bank of England on track to cut rates 2-3 more times this year. Read more

Monex’s August 2024 FX Forecasts

Monex’s August 2024 FX Forecasts

The end of the month and beginning of August, has seen numerous events combined in a perfect storm to see a notable uptick in market volatility. Read more

Grim NFPs put recession risks in play

Grim NFPs put recession risks in play

Today’s nonfarm payrolls heavily undershot market expectations by a significant distance, landing at just 114k. Read more

The BoE cuts, but only just

The BoE cuts, but only just

The MPC has cut Bank Rate to 5.00%, meeting market expectations, but frustrating our call that had looked for a first rate cut in September. Read more

Fed cuts get closer

Fed cuts get closer

The FOMC held rates at 5.25%-5.50% once again today, matching market consensus and our own pre-decision call. Read more

A September rate cut is still on the cards from the ECB, despite July’s CPI beat

A September rate cut is still on the cards from the ECB, despite July’s CPI beat

Eurozone inflation delivered a marginal beat in July, but September easing is still on the cards for the ECB. Read more

The US economy remains exceptional, for now

The US economy remains exceptional, for now

The first reading for US Q2 GDP smashed expectations, indicating a brisk expansion in economic activity after a slow start to the year. Read more

Cutting remarks from Macklem

Cutting remarks from Macklem

The Bank of Canada has delivered a 25bp cut for the second consecutive meeting, talking policy rates from 4.75% to 4.50%, in line with market consensus. Read more

Eurozone growth continues to disappoint as the UK outperforms

Eurozone growth continues to disappoint as the UK outperforms

The expansion in eurozone private sector activity ground to a halt in July according to the latest flash PMI indicators. Read more

A September cut remains the base case

A September cut remains the base case

To almost no one’s surprise, the Governing Council has kept all three key ECB interest rates unchanged in their July policy decision. Read more

Labour market data hints at cooling, but not enough to cut next month

Labour market data hints at cooling, but not enough to cut next month

UK labour market data met consensus expectations to show wage growth cooled modestly in May, but likely not by enough to see the BoE cut rates next month. Read more

The pound pops on hot June CPI data

The pound pops on hot June CPI data

UK inflation stabilised at 2% in June to throw the prospects of an August rate cut into yet more doubt, as price growth marginally outperformed expectations. Read more

Back-to-back cuts incoming from the BoC

Back-to-back cuts incoming from the BoC

The Bank of Canada should cut rates later this month based on June’s CPI figures. Today’s data confirms that May’s inflation uptick was a blip. Read more

The dollar drops on further soft inflation data

The dollar drops on further soft inflation data

Another sharp drop in the US price growth figures for June all but confirms a Fed rate cut in September, and likely another cut later this year as well. Read more

US labour market cools at a steady pace

US labour market cools at a steady pace

Today’s jobs report proved net neutral for dollar, and we suspect, for the FOMC. The headline nonfarm payrolls readings showed 206k jobs added in June. Read more

The BoC remains on track for back-to-back cuts

The BoC remains on track for back-to-back cuts

The Labour Force Survey once again stands out as the best indicator of Canada’s underlying cyclical position, which is weak. Read more

A Labour landslide does little for sterling

A Labour landslide does little for sterling

The Labour party secured a majority in yesterday’s General Election, winning 410 seats in the House of Commons, with six constituencies left to declare. Read more

Imported deflation to keep SNB leaning against a strong CHF

Imported deflation to keep SNB leaning against a strong CHF

The Swiss National Bank’s decision to cut rates for a second successive time in June was finely balanced. Read more

The NBP delivers more of the same

The NBP delivers more of the same

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) maintained the base rate at 5.75% for the ninth meeting in a row, matching both our own expectations and market consensus. Read more

Monex’s July 2024 FX Forecasts

Monex’s July 2024 FX Forecasts

Our analysts have pushed back their expectations for the dollar's decline when looking at the backdrop for G10 and EMs regarding risks and politics. Read more

April’s GDP report doesn’t tip the balance for the BoC

April’s GDP report doesn’t tip the balance for the BoC

Having flatlined in March, Canada’s economy returned to growth in April, with both the manufacturing and services sectors expanding 0.3% on the month. Read more

Banxico delivers a dovish pause

Banxico delivers a dovish pause

Yesterday, Banxico's Board of Governors decided to hold its benchmark interest rate at 11% for the second consecutive meeting. Read more

The Riksbank delivers a dovish hold

The Riksbank delivers a dovish hold

The Riksbank has kept rates unchanged at 3.75%, as was widely expected, in their latest policy decision. Read more

Brazil inflation cools in June, but the BCB to remain on hold through summer

Brazil inflation cools in June, but the BCB to remain on hold through summer

After surprising at May's meeting with a 25 basis point cut, the BCB vote unanimously to keep the Selic rate at 10.50% for the first time this easing cycle. Read more

Spike in Canadian inflation doesn’t mark a departure from trend

Spike in Canadian inflation doesn’t mark a departure from trend

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, headline inflation in Canada grew by 0.56% month-on-month in May, beating expectations by six tenths of a percent. Read more

Bank of England treads water before August

Bank of England treads water before August

As widely expected, the Bank of England maintained Bank Rate at 5.25% at today’s meeting.  Read more

BCB cuts are interrupted

BCB cuts are interrupted

For the first time in the current cycle of cuts, the BCB decided to hold rates, leaving the Selic rate at 10.50%. Read more

Another hawkish hold in Norway

Another hawkish hold in Norway

The Norges Bank maintained rates at 4.50% at its June decision, matching market expectations although guidance accompanying today’s decision skewed hawkish. Read more

SNB cuts again as it takes aim at the strong franc

SNB cuts again as it takes aim at the strong franc

The Swiss National Bank retained its position as the most dovish G10 central bank today as it cut rates for a second time this cycle by 25bps to 1.25%. Read more

Stable in the storm

Stable in the storm

Our Monex analysts expect the RBI to continue sterilising capital inflows by increasing their FX reserves, mobilising them to combat depreciation pressures. Read more

Sticky services a concern for the BoE

Sticky services a concern for the BoE

Headline inflation dropped to 2.0% in May, returning to the Bank of England’s target for the first time since July 2021. Read more

The NBH eases into a new approach to rate cuts

The NBH eases into a new approach to rate cuts

The National Bank of Hungary has cut rates by a further 25bp at their June interest rate announcement, meeting market expectations. Read more

From hero to zero

From hero to zero

Our Monex analysts suspect that the high levels of the MXN seen over the last few months that earned it the nickname "super peso" are now unachievable. Read more

GBPEUR set to stay in a new, higher range

GBPEUR set to stay in a new, higher range

GBPEUR has broken out of a near 2-year range, driven by widening interest rate differentials and greater political risk on the continent. Read more

Fed: It’s (still) too early to say with confidence

Fed: It’s (still) too early to say with confidence

The Federal Reserve unanimously kept its target range for the Federal funds rate on hold at 5.25-5.5% today. Read more

Sudden stop in US core inflation resurrects odds of a September cut

Sudden stop in US core inflation resurrects odds of a September cut

After pressures intensified in the early 2024, underlying US inflation is now easing sharply. Read more

BCB to hold as May inflation data validates upside inflation concerns

BCB to hold as May inflation data validates upside inflation concerns

The publication of the Brazilian National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) data for May confirmed our suspicions that disinflationary progress is set to slow. Read more

UK wage growth stabilises in April, but doesn’t bring forward BoE easing

UK wage growth stabilises in April, but doesn’t bring forward BoE easing

Average weekly earnings in the UK grew by an average of 5.9% in the three months to April when compared to a year earlier. Read more

Today’s nonfarms beat kills off chances that the Fed cuts in July

Today’s nonfarms beat kills off chances that the Fed cuts in July

Today’s US nonfarm payrolls overshot expectations to print at 272k, above the 180k expected by markets, and well in excess of the 165k jobs added in April. Read more

Slack continues to build in the Canadian labour market, keeping the BoC on track for multiple cuts

Slack continues to build in the Canadian labour market, keeping the BoC on track for multiple cuts

Canadian unemployment rate rises yet another 0.1percentage points to 6.2%, leaving it 1.1pp above the lows seen during the post-pandemic recovery. Read more

ECB commences easing cycle but provides little future guidance

ECB commences easing cycle but provides little future guidance

The European Central Bank joined its peers in Switzerland, Sweden, and Canada by cutting its policy rate by 25 bps, bringing the deposit rate to 3.75%. Read more

Staying bearish on weak cyclicals

Staying bearish on weak cyclicals

Given the recent rate cut by the Bank of Canada, our analysts expect a deeper easing cycle from the BoC this year and are bearish on the loonie's outlook. Read more

The Bank of Canada delivers the first of many cuts

The Bank of Canada delivers the first of many cuts

The Bank of Canada today cut its overnight policy rate by 25bps to 4.75%, having previously held rates at a terminal level of 5% since July last year. Read more

Monex’s June 2024 FX Forecasts

Monex’s June 2024 FX Forecasts

Our analysts expect central bank policy to remain firmly in the spotlight in June, whilst traders will also be paying close attention to upcoming elections. Read more

GDP provides no reason for the BoC to hold

GDP provides no reason for the BoC to hold

Today's Q1 GDP report has just killed the economic reacceleration argument in favour of the Bank of Canada holding rates next week. Read more

The krone’s ascent is just getting started

The krone’s ascent is just getting started

The Norwegian krone has struggled throughout the hiking cycle, with the impact of higher external rates offsetting a rally in oil. Read more

An improving outlook should support THB recovery in H2

An improving outlook should support THB recovery in H2

The Thai baht has been the second worst performing Asian currency since the start of 2024, having fallen almost 6% against the dollar. Read more

Eurozone data supports the ECB hawks at the margin

Eurozone data supports the ECB hawks at the margin

Today is a big day as far as the ECB is concerned, with not one but two key pieces of data being published this morning. Read more

UK PMIs signal further normalisation to come

UK PMIs signal further normalisation to come

Flash May PMIs signal a deceleration in UK growth after a surprisingly strong set of April figures, accompanied by signals of economic normalisation. Read more

April CPI should kill off prospects for a June cut from the BoE

April CPI should kill off prospects for a June cut from the BoE

The latest UK inflation figures show that price growth eased at a slower pace than expected in April, with all notable measures beating market expectations. Read more

NBH delivers another 50bp cut

NBH delivers another 50bp cut

The National Bank of Hungary today cut interest rates by 50bps for the second consecutive meeting, taking the base rate to 7.25%. Read more

It’s time for the BoC to begin cutting rates

It’s time for the BoC to begin cutting rates

Annual rates of inflation in Canada are now all back within the BoC’s target range, supporting an imminent commencement to the Bank’s easing cycle. Read more

All set for a sterling year

All set for a sterling year

The UK no longer looks like an inflationary outlier, with activity readings signalling a strong rebound in growth. Read more

The tide may be turning on US inflation

The tide may be turning on US inflation

Core measures of US inflation have resumed trending in the right direction for Fed cuts, but remain uncomfortably high in level terms. Read more

Swedish CPI does little to alter the Riksbank’s path

Swedish CPI does little to alter the Riksbank’s path

April’s inflation data out of Sweden this morning marginally undershot expectations once again. Read more

UK wage data offers little insight for the BoE

UK wage data offers little insight for the BoE

UK wage growth overshot expectations in March, with headline readings showing no further cooling relative to February. Read more

Canada’s bumper job growth doesn’t change the outlook for the BoC

Canada’s bumper job growth doesn’t change the outlook for the BoC

After months of relatively benign employment growth, the Canadian economy was seen adding 90.4k jobs in April. Read more

Banxico keeps rates steady and firm

Banxico keeps rates steady and firm

After Banxico's Board of Governors decided to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in March, they held rates steady yesterday. Read more

Goodbye to unanimity: fiscal policy sows discord and leads the BCB to cut by 25bps

Goodbye to unanimity: fiscal policy sows discord and leads the BCB to cut by 25bps

Despite explicitly guiding markets to a final 50bps cut in May at its March meeting, the BCB reneged on this guidance by cutting the Selic rate by 25bps. Read more

The BoE stays on hold, for now

The BoE stays on hold, for now

Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to maintain Bank Rate at 5.25% comes as little surprise to markets. Read more

The Riksbank joins the easing club

The Riksbank joins the easing club

The Riksbank delivers a hawkish rate cut, against our expectations but in line with market consensus. Read more

Payrolls data delivers a blow to narrative of US inflation persistence

Payrolls data delivers a blow to narrative of US inflation persistence

Just as markets were settling into the narrative that the US economy remained hot, fuelling concerns over inflation persistence, the data has begun to cool. Read more

Monex’s May 2024 FX Forecasts

Monex’s May 2024 FX Forecasts

We believe the pace of USD appreciation is likely to slow over the course of Q2 as investors and central banks remain wary of a stronger dollar.   Read more

Powell promotes higher for longer stance

Powell promotes higher for longer stance

Unsurprisingly, the Fed maintained rates at 5.25-5.50%, in line with market consensus and our own pre-announcement call. Read more

The ECB’s debate over July rages on

The ECB’s debate over July rages on

With most ECB members publicly accepting that they will cut rates in June, the debate has swiftly moved onto the July meeting. Read more

The tide is finally turning for the lira

The tide is finally turning for the lira

The Turkish lira has been depreciating on a trend basis ever since the onset of the pandemic, driven domestically by a combination of factors. Read more

Monetary policy to return as a primary driver for EURSEK

Monetary policy to return as a primary driver for EURSEK

Despite our expectations that EURSEK would retrace lower this month to stabilise around 11.4, the cross has actually rallied through April. Read more

US PCE data still too hot, but not as bad as some feared

US PCE data still too hot, but not as bad as some feared

March PCE printed broadly in line with expectations, despite building speculation of an upside beat following yesterday's GDP release. Read more

Headline US GDP provides a head fake, focus on the details

Headline US GDP provides a head fake, focus on the details

The advance reading of US Q1 GDP today showed the economy slowing more than expected as headline GDP landed at 1.6% QoQ annualised. Read more

NBH policy enters a new phase with 50bps of easing

NBH policy enters a new phase with 50bps of easing

Today’s policy decision sees the National Bank of Hungary slow the pace of policy easing, delivering 50bps of rate cuts in line with expectations. Read more

April PMIs should put a dent in BoE dovishness

April PMIs should put a dent in BoE dovishness

Whilst April's flash PMI report read awfully like a soft landing scenario was evolving in the UK, we think risks of inflation persistence remain prominent.  Read more

Eurozone PMIs pose a conundrum for the ECB

Eurozone PMIs pose a conundrum for the ECB

For the first time in 10-months, both the French and German composite PMIs no longer signal economic contractions. Read more

The yuan’s fortunes look less constructive

The yuan’s fortunes look less constructive

With the US and Chinese economic prospects starting to diverge, we now think USDCNY will struggle to durably break below 7.00 over the coming years. Read more

Sticky inflation to keep rates unchanged in June

Sticky inflation to keep rates unchanged in June

While headline inflation continued its downward trend in March, a smaller than expected fall reconfirms the message from yesterday’s pay data. Read more

BoC on track to cut in June and quickly thereafter

BoC on track to cut in June and quickly thereafter

The Bank of Canada remains on track to cut rates in June despite the latest data showing inflation ticked up from 2.8% in February to 2.9% YoY in March. Read more

February wage growth should sound a note of caution for the BoE

February wage growth should sound a note of caution for the BoE

This morning’s UK labour market data is unlikely to help give the Bank of England sufficient confidence to cut rates in June. Read more

MAS unchanged stance to put a ceiling on USDSGD

MAS unchanged stance to put a ceiling on USDSGD

The Monetary Authority of Singapore decided to keep the slope of the S$NEER policy band unchanged. Read more

The ECB not recommitting, but sets up a cut in June

The ECB not recommitting, but sets up a cut in June

The ECB has kept rates unchanged once again, maintaining the deposit rate at 4.00% in line with widespread consensus and our own pre-announcement call. Read more

Bank of Canada on track for June cut

Bank of Canada on track for June cut

The Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged at 5% today, which came as no surprise to markets. Read more

Bump in US disinflation path looks more like a mountain than a molehill

Bump in US disinflation path looks more like a mountain than a molehill

Both headline and core measures of US CPI landed 0.1pp above expectations on a monthly basis in March, printing at 0.4% MoM respectively on a rounded basis. Read more

Banxico to remain cautious even as inflation misses expectations

Banxico to remain cautious even as inflation misses expectations

Headline and core inflation in Mexico came in slightly below consensus expectations for a notable pick-up in inflation in March. Read more

Strong payrolls print, but June still the base case

Strong payrolls print, but June still the base case

The March US nonfarm payrolls print beat all expectations, showing the economy added 303k jobs. Read more

Canada’s labour market supports continuous easing from the BoC

Canada’s labour market supports continuous easing from the BoC

The Canadian economy failed to add jobs in March, with employment essentially flatlining on the month. Read more

No change at the NBP

No change at the NBP

The National Bank of Poland maintained the policy rate at 5.75% for the sixth successive meeting, a move widely expected by markets. Read more

Swiss inflation cools in March, validating the SNB’s decision to cut

Swiss inflation cools in March, validating the SNB’s decision to cut

Inflation seemingly disappeared in Switzerland in March, just as underlying measures suggested the pace of price growth was reaccelerating. Read more

Softer ISM Services should be treated with caution

Softer ISM Services should be treated with caution

The ISM services PMI dropped to 51.4 in March, down 1.2 percentage points from 52.6 the month prior and disappointing market consensus. Read more

Monex’s April 2024 FX Forecasts

Monex’s April 2024 FX Forecasts

Our market analysts believe expectations of monetary easing across the G10 are likely to diverge further in April. Here's Monex's latest FX forecasts for April. Read more

Canada’s economy rises from its slump, but it’s not all good news

Canada’s economy rises from its slump, but it’s not all good news

The Canadian economy grew 0.6% MoM in January, beating expectations and Statistics Canada’s flash estimate by 0.2 percentage points. Read more

The Riksbank opens the door to rate cuts

The Riksbank opens the door to rate cuts

The Riksbank left rates unchanged at 4.00% in their latest policy decision, but validated market expectations that the first rate cut could come in May. Read more

The NBH slows the pace as domestic tensions weigh

The NBH slows the pace as domestic tensions weigh

The National Bank of Hungary cut rates by 75bps at today’s meeting, taking the base rate to 8.25%, in line with the market consensus and our forecast. Read more

Banxico cuts for the first time… but keeps the cautious stance

Banxico cuts for the first time… but keeps the cautious stance

At its March meeting, Banxico's Board of Governors decided to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 11.00% for the first time this cycle. Read more

Bank of England lays the foundations to cut

Bank of England lays the foundations to cut

The Bank of England has left Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25% once again, in line with consensus expectations and our forecast. Read more

BCB cuts 50 basis points, maintains its forecasts but turns more hawkish

BCB cuts 50 basis points, maintains its forecasts but turns more hawkish

At its March meeting, the BCB's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) unanimously decided to cut the Selic rate by 50bps for the sixth consecutive time. Read more

March PMIs point towards a two speed Europe

March PMIs point towards a two speed Europe

March flash PMIs continue to highlight the contrasting fortunes of European economies. Read more

The SNB commences the G10 easing cycle

The SNB commences the G10 easing cycle

The Swiss National Bank today cut its policy rate by 25bps to 1.5%, making it the first G10 central bank to cut rates this cycle. Read more

Fed reiterates confidence to cut this year, but risk of a higher terminal rate grows

Fed reiterates confidence to cut this year, but risk of a higher terminal rate grows

FOMC members continue to predict 3 rate cuts this year, but have revised up the 2025/2026 median by 25bps and lifted the longer-term projection moderately. Read more

UK inflation cools but not by enough to shift the BoE

UK inflation cools but not by enough to shift the BoE

Headline UK inflation dropped marginally more than expected in February, with prices rising by 3.4% on a YoY basis. Read more

BoC should cut in April, whether they will is another question

BoC should cut in April, whether they will is another question

Across nearly all measures, inflation pressures in Canada cooled considerably in February, with headline inflation undershooting consensus expectations. Read more

SNB preview: Narrowly avoiding being the first to cut

SNB preview: Narrowly avoiding being the first to cut

Having effectively brought inflation back to within its target range, the SNB scans as the most likely candidate to kickstart the DM easing cycle. Read more

Bank of Japan “dovishly” exits negative rates and YCC

Bank of Japan “dovishly” exits negative rates and YCC

The Bank of Japan hiked interest rates for the first time in 17 years today, effectively exiting negative interest rates that had been in place since 2016. Read more

Norges Bank Preview: NOK rocking the ship

Norges Bank Preview: NOK rocking the ship

Whilst we see no risk of the Norges Bank adjusting rates this week, the extent to which the central bank updates its guidance will be important to markets. Read more

Asian FX volatility to sprout in Spring

Asian FX volatility to sprout in Spring

Implied and realised volatility should rise close to recent averages across a multitude of Asian currency pairs ahead of the Fed’s June meeting. Read more

UK economy rebounds in January

UK economy rebounds in January

January’s monthly GDP print showed the UK economy expanded by 0.2%, fuelling hopes that a technical recession for the UK will remain a 2023 story. Read more

Hotter February inflation should turn BCB hawkish

Hotter February inflation should turn BCB hawkish

Brazil's headline inflation was again slightly above economists' forecasts in February. Read more

US inflation keeps Fed easing bets before June at bay

US inflation keeps Fed easing bets before June at bay

US Headline inflation only just met expectations of a 0.4% MoM increase in February, with the unrounded figure printing at 0.442%. Read more

Marginal labour market cooling keeps the BoE on track for an August cut

Marginal labour market cooling keeps the BoE on track for an August cut

January’s UK labour market data, released this morning, keeps the Bank of England on track for an August start to policy easing. Read more

Powell’s confidence is not misplaced

Powell’s confidence is not misplaced

Today’s jobs report is the kind that should see confidence building at the Fed, as the headline NFP number indicated 275k jobs added in February. Read more

Strong job growth doesn’t justify the BoC delaying until June

Strong job growth doesn’t justify the BoC delaying until June

For the second month this year, the Canadian economy added an above-trend level of jobs, with net employment increased by 40.7k in February. Read more

Lagarde all but shuts the door on an April cut

Lagarde all but shuts the door on an April cut

The ECB kept all policy rates unchanged once again in today’s decision, meeting both consensus expectations and our own pre-announcement call. Read more

BoC says it’s “too early” to ease

BoC says it’s “too early” to ease

The Bank of Canada left its policy rate at 5% for a fifth straight meeting today, in line with the broad consensus. Read more

NBP holds rates, resumption of easing to be delayed

NBP holds rates, resumption of easing to be delayed

The National Bank of Poland today held rates at 5.75%, as widely expected with focus on the updated inflation forecasts and the future path of policy rates. Read more

The Chancellor delivers few pre-election boosts

The Chancellor delivers few pre-election boosts

The Spring Budget contained no meaningful pre-election surprises, leaving the path clear for the BoE to cut rates this year, most likely in August. Read more

Monex’s March 2024 FX Forecasts

Monex’s March 2024 FX Forecasts

With more central bank meetings set for this month, we think policymakers will have to recognise the growing divergence in economic fundamentals. Read more

Canada’s economy can’t fulfil its potential despite beating expectations

Canada’s economy can’t fulfil its potential despite beating expectations

The Canadian economy essentially flatlined in December following a 0.23% MoM increase in November, as measured on an industry basis. Read more

The NBH picks up the pace

The NBH picks up the pace

The National Bank of Hungary cut rates by 100bp in their latest policy decision, taking the main policy rate to 9.00%, in line with market consensus. Read more

Divergent fortunes between the UK and eurozone are on show once again

Divergent fortunes between the UK and eurozone are on show once again

Green shoots of recovery should not distract from the reality that eurozone activity remains in contraction, highlighted today by eurozone PMI figures. Read more

April is now live again for a BoC cut

April is now live again for a BoC cut

Thankfully for the BoC, January’s inflation data presented a clearer picture of disinflation, with all indices essentially reflecting weaker growth rates. Read more

PBoC provides more support to the housing market

PBoC provides more support to the housing market

The People’s Bank of China surprised market expectations, cutting the 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) instead of the 1-year LPR. Read more

UK retail sales reverse the Christmas slump

UK retail sales reverse the Christmas slump

January’s retail sales data should put to bed any doubts around the UK’s economic prospects heading into 2024. Read more

UK Q4 GDP figures confirm a 2023 technical recession

UK Q4 GDP figures confirm a 2023 technical recession

UK GDP data released this morning confirmed that the UK just barely fell into a technical recession at the end of 2023. Read more

UK inflation surprisingly fails to accelerate

UK inflation surprisingly fails to accelerate

January’s UK inflation numbers notably undershot expectations in this morning's release, countering yesterday’s hotter labour market figures. Read more

US CPI provides the Fed with another reason to hold

US CPI provides the Fed with another reason to hold

If the prospect of an interest rate cut from the Fed in March wasn’t yet dead, January’s inflation data has just provided the final bullet. Read more

SNB to weaken the franc ahead of March rate cut

SNB to weaken the franc ahead of March rate cut

Today's Swiss inflation data confirms our view that the SNB will loosen monetary policy, primarily through the exchange rate before cutting its policy rate. Read more

UK labour market continues to outperform expectations

UK labour market continues to outperform expectations

Today's UK labour market data delivered yet another head scratching outturn, reinforcing our call for no policy rate easing in the first half of this year. Read more

Even Canada’s jobs data isn’t safe

Even Canada’s jobs data isn’t safe

Canada’s macroeconomic data has been incredibly noisy in recent months, making it nigh on impossible to accurately predict the state of the economy. Read more

January inflation and a more cautious Banxico point to the March meeting… as the soonest

January inflation and a more cautious Banxico point to the March meeting… as the soonest

Headline and core inflation in January continued to show the pace of disinflation in Mexico slowing at the beginning of the year. Read more

CNB rate cuts accelerate

CNB rate cuts accelerate

The Czech National Bank (CNB) cut rates by 50bps this afternoon, taking the repurchase rate to 6.25%, delivering more policy easing than we expected. Read more

Further evidence that the BCB will have to be less optimistic

Further evidence that the BCB will have to be less optimistic

Headline inflation in Brazil came in slightly higher than economists expected at the beginning of the year. Read more

National Bank of Poland on hold, again

National Bank of Poland on hold, again

The National Bank of Poland held rates at 5.75% today, in line with our pre-announcement call and consensus expectations. Read more

Monster US jobs print deals a blow to Fed easing bets

Monster US jobs print deals a blow to Fed easing bets

The US economy added a monstrous 353k jobs in January, beating consensus expectations of just 185k by a considerable margin. Read more

Monex’s February 2024 FX Forecasts

Monex’s February 2024 FX Forecasts

With markets having now unwound December’s moves, our FX analysts believe the scope for further US dollar appreciation looks more limited for February. Read more

Bank of England bides time before rate cuts

Bank of England bides time before rate cuts

The Bank of England held rates at their first policy meeting of the year, a move widely expected by markets and in line with our pre-announcement call. Read more

BCB stays the course despite new faces

BCB stays the course despite new faces

Yesterday, the BCB finally decided unanimously to cut the Selic rate by 50 basis points for the fifth consecutive time, to 11.25%. Read more

Eurozone disinflation hits a bump in the road

Eurozone disinflation hits a bump in the road

January’s preliminary eurozone inflation overshot expectations by 0.1pp, with headline CPI figures showing price growth of 2.8% on an annual basis. Read more

Fed takes next cautious step in the path to cuts

Fed takes next cautious step in the path to cuts

The Federal Reserve today held rates in the target range of 5.25-5.5% for the fourth consecutive meeting in a decision that was unanimously expected. Read more

Canadian economy looks set to rise from the ashes in Q4, albeit briefly

Canadian economy looks set to rise from the ashes in Q4, albeit briefly

Preliminary GDP data for Q4 shows the Canadian economy tracking at an annualised rate of 1.2% QoQ. Read more

National Bank of Hungary had its hands tied

National Bank of Hungary had its hands tied

The NBH has cut the base rate by 75bps to 10%, undershooting the widespread consensus that looked for a larger 100bp cut. Read more

Lagarde cracks open the door to earlier rate cuts

Lagarde cracks open the door to earlier rate cuts

In a move that surprised almost no-one, the ECB has held rates once again today, maintaining the deposit rate at 4.00% in line with market consensus. Read more

The CBRT delivers one final hike

The CBRT delivers one final hike

The CBRT has hiked the one-week repo rate by 250bp to 45.00%, in line with our call and market consensus. Read more

Norges Bank declares an end to policy tightening

Norges Bank declares an end to policy tightening

The Norges Bank has maintained the deposit rate at 4.50% as widely expected, in line with our pre-announcement call. Read more

The BoC pivot begins

The BoC pivot begins

The Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 5.00% in the first policy decision of the new year, in line with market consensus. Read more

European PMIs remain pointed in opposite directions

European PMIs remain pointed in opposite directions

A marginal uptick in eurozone PMIs does little to dispel the notion that the bloc is well and truly stuck in contraction. Read more

Sticky inflation set to keep the BoE on hold in early 2024

Sticky inflation set to keep the BoE on hold in early 2024

UK inflation reaccelerated in December, with headline price growth rising to 4.0% YoY, up from 3.9% the month prior, surprising the consensus. Read more

A rise in core inflation pressures likely means a hawkish BoC next week

A rise in core inflation pressures likely means a hawkish BoC next week

Canadian inflation accelerated in December, rising to 3.4% YoY in line with expectations, but still a 0.3pp increase on November’s 3.1% reading. Read more

The labour market continue to cool, but not fast enough to suggest imminent cuts from the BoE

The labour market continue to cool, but not fast enough to suggest imminent cuts from the BoE

UK wage data showed that pay pressures continue to cool, though not fast enough to see the Bank of England cutting rates until the second half of 2024. Read more

UK economy bounces back from October’s slumber

UK economy bounces back from October’s slumber

The UK economy grew by 0.3% in November, beating the 0.2% expansion anticipated by markets to completely reverse October’s decline. Read more

US CPI adds pressure to the market’s Fed view

US CPI adds pressure to the market’s Fed view

Both US headline and core inflation printed at 0.3% MoM in December, with the former landing 0.1pp above expectations and the latter in line with consensus. Read more

Macro Outlook 2024: Not so fast – dollar to decline but rout unlikely

Macro Outlook 2024: Not so fast – dollar to decline but rout unlikely

This year is set to see policy easing play out across most major economies, though our FX analysts foresee a bumpier ride than many are predicting for 2024. Read more

The NBP holds fire once again, as expected

The NBP holds fire once again, as expected

The National Bank of Poland kicked off the year by maintaining rates at 5.75%, in line with unanimous sell-side consensus and our own pre-release call. Read more

Fed to remain cautious on conflicting labour market signals

Fed to remain cautious on conflicting labour market signals

December’s nonfarm payrolls delivered a beat to expectations, coming in hotter-than-expected and posing a significant challenge to markets. Read more

The curious case of Canada’s jobs market

The curious case of Canada’s jobs market

The Canadian economy failed to add any jobs in December, with employment levels in full-time positions actually falling by 23.5k on the month. Read more

Fed meeting minutes show no signs of rate cut discussion, as intimated by Powell

Fed meeting minutes show no signs of rate cut discussion, as intimated by Powell

Since Powell’s press conference, members of the FOMC have been actively trying to push back on the market's dovish view. Read more

European PMIs point to divergent economic fortunes heading into the new year

European PMIs point to divergent economic fortunes heading into the new year

November’s PMI figures proved to be a false dawn for the eurozone, pointing to a less than merry Christmas for some European economies. Read more

ECB clings onto hawkish narrative, but moves on PEPP

ECB clings onto hawkish narrative, but moves on PEPP

The ECB unanimously held the deposit rate at 4%, despite simultaneously downgrading its 2024 growth, inflation, and core inflation forecasts. Read more

The Old Lady’s not for turning

The Old Lady’s not for turning

As expected, and unlike the Fed last night, the BoE resisted the urge to pivot to a more dovish monetary policy stance. Read more

Krone weakness pushes the Norges Bank to deliver a final hike

Krone weakness pushes the Norges Bank to deliver a final hike

The Norges Bank hiked the deposit rate by 25bps to 4.5% at its December meeting, defying the market consensus and our own call for the Bank to hold. Read more

SNB turns neutral on the franc

SNB turns neutral on the franc

The Swiss National Bank held rates on Sight Deposits at 1.75% for the second consecutive meeting, in line with broad market consensus. Read more

Rate cuts draw closer for the Fed as the economy seen cooling

Rate cuts draw closer for the Fed as the economy seen cooling

The Federal Reserve today tweaked its policy statement and Summary of Economic Projections in a progressively dovish direction. Read more

UK growth cools, but is set to recover

UK growth cools, but is set to recover

UK growth figures surprised to the downside, showing the economy shrank by 0.3% in October, below consensus estimates that looked for a 0.1% contraction. Read more

The pace of US disinflation starts to slow

The pace of US disinflation starts to slow

Disinflationary progress in the US effectively stalled in November, giving the Fed further evidence to turn to tomorrow to relay a more cautious message. Read more

UK wage growth cools, but not enough to shift the BoE

UK wage growth cools, but not enough to shift the BoE

UK labour market data delivered a downside surprise, confirming no further rate hikes are on the horizon from the Bank of England. Read more

November payrolls give Fed reason to be cautious

November payrolls give Fed reason to be cautious

The US economy added 199k jobs in November, up from 150k in October and marginally above consensus expectations of 183k. Read more

Wait-and-see at the NBP

Wait-and-see at the NBP

The National Bank of Poland has left policy on hold at 5.75% as expected in December, in line with our call and market consensus. Read more

BoC holds rates at 5%, delaying discussions of easing until 2024

BoC holds rates at 5%, delaying discussions of easing until 2024

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 5% today for the third successive meeting since it resumed its hiking cycle back earlier this year. Read more

Canadian labour market loosens despite strong job growth

Canadian labour market loosens despite strong job growth

November’s jobs report marks another mixed data release out of Canada. Headline employment growth once again proved strong. Read more

Monex’s December 2023 FX Forecasts

Monex’s December 2023 FX Forecasts

Whilst our FX analysts maintain a bearish view on the US dollar from mid-2024 onwards, they continue to envisage a stronger dollar heading into 24Q2. Read more

Choppy GDP data risks masking underlying weakness in Canadian economy

Choppy GDP data risks masking underlying weakness in Canadian economy

The first estimate of Q3 GDP showed the Canadian economy contracting -0.3% QoQ, or -1.1% in annualised terms. Read more

ECB’s 2% inflation target is in sight

ECB’s 2% inflation target is in sight

The flash estimate of euro area inflation for November confirmed the disinflationary signals from the national data released over the past day. Read more

UK economy accelerates in November

UK economy accelerates in November

November’s flash PMIs once again support Monex's view that the UK economy is merely in a state of stagnation as opposed to outright contraction. Read more

Riksbank gambles on external conditions keeping the krona supported

Riksbank gambles on external conditions keeping the krona supported

The Riksbank hit a pause on policy tightening this morning, leaving the main policy rate at 4.00% in a move that defied consensus expectations. Read more

Weak growth in Europe is starting to impact the labour market

Weak growth in Europe is starting to impact the labour market

The general theme across November’s flash eurozone PMIs is that the continued slowdown in economic growth is starting to manifest within the labour market. Read more

The Chancellor manages to deliver a modest surprise in the Autumn Statement

The Chancellor manages to deliver a modest surprise in the Autumn Statement

Despite largely confirming pre-announcement expectations, today’s Autumn Statement was somewhat more generous than many had initially anticipated. Read more

Inflation cools considerably in Canada at the start of Q4

Inflation cools considerably in Canada at the start of Q4

Canadian headline CPI fell 0.7 percentage points to 3.1% YoY at the start of the fourth quarter, in line with economist expectations. This largely reflected lower gasoline prices (-7.8% YoY). Read more

UK inflation falls sharply as expected, adding to the probability of a soft landing

UK inflation falls sharply as expected, adding to the probability of a soft landing

This morning's October CPI print saw UK inflation decelerate sharply, fractionally undershooting the market consensus. Read more

US core services inflation cools, sparking a relief rally against the dollar

US core services inflation cools, sparking a relief rally against the dollar

US headline inflation fell from 3.7% to 3.2% YoY in October following a flat month-on-month reading, but the focus for markets remains on the core index. Read more

UK wages continue to slow under the surface, despite a headline beat

UK wages continue to slow under the surface, despite a headline beat

Whilst this morning’s UK labour market data release surprised to the upside on headline measures, the details of the report provide plenty of good news. Read more

Inflation in Sweden isn’t as worse as feared, but that shouldn’t stop the Riksbank from hiking

Inflation in Sweden isn’t as worse as feared, but that shouldn’t stop the Riksbank from hiking

October’s inflation data out of Sweden undershot analyst expectations but continued to outpace the central bank’s September projections. Read more

Banxico dial down the hawkish guidance, consistent with early 2024 rate cuts

Banxico dial down the hawkish guidance, consistent with early 2024 rate cuts

Banxico kept rates on hold at 11.25% at its November meeting in line with consensus and our forecast. Read more

UK growth exceeds expectations to flatline in Q3

UK growth exceeds expectations to flatline in Q3

UK GDP figures out this morning revealed a surprise 0.2% economic expansion in September, enough to keep the economy from contracting in the third quarter. Read more

Sticky services inflation to keep Banxico on hold

Sticky services inflation to keep Banxico on hold

Headline inflation in Mexico continued to fall in October, in both annual and sequential terms. That is, risks to their inflation forecasts remain tilted to the upside. Read more

NBP leaves rates unchanged in a first post election policy decision

NBP leaves rates unchanged in a first post election policy decision

The National Bank of Poland has maintained the base rate at 5.75%, a surprise for markets that had projected a further 25bp cut to policy rates. Read more

Monex’s November 2023 FX Forecasts

Monex’s November 2023 FX Forecasts

November looks like it could bring much of the same as October, with the dollar's path higher set to remain stymied at least in part by rate dynamics. Read more

Monex’s October 2023 FX Forecasts

Monex’s October 2023 FX Forecasts

This month, growth concerns predominate across advanced economies, whilst policy easing is increasingly a focus for emerging market central banks. Read more

The race to the bottom begins for CE3 central banks

The race to the bottom begins for CE3 central banks

For CE3 economies, the focus of monetary policy is now definitively on the prospect of rate cuts. Read more

Monex’s September 2023 FX Forecasts

Monex’s September 2023 FX Forecasts

Our Monex analysts continue to favour the greenback against yield (JPY) and growth sensitive (EUR and CNY) currencies over the next month. Read more

Monex’s August 2023 FX Forecasts

Monex’s August 2023 FX Forecasts

With the risk of the Fed hiking once more in Q4 still credible, we expect the shallow and bumpy downtrend in the dollar to continue throughout Q3. Read more

Expect more GBP downside on underwhelming BoE

Expect more GBP downside on underwhelming BoE

Our analysts expect the Bank of England will hike 25bp in August following weak inflation data leading to further depreciation in the pound. Read more

Monex’s July 2023 FX Forecasts 

Monex’s July 2023 FX Forecasts 

Although the global tightening cycle is approaching its final phase, monetary policy remains one of the primary drivers of FX market price action. Read more

Monex’s June 2023 FX Forecasts

Monex’s June 2023 FX Forecasts

Market price action over the past month was dominated by the twin themes of political dysfunction and economic convergence. Read more

Monex’s May 2023 FX Forecasts

Monex’s May 2023 FX Forecasts

With central banks in the US and elsewhere hitting the end of their hiking cycles, we see near-term policy expectations losing some impact on FX volatility. Read more

Monex’s April 2023 FX Forecasts

Monex’s April 2023 FX Forecasts

Whilst our FX Analysts' March forecasts have broadly panned out, it was the driving force behind these moves that came as a surprise to them. Read more

Monex’s March 2023 FX Forecasts

Monex’s March 2023 FX Forecasts

Our FX analysts expect a reversal in some of February's price action on the back of reduced upside risk to US rates and potentially reduced volatility within the space. Here's a look at the latest Monex FX Forecasts for March 2023. Read more

Monex’s February 2023 FX Forecasts

Monex’s February 2023 FX Forecasts

The market's repositioning has been quite aggressive to date, leading us to believe that the dollar is overdue a period of consolidation in the near-term. Read more

Macro Outlook 2023: The macro climate remains challenging for investors

Macro Outlook 2023: The macro climate remains challenging for investors

Following a volatile year defined by rising inflation pressures, the macro environment is unlikely to ease up for investors in 2023. Read more

Monex’s December 2022 FX Forecasts

Monex’s December 2022 FX Forecasts

Our house view has now shifted tactically neutral on the US dollar in the near term and await a shift in structural factors to trigger a secular decline in the dollar. Read more

Monex’s November 2022 FX Forecasts

Monex’s November 2022 FX Forecasts

For now, our outlook on the dollar remains constructive until jobs and inflation data allow the Fed to downshift. Read more

Monex’s October 2022 FX Forecasts

Monex’s October 2022 FX Forecasts

Although a high level of bond market volatility is filtering through to FX markets our analysts believe the dollar has a structural basis to grind higher in Q4. Read more

Week Ahead: Fire sale in markets may not ease despite thinner data calendar

Week Ahead: Fire sale in markets may not ease despite thinner data calendar

In the week ahead, the economic calendar dies down slightly, although the start to the week might not be frictionless as traders return with the results of Italy’s latest election. Read more

SGD Outlook: Singapore dollar to rally against currency basket on MAS tightening

SGD Outlook: Singapore dollar to rally against currency basket on MAS tightening

In spite of the fundamentals, the risks to our USDSGD outlook skew to the downside as APAC central banks may intervene in FX markets to prevent excessive depreciation in their respective currencies. Read more

Monex’s September 2022 FX Forecasts

Monex’s September 2022 FX Forecasts

Our forecasts are more bullish on the dollar as we no longer expect the Fed’s downshift to 50bps in September to be as supportive for risk conditions. Read more

Monex’s August 2022 FX Forecasts

Monex’s August 2022 FX Forecasts

DXY index is likely to stay supported, owing to our expectation that the euro-area’s growth outlook will force another run on parity this month. Read more

Monex’s July 2022 FX Forecasts

Monex’s July 2022 FX Forecasts

Read Monex's July 2022 FX Forecasts. Find our what our top forecasters expect for currency markets, amid ongoing recession concerns and higher inflation. Read more

Monex’s June 2022 FX Forecasts

Monex’s June 2022 FX Forecasts

Read Monex's June 2022 FX Forecasts. Find our what our top forecasters expect for currency markets, amid ongoing global growth and inflation concerns. Read more

Monex’s May 2022 FX Forecasts

Monex’s May 2022 FX Forecasts

Read Monex's May 2022 FX Forecasts. Find our what our top forecasters expect for currency markets, amid current geopolitical events and uncertain conditions. Read more

CAD Outlook: Loonie strength to continue in Q2 on higher oil and BoC support

CAD Outlook: Loonie strength to continue in Q2 on higher oil and BoC support

The Canadian dollar has been highly sensitive to monetary policy actions and price action in global commodities over the course of Q1. Under our base case for commodities and the Bank of Canada in Q2, which envisages two 50bp hikes, we believe gains in the Canadian dollar are likely to continue. However, our flatter forecast for the BoC policy rate in H2 will likely weigh on the loonie at the margin as the pace of Fed tightening overtakes that of the Bank of Canada. Read more

Monex’s April 2022 FX Forecasts

Monex’s April 2022 FX Forecasts

While the limited progress in peace talks towards the end of the month blurred the overall dollar dynamics due to a positive boost to regional risk sentiment, we still expect some of the dominant drivers of FX markets from March to remain in play in April. Read more

EUR Update: European currencies battered by latest Russia-Ukraine headlines – is there a floor?

EUR Update: European currencies battered by latest Russia-Ukraine headlines – is there a floor?

Since the publication of our latest FX forecasts at the beginning of the month, significant developments in the Russia-Ukraine war have put increased pressure on European currencies and equities. Over the last month, the respective currencies of these nations have therefore performed even worse than the euro. The question now is; where will price action stabilise? Read more

CHF Update: Consolidation below parity in EURCHF is unlikely

CHF Update: Consolidation below parity in EURCHF is unlikely

While the Swiss franc is considered a global safe haven, we have long argued that its haven attributes are more acute during periods of regional risk. This has been visible over the past weeks, as rising political and economic risks have significantly impacted the European growth outlook. Read more

Monex’s March 2022 FX Forecasts

Monex’s March 2022 FX Forecasts

Geopolitical events are likely to continue driving FX markets in the near-term and with no clear end game as things stand, our forecasts remain under review. Our base case scenario at present is that the pace of geopolitical developments slow in March, but recent events result in a material deterioration in Europe’s macroeconomic backdrop and a still tentative risk environment. Read more

EUR Update: Fluid backdrop to keep volatility elevated

EUR Update: Fluid backdrop to keep volatility elevated

The ongoing political risk in Europe means EURUSD is going to remain an easy target within the G10, while rising US Treasury yields the euro’s sensitivity to them will also be a risk. Looking over to H2, an improvement in global growth conditions will be more deterministic for the euro when the monetary outlook and political backdrop has become more stable. Read more

Monex’s February 2022 FX Forecasts

Monex’s February 2022 FX Forecasts

Looking ahead, our FX analysts expect the dollar’s strength to be more nuanced in February and for it to be isolated against currencies where rates are likely to lag the rise in US rates. In our forecasts, this largely pertains to EUR, JPY and CNY. Read more

BRL Outlook: Hawkish BCB to offset depreciation, but political risks may tip the balance

BRL Outlook: Hawkish BCB to offset depreciation, but political risks may tip the balance

As the year progresses, the Brazilian general elections that are set to be held in October will become increasingly relevant for FX markets given the real’s reputation of weakening in times of political uncertainty and upcoming elections. Read more

USD Outlook: Factoring in the stall in hawkish Fed pricing

USD Outlook: Factoring in the stall in hawkish Fed pricing

Since the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, the DXY index has fallen by 1.5% despite data released over the same timeframe for December showing the unemployment rate falling below 4% and inflation data rising to a near 40-year high. Read more

Monex’s 12 key market themes for 2022

Monex’s 12 key market themes for 2022

Trade ideas tend to have a short shelflife in today's market, so instead of issuing trade suggestions for 2022, we have opted to outline the main themes we think will dominate market price action in the coming 12 months. Read more

Monex January 2022 FX Forecasts

Monex January 2022 FX Forecasts

Looking ahead to 2022, our forecasts have been adjusted to take into account the new sensitivities of central banks to inflation, continuing virus risks and the likely slowdown in growth in Q1. Omicron risk continues to dominate as policymakers conduct a balancing act in order to mitigate the health and economic impacts. Read more

Monex December 2021 FX Forecasts

Monex December 2021 FX Forecasts

The Omicron variant has certainly thrown another spanner in the works for our currency forecasts. With little information known about the efficacy rate of vaccines against the Omicron variant and therefore the impact it will have on global growth, we project our near-term forecasts based on the scenario of no substantial deterioration in Covid conditions towards year-end. Read more

Projected rate paths are key for NZD and SEK

Projected rate paths are key for NZD and SEK

Next week (22nd - 26th November), focus remains on how markets price central bank tolerances to inflation and global growth conditions as Covid cases begin to rise and force major nations to impose tighter containment measures. Read more

US CPI keeps markets volatile following the central bank bonanza

US CPI keeps markets volatile following the central bank bonanza

Next week (15th - 19th November), CPI remains top of mind as a number of nations are set to release reports highlighting above target price growth, however, we believe these releases will have less of an impact on broader markets relative to the US release this week. Additionally, central banks from South Africa and Turkey are expected to deliver fresh rate decisions.  Read more

RUB: Positive outlook riddled with risk

RUB: Positive outlook riddled with risk

While most arrows point in favour of a RUB rally, a major downside risk to the currency outlook has emerged as the Covid case count, along with related deaths and hospitalisations, stand at record-highs and first steps have been taken to slow the surge. Read more

ECB and Fed speakers in scope after dovish retaliation

ECB and Fed speakers in scope after dovish retaliation

Next week (8th - 12th November), despite the absence of any major central bank meetings, the focus will remain on monetary policy pricing, especially as the Fed’s media blackout period ends. Notable speeches from Chicago Fed Evans and San Francisco’s Daly will be in scope for US rate traders, while opening remarks from the ECB’s Chief Economist Lane will be top of mind for euro money markets. Read more

NOK and SEK to rise further before rally tops out

NOK and SEK to rise further before rally tops out

Looking ahead, we expect both NOK and SEK to remain strong until year-end, but next year could see more limited gains as the procyclical rally is expected to be less pronounced than previously thought given downgrades to global growth. Read more

The central bank magic trick: turning a dove into a hawk in plain sight

The central bank magic trick: turning a dove into a hawk in plain sight

Price action in G10 FX markets this week has been driven predominantly by pricing in bond markets and the actions of central banks. This dynamic is set to continue next week (1st - 5th November) as the battle against rising inflation migrates from the Bank of Canada and the ECB  to the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England. Read more

Central banks to take centre stage ahead of crucial GDP readings

Central banks to take centre stage ahead of crucial GDP readings

A flurry of central bank meetings take will place across the globe next week (25th - 29th October), while Q3 GDP prints from the US and eurozone will take centre stage on Friday. Several countries will also release inflation readings. Among the central bank meetings are the Bank of Canada, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank - in order of importance. Read more

EUR Update: Euro weighed down by near-term factors, medium-term outlook rosier

EUR Update: Euro weighed down by near-term factors, medium-term outlook rosier

While September’s losses were significant at over 2%, we expect the pressure on the euro to ease over the coming months as supply pressures mitigate, which should help to cool inflation and aid growth conditions. We expect the combination of these developments to be supportive for EURUSD. Read more

Economic activity and inflation data put stagflation fears to the test 

Economic activity and inflation data put stagflation fears to the test 

Next week (18th - 22nd October), the data calendar revolves around October’s preliminary PMI prints, while China’s Q3 GDP data also scans as one of the more interesting releases. The focus on activity data is likely to be heightened given growth concerns over previous weeks and the impact higher input costs are having. This is especially the case in the eurozone, UK, and China, where rising energy costs are the most pronounced. Read more

USD Update: Defiant dollar in Q4

USD Update: Defiant dollar in Q4

Our latest forecasts now see the DXY index trading a percentage point lower than current spot levels and back towards highs of its previous trading range as the aggressive repricing in FX markets overextended in early October given our views on back-end US rates this year. Read more

Macro backdrop of slower growth and rising inflation set to dominate FX markets

Macro backdrop of slower growth and rising inflation set to dominate FX markets

Next week (11th - 15th October), with a limited data calendar, markets are likely to continue focusing on the inflation backdrop and the impact it will have on growth conditions. We take a brief look at the environment in Europe this week and what it means for ECB and BoE pricing. Read more

Grappling with the stagflationary backdrop

Grappling with the stagflationary backdrop

Next week (4th - 8th October), the central banks’ assessments of the stagflationary environment will be in focus for markets, especially as traders adjust positions following this week’s aggressive price adjustments. Read more

KRW Update: Further won weakness to be limited

KRW Update: Further won weakness to be limited

A combination of slowing semiconductor exports, higher yields in the DM space, and a resurgence of Covid-19, have all contributed to the unwind in aggressive USDKRW short positioning this year. Read more

From policy announcements to central bank speakers

From policy announcements to central bank speakers

Next week (27th September - 1st October), the focus quickly shifts from policy announcements to individual central bankers as a swathe of speakers fill the economic calendar, largely due to the ECB’s forum on central banking taking place between the 28th and 29th of September. Rather than being in Sintra (Portugal) as has been customary, the event will take place online. Read more

Monetary policy in scope with FOMC minutes and ECB strategy review

Monetary policy in scope with FOMC minutes and ECB strategy review

This week (5th - 9th July), the meeting minutes from the Fed’s June meeting will be scoured by market participants as they try to gain a clearer view on future US interest rates, and the ECB’s Governing Council is set to also meet next week in Frankfurt to discuss the ongoing policy review. Read more