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The dollar comes roaring back
Next week, we have the RBNZ, US CPI, and Canadian jobs at the top of the docket. Market confirmation could also see further dollar upside. Read more
Hot jobs data demolishes odds of a jumbo rate cut
The September jobs report smashed expectations across the board – and should kill off any prospect of another 50bp cut from the Fed this year. Read more
Payrolls front and centre for the dollar
A US jobs report is the main event for today, and a pivotal release for the Fed. Markets are looking for a headline 150k jobs added in September. Read more
Monex’s October 2024 FX Forecasts
Several key developments last month give us confidence that our underlying thesis remains intact, retaining our forecast for a stronger dollar this month. Read more
The dollar climb continues
The dollar spent another day posting gains on Wednesday, with the DXY index rising 0.6%. Read more
Middle East tensions boost the dollar
Headlines out of the Middle East saw markets rapidly turn their attention to escalation risk, propelling the dollar higher on a haven bid. Read more
Eurozone inflation dips below target
Headline inflation in the eurozone cooled to 1.8% in September, a sharp drop from the 2.2% recorded in August. Read more
A hawkish Powell propels the dollar higher
After what looked to be a slow start to the week, the dollar ended Monday trading on a high, helped largely by comments from Chair Powell overnight. Read more
Nonfarms in focus for the Fed
Next week, Fed easing and eurozone inflation should be in focus, alongside geopolitical risks, with the main event on Friday of US jobs data. Read more
Jobs data key for the Fed and the dollar
US Jobs data should be the focus for FX markets this week, with Fed expectations still in the driving seat for the dollar. Read more
US recession risks continue to look overstated
With yesterday’s upward revision in hand, our Monex analysts are inclined to think that imminent US recession risks look even more overstated this morning. Read more
SNB eases, but not by enough to weaken the franc
The SNB has trimmed the policy rate by 0.25%, in line with market consensus and our own pre-announcement call. Read more
The dollar pares losses ahead of a bonanza of Fed speakers
The Fed is still front of mind for traders, so with no fewer than seven Fed speakers on the docket, it should be a busy day for FX markets. Read more
Weaker USD
The US dollar lost ground against most of its major peers yesterday as US consumer confidence fell sharply. Read more
Calm after the Fed’s storm
With the market still digesting the Fed’s cut last week, USD is lower across the board, and is is close to its lowest level since July 2023. Read more
Global PMI data in focus
Global PMI data is in focus for FX traders this morning, as today sees the release of both UK and eurozone PMI data. Read more
Fed cutting remains the focus
Next week is set to be another busy week too. Rate decisions are expected from the Riksbank, the SNB, and Banxico, with cuts likely across the board. Read more
Central Banks aplenty
The S&P 500 closed at a record high yesterday as investors bet that the Fed’s large 50bp rate cut would help deliver a soft landing for the US economy. Read more
The BoE holds on, while sterling breaks YTD highs
The MPC voted 8-1 to maintain Bank Rate at 5.00% in their latest policy decision, matching our own call and market expectations. Read more
The Fed fixes its July mistake
The big news overnight, and the event everyone had been waiting for, saw the Fed cut rates by 50bps, taking the target Fed funds range to 4.75-5.00%. Read more
The Fed cuts by 50bps, but why rush?
The FOMC surprised at least some in markets, including ourselves, kicking off their easing cycle with a 50bp rate cut. Read more
Judgement Day for the Fed
The Fed is the only story in town for FX markets right now. The debate around easing by 25bps or 50bps has reached a fever pitch in recent days. Read more
UK CPI growth remains unchanged in August
UK CPI rose by 2.2% YoY in August, matching market expectations, but tracking 0.2% below the rate projected in Bank of England staff forecasts. Read more
Canadian inflation cools, worryingly so in the details
Canadian inflation continues to soften, and soften faster than expected, reinforcing calls for the BoC to up the pace of easing to 50bp increments. Read more
Retail sales the final data point ahead of the Fed
With Wednesday's Fed decision hanging in the balance, at least according to market pricing, today’s US retail sales data now takes on extra emphasis. Read more
A 50bp Fed cut hangs in the balance
As of the morning, a 50bp rate cut is the base case, at least according to Fed Funds Futures. That said, a word of caution on this score. Read more
Dollar unloved, but perhaps not for much longer
Next week brings the event we have all been waiting for. The Fed will almost certainly begin to cut rates, with our Monex analysts thinking by 25bps. Read more
The ECB cuts, but the euro still scans as rich
The ECB cut rates by 25bps as expected on Thursday, the second such move this year. More surprising, however, were revisions to staff forecasts. Read more
The ECB cuts, but hawkish forecast revisions boost the euro
The ECB cuts the deposit rate by 25bps, as expected, and in line with our own pre-announcement call. Read more
US core CPI comes in hot, supporting the dollar
The dollar finished Tuesday trading on the front foot, helped by August’s core CPI which printed at 0.3% MoM, marginally stronger than markets had expected. Read more
US core CPI exceeds expectations, but does little to shift the outlook
US core prices grew by 0.3% MoM in August, beating consensus estimates that looked for a 0.2% print. Read more
A Harris victory sees the dollar slip
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the debate between Harris and Trump dominates the newspaper front pages this morning. Read more
The dollar starts the week on the front foot despite an inconclusive jobs report
The greenback drifted higher to start the new week as markets continued to digest Friday’s August jobs numbers. Read more
UK wage growth continues to cool, albeit slowly
With July wage data meeting consensus expectations, markets are no clearer on the next move for Bank Rate ahead of a policy announcement on September 19th. Read more
The dollar starts the week on the front foot despite an inconclusive jobs report
A modest paring of Fed easing expectations has seen the dollar start the week on the front foot, with the DXY index up 0.2% this morning. Read more
Too early for a sustained dollar turnaround
In the coming week, US CPI data should be the focus, as well as the ECB, UK jobs data and LatAm CPI. Read more
Payrolls soft, but probably not soft enough for 50bps
The US economy added 142k jobs in August, marginally less than the 165k expected. Today’s data was less than conclusive ahead of the next FOMC decision. Read more
Nonfarm payrolls to determine the next Fed steps
Payrolls later today remain the main market event of the week, as many see the release as pivotal for the Fed. Read more
The BoC cuts, again
The Bank of Canada has cut rates by 25bp for the third successive meeting, taking the policy rate to 4.25%, matching consensus expectations. Read more
Monex’s September 2024 FX Forecasts
Our analysts believe there is a risk of overinterpreting the dollar’s slide through August’s muted trading conditions and expect a reassessment in September. Read more
All eyes on August NFPs
The primary focus for markets is likely to remain on the US this week, with the dollar still front and centre as traders return from summer holidays. Read more
Focus on the fallout from Jackson Hole
The fallout from Jackson Hole is likely to be a dominant theme to start next week too, with CPI prints from Australia and the eurozone, and Canadian GDP. Read more
Growth differentials continue to favour GBPEUR upside
European economic activity expanded by more than expected in August, according to the latest flash PMI numbers. Read more
Canadian rail strikes pose a tail risk to the loonie
Canadian freight rail could grind to a halt due to strike action in the coming days, posing downside risks to both the economy and the loonie. Read more
Further disinflation progress for the BoC
Canadian inflation slowed to 2.5% in July, matching consensus estimates and confirming expectations for a rate cut from the BoC next month. Read more
The Riksbank signals more cuts coming
The Riksbank cut rates by 25bps at its latest policy meeting, matching market expectations and our own pre-announcement call. Read more
The dollar looks cheap ahead of Jackson Hole
While, Canadian CPI, August PMIs, and a Riksbank decision will all offer some entertainment, the focus for traders should be on Jackson Hole. Read more
Krone weakness keeps the Norges Bank hawkish for now
The Norges Bank has maintained the deposit Rate at 4.50%, matching market consensus and our own pre-announcement call. Read more
US CPI rebounds to dent odds of a jumbo September rate cut
In the US, today's CPI data release shows July’s core inflation meets expectations after two successive months of downside misses. Read more
July inflation cools more than expected, supporting calls for September easing
UK inflation rose less than expected in July, further supporting a September cut to Bank Rate after yesterday’s mixed set of labour market prints. Read more
Mixed signals for the MPC
We think policymakers can look through a surprise drop in unemployment, keeping the Bank of England on track to cut rates 2-3 more times this year. Read more
A calmer week (hopefully) coming up
All told, barring an escalation in geopolitical risks over the weekend, the upcoming week looks like a calmer setup after last week’s chaos. Read more
Monex’s August 2024 FX Forecasts
The end of the month and beginning of August, has seen numerous events combined in a perfect storm to see a notable uptick in market volatility. Read more
How soft is too soft for the labour market?
After a busier week than expected, next week sees the data calendar dry up, with few top-tier data releases, and central bank speakers noticeably absent. Read more
Grim NFPs put recession risks in play
Today’s nonfarm payrolls heavily undershot market expectations by a significant distance, landing at just 114k. Read more
The BoE cuts, but only just
The MPC has cut Bank Rate to 5.00%, meeting market expectations, but frustrating our call that had looked for a first rate cut in September. Read more
Fed cuts get closer
The FOMC held rates at 5.25%-5.50% once again today, matching market consensus and our own pre-decision call. Read more
A September rate cut is still on the cards from the ECB, despite July’s CPI beat
Eurozone inflation delivered a marginal beat in July, but September easing is still on the cards for the ECB. Read more
Politics takes a back seat as monetary policy returns to centre stage
Traders are set to receive policy decisions from the Fed, the BoJ, the BCB, and the BoE in the coming week, alongside EU inflation and a US jobs report. Read more
The US economy remains exceptional, for now
The first reading for US Q2 GDP smashed expectations, indicating a brisk expansion in economic activity after a slow start to the year. Read more
Cutting remarks from Macklem
The Bank of Canada has delivered a 25bp cut for the second consecutive meeting, talking policy rates from 4.75% to 4.50%, in line with market consensus. Read more
Eurozone growth continues to disappoint as the UK outperforms
The expansion in eurozone private sector activity ground to a halt in July according to the latest flash PMI indicators. Read more
Political risk just won’t go away
In the coming week, the US looks set to remain in focus. On the data front, markets await US Q2 GDP, a BoC policy decision and European PMIs. Read more
A September cut remains the base case
To almost no one’s surprise, the Governing Council has kept all three key ECB interest rates unchanged in their July policy decision. Read more
Labour market data hints at cooling, but not enough to cut next month
UK labour market data met consensus expectations to show wage growth cooled modestly in May, but likely not by enough to see the BoE cut rates next month. Read more
The pound pops on hot June CPI data
UK inflation stabilised at 2% in June to throw the prospects of an August rate cut into yet more doubt, as price growth marginally outperformed expectations. Read more
Back-to-back cuts incoming from the BoC
The Bank of Canada should cut rates later this month based on June’s CPI figures. Today’s data confirms that May’s inflation uptick was a blip. Read more
Inflation reclaims centre stage
Next week, a busier data calendar should keep market attention on G10 currencies other than the dollar, with the main focus on the ECB's policy decision. Read more
The dollar drops on further soft inflation data
Another sharp drop in the US price growth figures for June all but confirms a Fed rate cut in September, and likely another cut later this year as well. Read more
US labour market cools at a steady pace
Today’s jobs report proved net neutral for dollar, and we suspect, for the FOMC. The headline nonfarm payrolls readings showed 206k jobs added in June. Read more
The BoC remains on track for back-to-back cuts
The Labour Force Survey once again stands out as the best indicator of Canada’s underlying cyclical position, which is weak. Read more
A Labour landslide does little for sterling
The Labour party secured a majority in yesterday’s General Election, winning 410 seats in the House of Commons, with six constituencies left to declare. Read more
Imported deflation to keep SNB leaning against a strong CHF
The Swiss National Bank’s decision to cut rates for a second successive time in June was finely balanced. Read more
The NBP delivers more of the same
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) maintained the base rate at 5.75% for the ninth meeting in a row, matching both our own expectations and market consensus. Read more
Monex’s July 2024 FX Forecasts
Our analysts have pushed back their expectations for the dollar's decline when looking at the backdrop for G10 and EMs regarding risks and politics. Read more
April’s GDP report doesn’t tip the balance for the BoC
Having flatlined in March, Canada’s economy returned to growth in April, with both the manufacturing and services sectors expanding 0.3% on the month. Read more
Banxico delivers a dovish pause
Yesterday, Banxico's Board of Governors decided to hold its benchmark interest rate at 11% for the second consecutive meeting. Read more
The Riksbank delivers a dovish hold
The Riksbank has kept rates unchanged at 3.75%, as was widely expected, in their latest policy decision. Read more
Brazil inflation cools in June, but the BCB to remain on hold through summer
After surprising at May's meeting with a 25 basis point cut, the BCB vote unanimously to keep the Selic rate at 10.50% for the first time this easing cycle. Read more
Spike in Canadian inflation doesn’t mark a departure from trend
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, headline inflation in Canada grew by 0.56% month-on-month in May, beating expectations by six tenths of a percent. Read more
Bank of England treads water before August
As widely expected, the Bank of England maintained Bank Rate at 5.25% at today’s meeting. Read more
BCB cuts are interrupted
For the first time in the current cycle of cuts, the BCB decided to hold rates, leaving the Selic rate at 10.50%. Read more
Another hawkish hold in Norway
The Norges Bank maintained rates at 4.50% at its June decision, matching market expectations although guidance accompanying today’s decision skewed hawkish. Read more
SNB cuts again as it takes aim at the strong franc
The Swiss National Bank retained its position as the most dovish G10 central bank today as it cut rates for a second time this cycle by 25bps to 1.25%. Read more
Stable in the storm
Our Monex analysts expect the RBI to continue sterilising capital inflows by increasing their FX reserves, mobilising them to combat depreciation pressures. Read more
Sticky services a concern for the BoE
Headline inflation dropped to 2.0% in May, returning to the Bank of England’s target for the first time since July 2021. Read more
The NBH eases into a new approach to rate cuts
The National Bank of Hungary has cut rates by a further 25bp at their June interest rate announcement, meeting market expectations. Read more
From hero to zero
Our Monex analysts suspect that the high levels of the MXN seen over the last few months that earned it the nickname "super peso" are now unachievable. Read more
GBPEUR set to stay in a new, higher range
GBPEUR has broken out of a near 2-year range, driven by widening interest rate differentials and greater political risk on the continent. Read more
Fed: It’s (still) too early to say with confidence
The Federal Reserve unanimously kept its target range for the Federal funds rate on hold at 5.25-5.5% today. Read more
Sudden stop in US core inflation resurrects odds of a September cut
After pressures intensified in the early 2024, underlying US inflation is now easing sharply. Read more
BCB to hold as May inflation data validates upside inflation concerns
The publication of the Brazilian National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) data for May confirmed our suspicions that disinflationary progress is set to slow. Read more
UK wage growth stabilises in April, but doesn’t bring forward BoE easing
Average weekly earnings in the UK grew by an average of 5.9% in the three months to April when compared to a year earlier. Read more
Today’s nonfarms beat kills off chances that the Fed cuts in July
Today’s US nonfarm payrolls overshot expectations to print at 272k, above the 180k expected by markets, and well in excess of the 165k jobs added in April. Read more
Slack continues to build in the Canadian labour market, keeping the BoC on track for multiple cuts
Canadian unemployment rate rises yet another 0.1percentage points to 6.2%, leaving it 1.1pp above the lows seen during the post-pandemic recovery. Read more
ECB commences easing cycle but provides little future guidance
The European Central Bank joined its peers in Switzerland, Sweden, and Canada by cutting its policy rate by 25 bps, bringing the deposit rate to 3.75%. Read more
Staying bearish on weak cyclicals
Given the recent rate cut by the Bank of Canada, our analysts expect a deeper easing cycle from the BoC this year and are bearish on the loonie's outlook. Read more
The Bank of Canada delivers the first of many cuts
The Bank of Canada today cut its overnight policy rate by 25bps to 4.75%, having previously held rates at a terminal level of 5% since July last year. Read more
Monex’s June 2024 FX Forecasts
Our analysts expect central bank policy to remain firmly in the spotlight in June, whilst traders will also be paying close attention to upcoming elections. Read more
GDP provides no reason for the BoC to hold
Today's Q1 GDP report has just killed the economic reacceleration argument in favour of the Bank of Canada holding rates next week. Read more
The krone’s ascent is just getting started
The Norwegian krone has struggled throughout the hiking cycle, with the impact of higher external rates offsetting a rally in oil. Read more
An improving outlook should support THB recovery in H2
The Thai baht has been the second worst performing Asian currency since the start of 2024, having fallen almost 6% against the dollar. Read more
Eurozone data supports the ECB hawks at the margin
Today is a big day as far as the ECB is concerned, with not one but two key pieces of data being published this morning. Read more
UK PMIs signal further normalisation to come
Flash May PMIs signal a deceleration in UK growth after a surprisingly strong set of April figures, accompanied by signals of economic normalisation. Read more
April CPI should kill off prospects for a June cut from the BoE
The latest UK inflation figures show that price growth eased at a slower pace than expected in April, with all notable measures beating market expectations. Read more
NBH delivers another 50bp cut
The National Bank of Hungary today cut interest rates by 50bps for the second consecutive meeting, taking the base rate to 7.25%. Read more
It’s time for the BoC to begin cutting rates
Annual rates of inflation in Canada are now all back within the BoC’s target range, supporting an imminent commencement to the Bank’s easing cycle. Read more
All set for a sterling year
The UK no longer looks like an inflationary outlier, with activity readings signalling a strong rebound in growth. Read more
The tide may be turning on US inflation
Core measures of US inflation have resumed trending in the right direction for Fed cuts, but remain uncomfortably high in level terms. Read more
Swedish CPI does little to alter the Riksbank’s path
April’s inflation data out of Sweden this morning marginally undershot expectations once again. Read more
UK wage data offers little insight for the BoE
UK wage growth overshot expectations in March, with headline readings showing no further cooling relative to February. Read more
Canada’s bumper job growth doesn’t change the outlook for the BoC
After months of relatively benign employment growth, the Canadian economy was seen adding 90.4k jobs in April. Read more
Banxico keeps rates steady and firm
After Banxico's Board of Governors decided to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in March, they held rates steady yesterday. Read more
Goodbye to unanimity: fiscal policy sows discord and leads the BCB to cut by 25bps
Despite explicitly guiding markets to a final 50bps cut in May at its March meeting, the BCB reneged on this guidance by cutting the Selic rate by 25bps. Read more
The BoE stays on hold, for now
Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to maintain Bank Rate at 5.25% comes as little surprise to markets. Read more
The Riksbank joins the easing club
The Riksbank delivers a hawkish rate cut, against our expectations but in line with market consensus. Read more
Payrolls data delivers a blow to narrative of US inflation persistence
Just as markets were settling into the narrative that the US economy remained hot, fuelling concerns over inflation persistence, the data has begun to cool. Read more
Monex’s May 2024 FX Forecasts
We believe the pace of USD appreciation is likely to slow over the course of Q2 as investors and central banks remain wary of a stronger dollar. Read more
Powell promotes higher for longer stance
Unsurprisingly, the Fed maintained rates at 5.25-5.50%, in line with market consensus and our own pre-announcement call. Read more
The ECB’s debate over July rages on
With most ECB members publicly accepting that they will cut rates in June, the debate has swiftly moved onto the July meeting. Read more
The tide is finally turning for the lira
The Turkish lira has been depreciating on a trend basis ever since the onset of the pandemic, driven domestically by a combination of factors. Read more
Monetary policy to return as a primary driver for EURSEK
Despite our expectations that EURSEK would retrace lower this month to stabilise around 11.4, the cross has actually rallied through April. Read more
US PCE data still too hot, but not as bad as some feared
March PCE printed broadly in line with expectations, despite building speculation of an upside beat following yesterday's GDP release. Read more
Headline US GDP provides a head fake, focus on the details
The advance reading of US Q1 GDP today showed the economy slowing more than expected as headline GDP landed at 1.6% QoQ annualised. Read more
NBH policy enters a new phase with 50bps of easing
Today’s policy decision sees the National Bank of Hungary slow the pace of policy easing, delivering 50bps of rate cuts in line with expectations. Read more
April PMIs should put a dent in BoE dovishness
Whilst April's flash PMI report read awfully like a soft landing scenario was evolving in the UK, we think risks of inflation persistence remain prominent. Read more
Eurozone PMIs pose a conundrum for the ECB
For the first time in 10-months, both the French and German composite PMIs no longer signal economic contractions. Read more
The yuan’s fortunes look less constructive
With the US and Chinese economic prospects starting to diverge, we now think USDCNY will struggle to durably break below 7.00 over the coming years. Read more
Sticky inflation to keep rates unchanged in June
While headline inflation continued its downward trend in March, a smaller than expected fall reconfirms the message from yesterday’s pay data. Read more
BoC on track to cut in June and quickly thereafter
The Bank of Canada remains on track to cut rates in June despite the latest data showing inflation ticked up from 2.8% in February to 2.9% YoY in March. Read more
February wage growth should sound a note of caution for the BoE
This morning’s UK labour market data is unlikely to help give the Bank of England sufficient confidence to cut rates in June. Read more
MAS unchanged stance to put a ceiling on USDSGD
The Monetary Authority of Singapore decided to keep the slope of the S$NEER policy band unchanged. Read more
The ECB not recommitting, but sets up a cut in June
The ECB has kept rates unchanged once again, maintaining the deposit rate at 4.00% in line with widespread consensus and our own pre-announcement call. Read more
Bank of Canada on track for June cut
The Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged at 5% today, which came as no surprise to markets. Read more
Bump in US disinflation path looks more like a mountain than a molehill
Both headline and core measures of US CPI landed 0.1pp above expectations on a monthly basis in March, printing at 0.4% MoM respectively on a rounded basis. Read more
Banxico to remain cautious even as inflation misses expectations
Headline and core inflation in Mexico came in slightly below consensus expectations for a notable pick-up in inflation in March. Read more
Strong payrolls print, but June still the base case
The March US nonfarm payrolls print beat all expectations, showing the economy added 303k jobs. Read more
Canada’s labour market supports continuous easing from the BoC
The Canadian economy failed to add jobs in March, with employment essentially flatlining on the month. Read more
No change at the NBP
The National Bank of Poland maintained the policy rate at 5.75% for the sixth successive meeting, a move widely expected by markets. Read more
Swiss inflation cools in March, validating the SNB’s decision to cut
Inflation seemingly disappeared in Switzerland in March, just as underlying measures suggested the pace of price growth was reaccelerating. Read more
Softer ISM Services should be treated with caution
The ISM services PMI dropped to 51.4 in March, down 1.2 percentage points from 52.6 the month prior and disappointing market consensus. Read more
Monex’s April 2024 FX Forecasts
Our market analysts believe expectations of monetary easing across the G10 are likely to diverge further in April. Here's Monex's latest FX forecasts for April. Read more
Canada’s economy rises from its slump, but it’s not all good news
The Canadian economy grew 0.6% MoM in January, beating expectations and Statistics Canada’s flash estimate by 0.2 percentage points. Read more
The Riksbank opens the door to rate cuts
The Riksbank left rates unchanged at 4.00% in their latest policy decision, but validated market expectations that the first rate cut could come in May. Read more
The NBH slows the pace as domestic tensions weigh
The National Bank of Hungary cut rates by 75bps at today’s meeting, taking the base rate to 8.25%, in line with the market consensus and our forecast. Read more
Banxico cuts for the first time… but keeps the cautious stance
At its March meeting, Banxico's Board of Governors decided to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 11.00% for the first time this cycle. Read more
Bank of England lays the foundations to cut
The Bank of England has left Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25% once again, in line with consensus expectations and our forecast. Read more
BCB cuts 50 basis points, maintains its forecasts but turns more hawkish
At its March meeting, the BCB's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) unanimously decided to cut the Selic rate by 50bps for the sixth consecutive time. Read more
March PMIs point towards a two speed Europe
March flash PMIs continue to highlight the contrasting fortunes of European economies. Read more
The SNB commences the G10 easing cycle
The Swiss National Bank today cut its policy rate by 25bps to 1.5%, making it the first G10 central bank to cut rates this cycle. Read more
Fed reiterates confidence to cut this year, but risk of a higher terminal rate grows
FOMC members continue to predict 3 rate cuts this year, but have revised up the 2025/2026 median by 25bps and lifted the longer-term projection moderately. Read more
UK inflation cools but not by enough to shift the BoE
Headline UK inflation dropped marginally more than expected in February, with prices rising by 3.4% on a YoY basis. Read more
BoC should cut in April, whether they will is another question
Across nearly all measures, inflation pressures in Canada cooled considerably in February, with headline inflation undershooting consensus expectations. Read more
SNB preview: Narrowly avoiding being the first to cut
Having effectively brought inflation back to within its target range, the SNB scans as the most likely candidate to kickstart the DM easing cycle. Read more
Bank of Japan “dovishly” exits negative rates and YCC
The Bank of Japan hiked interest rates for the first time in 17 years today, effectively exiting negative interest rates that had been in place since 2016. Read more
Norges Bank Preview: NOK rocking the ship
Whilst we see no risk of the Norges Bank adjusting rates this week, the extent to which the central bank updates its guidance will be important to markets. Read more
Asian FX volatility to sprout in Spring
Implied and realised volatility should rise close to recent averages across a multitude of Asian currency pairs ahead of the Fed’s June meeting. Read more
UK economy rebounds in January
January’s monthly GDP print showed the UK economy expanded by 0.2%, fuelling hopes that a technical recession for the UK will remain a 2023 story. Read more
Hotter February inflation should turn BCB hawkish
Brazil's headline inflation was again slightly above economists' forecasts in February. Read more
US inflation keeps Fed easing bets before June at bay
US Headline inflation only just met expectations of a 0.4% MoM increase in February, with the unrounded figure printing at 0.442%. Read more
Marginal labour market cooling keeps the BoE on track for an August cut
January’s UK labour market data, released this morning, keeps the Bank of England on track for an August start to policy easing. Read more
Powell’s confidence is not misplaced
Today’s jobs report is the kind that should see confidence building at the Fed, as the headline NFP number indicated 275k jobs added in February. Read more
Strong job growth doesn’t justify the BoC delaying until June
For the second month this year, the Canadian economy added an above-trend level of jobs, with net employment increased by 40.7k in February. Read more
Lagarde all but shuts the door on an April cut
The ECB kept all policy rates unchanged once again in today’s decision, meeting both consensus expectations and our own pre-announcement call. Read more
BoC says it’s “too early” to ease
The Bank of Canada left its policy rate at 5% for a fifth straight meeting today, in line with the broad consensus. Read more
NBP holds rates, resumption of easing to be delayed
The National Bank of Poland today held rates at 5.75%, as widely expected with focus on the updated inflation forecasts and the future path of policy rates. Read more
The Chancellor delivers few pre-election boosts
The Spring Budget contained no meaningful pre-election surprises, leaving the path clear for the BoE to cut rates this year, most likely in August. Read more
Monex’s March 2024 FX Forecasts
With more central bank meetings set for this month, we think policymakers will have to recognise the growing divergence in economic fundamentals. Read more
Canada’s economy can’t fulfil its potential despite beating expectations
The Canadian economy essentially flatlined in December following a 0.23% MoM increase in November, as measured on an industry basis. Read more
The NBH picks up the pace
The National Bank of Hungary cut rates by 100bp in their latest policy decision, taking the main policy rate to 9.00%, in line with market consensus. Read more
Divergent fortunes between the UK and eurozone are on show once again
Green shoots of recovery should not distract from the reality that eurozone activity remains in contraction, highlighted today by eurozone PMI figures. Read more
April is now live again for a BoC cut
Thankfully for the BoC, January’s inflation data presented a clearer picture of disinflation, with all indices essentially reflecting weaker growth rates. Read more
PBoC provides more support to the housing market
The People’s Bank of China surprised market expectations, cutting the 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) instead of the 1-year LPR. Read more
UK retail sales reverse the Christmas slump
January’s retail sales data should put to bed any doubts around the UK’s economic prospects heading into 2024. Read more
UK Q4 GDP figures confirm a 2023 technical recession
UK GDP data released this morning confirmed that the UK just barely fell into a technical recession at the end of 2023. Read more
UK inflation surprisingly fails to accelerate
January’s UK inflation numbers notably undershot expectations in this morning's release, countering yesterday’s hotter labour market figures. Read more
US CPI provides the Fed with another reason to hold
If the prospect of an interest rate cut from the Fed in March wasn’t yet dead, January’s inflation data has just provided the final bullet. Read more
SNB to weaken the franc ahead of March rate cut
Today's Swiss inflation data confirms our view that the SNB will loosen monetary policy, primarily through the exchange rate before cutting its policy rate. Read more
UK labour market continues to outperform expectations
Today's UK labour market data delivered yet another head scratching outturn, reinforcing our call for no policy rate easing in the first half of this year. Read more
Even Canada’s jobs data isn’t safe
Canada’s macroeconomic data has been incredibly noisy in recent months, making it nigh on impossible to accurately predict the state of the economy. Read more
January inflation and a more cautious Banxico point to the March meeting… as the soonest
Headline and core inflation in January continued to show the pace of disinflation in Mexico slowing at the beginning of the year. Read more
CNB rate cuts accelerate
The Czech National Bank (CNB) cut rates by 50bps this afternoon, taking the repurchase rate to 6.25%, delivering more policy easing than we expected. Read more
Further evidence that the BCB will have to be less optimistic
Headline inflation in Brazil came in slightly higher than economists expected at the beginning of the year. Read more
National Bank of Poland on hold, again
The National Bank of Poland held rates at 5.75% today, in line with our pre-announcement call and consensus expectations. Read more
Monster US jobs print deals a blow to Fed easing bets
The US economy added a monstrous 353k jobs in January, beating consensus expectations of just 185k by a considerable margin. Read more
Monex’s February 2024 FX Forecasts
With markets having now unwound December’s moves, our FX analysts believe the scope for further US dollar appreciation looks more limited for February. Read more
Bank of England bides time before rate cuts
The Bank of England held rates at their first policy meeting of the year, a move widely expected by markets and in line with our pre-announcement call. Read more
BCB stays the course despite new faces
Yesterday, the BCB finally decided unanimously to cut the Selic rate by 50 basis points for the fifth consecutive time, to 11.25%. Read more
Eurozone disinflation hits a bump in the road
January’s preliminary eurozone inflation overshot expectations by 0.1pp, with headline CPI figures showing price growth of 2.8% on an annual basis. Read more
Fed takes next cautious step in the path to cuts
The Federal Reserve today held rates in the target range of 5.25-5.5% for the fourth consecutive meeting in a decision that was unanimously expected. Read more
Canadian economy looks set to rise from the ashes in Q4, albeit briefly
Preliminary GDP data for Q4 shows the Canadian economy tracking at an annualised rate of 1.2% QoQ. Read more
National Bank of Hungary had its hands tied
The NBH has cut the base rate by 75bps to 10%, undershooting the widespread consensus that looked for a larger 100bp cut. Read more
Lagarde cracks open the door to earlier rate cuts
In a move that surprised almost no-one, the ECB has held rates once again today, maintaining the deposit rate at 4.00% in line with market consensus. Read more
The CBRT delivers one final hike
The CBRT has hiked the one-week repo rate by 250bp to 45.00%, in line with our call and market consensus. Read more
Norges Bank declares an end to policy tightening
The Norges Bank has maintained the deposit rate at 4.50% as widely expected, in line with our pre-announcement call. Read more
The BoC pivot begins
The Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 5.00% in the first policy decision of the new year, in line with market consensus. Read more
European PMIs remain pointed in opposite directions
A marginal uptick in eurozone PMIs does little to dispel the notion that the bloc is well and truly stuck in contraction. Read more
Sticky inflation set to keep the BoE on hold in early 2024
UK inflation reaccelerated in December, with headline price growth rising to 4.0% YoY, up from 3.9% the month prior, surprising the consensus. Read more
A rise in core inflation pressures likely means a hawkish BoC next week
Canadian inflation accelerated in December, rising to 3.4% YoY in line with expectations, but still a 0.3pp increase on November’s 3.1% reading. Read more
The labour market continue to cool, but not fast enough to suggest imminent cuts from the BoE
UK wage data showed that pay pressures continue to cool, though not fast enough to see the Bank of England cutting rates until the second half of 2024. Read more
UK economy bounces back from October’s slumber
The UK economy grew by 0.3% in November, beating the 0.2% expansion anticipated by markets to completely reverse October’s decline. Read more
US CPI adds pressure to the market’s Fed view
Both US headline and core inflation printed at 0.3% MoM in December, with the former landing 0.1pp above expectations and the latter in line with consensus. Read more
Macro Outlook 2024: Not so fast – dollar to decline but rout unlikely
This year is set to see policy easing play out across most major economies, though our FX analysts foresee a bumpier ride than many are predicting for 2024. Read more
The NBP holds fire once again, as expected
The National Bank of Poland kicked off the year by maintaining rates at 5.75%, in line with unanimous sell-side consensus and our own pre-release call. Read more
Fed to remain cautious on conflicting labour market signals
December’s nonfarm payrolls delivered a beat to expectations, coming in hotter-than-expected and posing a significant challenge to markets. Read more
The curious case of Canada’s jobs market
The Canadian economy failed to add any jobs in December, with employment levels in full-time positions actually falling by 23.5k on the month. Read more
Fed meeting minutes show no signs of rate cut discussion, as intimated by Powell
Since Powell’s press conference, members of the FOMC have been actively trying to push back on the market's dovish view. Read more
European PMIs point to divergent economic fortunes heading into the new year
November’s PMI figures proved to be a false dawn for the eurozone, pointing to a less than merry Christmas for some European economies. Read more
ECB clings onto hawkish narrative, but moves on PEPP
The ECB unanimously held the deposit rate at 4%, despite simultaneously downgrading its 2024 growth, inflation, and core inflation forecasts. Read more
The Old Lady’s not for turning
As expected, and unlike the Fed last night, the BoE resisted the urge to pivot to a more dovish monetary policy stance. Read more
Krone weakness pushes the Norges Bank to deliver a final hike
The Norges Bank hiked the deposit rate by 25bps to 4.5% at its December meeting, defying the market consensus and our own call for the Bank to hold. Read more
SNB turns neutral on the franc
The Swiss National Bank held rates on Sight Deposits at 1.75% for the second consecutive meeting, in line with broad market consensus. Read more
Rate cuts draw closer for the Fed as the economy seen cooling
The Federal Reserve today tweaked its policy statement and Summary of Economic Projections in a progressively dovish direction. Read more
UK growth cools, but is set to recover
UK growth figures surprised to the downside, showing the economy shrank by 0.3% in October, below consensus estimates that looked for a 0.1% contraction. Read more
The pace of US disinflation starts to slow
Disinflationary progress in the US effectively stalled in November, giving the Fed further evidence to turn to tomorrow to relay a more cautious message. Read more
UK wage growth cools, but not enough to shift the BoE
UK labour market data delivered a downside surprise, confirming no further rate hikes are on the horizon from the Bank of England. Read more
November payrolls give Fed reason to be cautious
The US economy added 199k jobs in November, up from 150k in October and marginally above consensus expectations of 183k. Read more
Wait-and-see at the NBP
The National Bank of Poland has left policy on hold at 5.75% as expected in December, in line with our call and market consensus. Read more
BoC holds rates at 5%, delaying discussions of easing until 2024
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 5% today for the third successive meeting since it resumed its hiking cycle back earlier this year. Read more
Canadian labour market loosens despite strong job growth
November’s jobs report marks another mixed data release out of Canada. Headline employment growth once again proved strong. Read more
Monex’s December 2023 FX Forecasts
Whilst our FX analysts maintain a bearish view on the US dollar from mid-2024 onwards, they continue to envisage a stronger dollar heading into 24Q2. Read more
Choppy GDP data risks masking underlying weakness in Canadian economy
The first estimate of Q3 GDP showed the Canadian economy contracting -0.3% QoQ, or -1.1% in annualised terms. Read more
ECB’s 2% inflation target is in sight
The flash estimate of euro area inflation for November confirmed the disinflationary signals from the national data released over the past day. Read more
UK economy accelerates in November
November’s flash PMIs once again support Monex's view that the UK economy is merely in a state of stagnation as opposed to outright contraction. Read more
Riksbank gambles on external conditions keeping the krona supported
The Riksbank hit a pause on policy tightening this morning, leaving the main policy rate at 4.00% in a move that defied consensus expectations. Read more
Weak growth in Europe is starting to impact the labour market
The general theme across November’s flash eurozone PMIs is that the continued slowdown in economic growth is starting to manifest within the labour market. Read more
The Chancellor manages to deliver a modest surprise in the Autumn Statement
Despite largely confirming pre-announcement expectations, today’s Autumn Statement was somewhat more generous than many had initially anticipated. Read more
Inflation cools considerably in Canada at the start of Q4
Canadian headline CPI fell 0.7 percentage points to 3.1% YoY at the start of the fourth quarter, in line with economist expectations. This largely reflected lower gasoline prices (-7.8% YoY). Read more
UK inflation falls sharply as expected, adding to the probability of a soft landing
This morning's October CPI print saw UK inflation decelerate sharply, fractionally undershooting the market consensus. Read more
US core services inflation cools, sparking a relief rally against the dollar
US headline inflation fell from 3.7% to 3.2% YoY in October following a flat month-on-month reading, but the focus for markets remains on the core index. Read more
UK wages continue to slow under the surface, despite a headline beat
Whilst this morning’s UK labour market data release surprised to the upside on headline measures, the details of the report provide plenty of good news. Read more
Inflation in Sweden isn’t as worse as feared, but that shouldn’t stop the Riksbank from hiking
October’s inflation data out of Sweden undershot analyst expectations but continued to outpace the central bank’s September projections. Read more
Banxico dial down the hawkish guidance, consistent with early 2024 rate cuts
Banxico kept rates on hold at 11.25% at its November meeting in line with consensus and our forecast. Read more
UK growth exceeds expectations to flatline in Q3
UK GDP figures out this morning revealed a surprise 0.2% economic expansion in September, enough to keep the economy from contracting in the third quarter. Read more
Sticky services inflation to keep Banxico on hold
Headline inflation in Mexico continued to fall in October, in both annual and sequential terms. That is, risks to their inflation forecasts remain tilted to the upside. Read more
NBP leaves rates unchanged in a first post election policy decision
The National Bank of Poland has maintained the base rate at 5.75%, a surprise for markets that had projected a further 25bp cut to policy rates. Read more
Weakness in North American jobs data fuels rate cut speculation
At 150k, however, today’s US net employment figure considerably undershot expectations. Canada’s October jobs report came in similarly soft. Read more
Bank of England holds firm at 5.25% despite brewing growth concerns
The Bank of England has held the Bank Rate at 5.25% for the second consecutive meeting, in line with market consensus and our own pre-announcement call. Read more
No surprises from the Norges Bank, buts hints of a dovish pivot in December
The Norges Bank today kept policy rates on hold at 4.25%, as widely expected by markets and in line with our pre-release call. Read more
Powell keeps December rate hike alive
The FOMC unanimously voted to keep the policy rate on hold today at 5.25-5.5%, in what became a widely expected decision. Read more
Monex’s November 2023 FX Forecasts
November looks like it could bring much of the same as October, with the dollar's path higher set to remain stymied at least in part by rate dynamics. Read more
Another quarter devoid of growth leaves the BoC in limbo until 24Q1
The Canadian economy continued to flatline in August, as an increase in the services sector (+0.1% MoM) was netted off by a contraction in goods (-0.2%). Read more
US PMIs show the exceptionalism narrative still has legs
Flash PMI data for the US improved across the board, with S&P Global’s measures of manufacturing, services, and the composite all beating expectations. Read more
NBH cuts rates by 75bps, hints to faster than expected policy easing
The National Bank of Hungary announced a 75bp cut to the central bank base rate today, taking it to 12.25%. Read more
UK economy seen flatlining in the fourth quarter
The UK's latest flash PMIs show an economy flatlining, but not to an extent that recession appears more likely than not. Read more
October’s PMIs increase the likelihood of a eurozone recession in Q4
The eurozone’s flash PMIs made for grim reading yet again, raising the risk of an earlier and more aggressive easing cycle in 2024 than markets are pricing. Read more
Soft August retail sales confirm consumer demand slowdown in Canada
Canadian retail sales for August met expectations at -0.1% MoM, softening from a 0.3% print the month prior. Read more
Grim retail sales data takes further BoE rate hiking off the table
Retail sales data out this morning showed an alarming slide in consumer spending, putting the prospect of a UK recession back on the table for policymakers. Read more
Turning bearish on CAD as recession odds mount
After remaining relatively range-bound for most of 2023, growing geopolitical risks have led the Canadian dollar to depreciate towards year-to-date lows. Read more
UK inflation data posts a modest beat, but changes little for the BoE
UK inflation data out this morning delivered a modest beat, though it remains tracking below the BoE’s August forecasts. Read more
Cooler inflation in Canada crushes the chance of a hike next week
Headline inflation in Canada fell by two tenths of a percent to 3.8% YoY, as the monthly impulse turned negative at -0.1% MoM. Read more
The peak is now in for UK wage growth
Wage growth fell in August across all key measures in new data out this morning, providing welcome though widely expected relief on Threadneedle Street. Read more
BoC’s Q3 surveys paint stagflationary outlook
The outlook for the Canadian economy is bleak, as per the Bank of Canada’s latest Q3 surveys. We now look towards September’s inflation report tomorrow. Read more
Still bullish on MXN despite a more challenging environment
Our analysts expect the macroeconomic backdrop to remain challenging and consequently keep USDMXN volatile in Q4. Read more
Norges Bank is done hiking with inflation cooling quicker than expected
The release of September’s CPI report this morning saw price growth in Norway massively undershoot expectations. Read more
Thirteen is unlucky for some, but maybe not the dollar
Next week, in terms of economic events, the calendar provides plenty to excite markets. Read more
Massive job gains keep an October BoC hike on the table, but the job market isn’t as strong as it seems
Following an August report where a 40k gain doubled expectations, September saw Canada’s job gains more than triple the 20k consensus. Read more
Monstrous payrolls report keeps Q4 hike alive
Before today’s US payrolls release, markets were assigning less than a 40% probability of a Q4 rate hike, however that is no longer the case. Read more
The NBP returns to policy orthodoxy with a quarter point cut
The National Bank of Poland has followed up last month's surprise 75 basis point cut with a further 25bps today, bringing the policy rate to 5.75% Read more
Monex’s October 2023 FX Forecasts
This month, growth concerns predominate across advanced economies, whilst policy easing is increasingly a focus for emerging market central banks. Read more
Markets forced to trade in turbulent waters
In the coming week, increased levels of intraday volatility are likely to persist, with US political woes over the weekend, concerns over China and Friday's NFP report. Read more
Canada’s economy continued to stagnate into Q3
Canada’s economy didn’t grow or shrink in July, with month-on-month growth coming in a tenth below consensus estimates. Read more
The race to the bottom begins for CE3 central banks
For CE3 economies, the focus of monetary policy is now definitively on the prospect of rate cuts. Read more
Monex’s September 2023 FX Forecasts
Our Monex analysts continue to favour the greenback against yield (JPY) and growth sensitive (EUR and CNY) currencies over the next month. Read more
Monex’s August 2023 FX Forecasts
With the risk of the Fed hiking once more in Q4 still credible, we expect the shallow and bumpy downtrend in the dollar to continue throughout Q3. Read more
Expect more GBP downside on underwhelming BoE
Our analysts expect the Bank of England will hike 25bp in August following weak inflation data leading to further depreciation in the pound. Read more
Monex’s July 2023 FX Forecasts
Although the global tightening cycle is approaching its final phase, monetary policy remains one of the primary drivers of FX market price action. Read more
Monex’s June 2023 FX Forecasts
Market price action over the past month was dominated by the twin themes of political dysfunction and economic convergence. Read more
Monex’s May 2023 FX Forecasts
With central banks in the US and elsewhere hitting the end of their hiking cycles, we see near-term policy expectations losing some impact on FX volatility. Read more
Monex’s April 2023 FX Forecasts
Whilst our FX Analysts' March forecasts have broadly panned out, it was the driving force behind these moves that came as a surprise to them. Read more
Monex’s March 2023 FX Forecasts
Our FX analysts expect a reversal in some of February's price action on the back of reduced upside risk to US rates and potentially reduced volatility within the space. Here's a look at the latest Monex FX Forecasts for March 2023. Read more
Monex’s February 2023 FX Forecasts
The market's repositioning has been quite aggressive to date, leading us to believe that the dollar is overdue a period of consolidation in the near-term. Read more
Macro Outlook 2023: The macro climate remains challenging for investors
Following a volatile year defined by rising inflation pressures, the macro environment is unlikely to ease up for investors in 2023. Read more
Monex’s December 2022 FX Forecasts
Our house view has now shifted tactically neutral on the US dollar in the near term and await a shift in structural factors to trigger a secular decline in the dollar. Read more
Monex’s November 2022 FX Forecasts
For now, our outlook on the dollar remains constructive until jobs and inflation data allow the Fed to downshift. Read more
Monex’s October 2022 FX Forecasts
Although a high level of bond market volatility is filtering through to FX markets our analysts believe the dollar has a structural basis to grind higher in Q4. Read more
Week Ahead: Fire sale in markets may not ease despite thinner data calendar
In the week ahead, the economic calendar dies down slightly, although the start to the week might not be frictionless as traders return with the results of Italy’s latest election. Read more
SGD Outlook: Singapore dollar to rally against currency basket on MAS tightening
In spite of the fundamentals, the risks to our USDSGD outlook skew to the downside as APAC central banks may intervene in FX markets to prevent excessive depreciation in their respective currencies. Read more
Monex’s September 2022 FX Forecasts
Our forecasts are more bullish on the dollar as we no longer expect the Fed’s downshift to 50bps in September to be as supportive for risk conditions. Read more
Monex’s August 2022 FX Forecasts
DXY index is likely to stay supported, owing to our expectation that the euro-area’s growth outlook will force another run on parity this month. Read more
Monex’s July 2022 FX Forecasts
Read Monex's July 2022 FX Forecasts. Find our what our top forecasters expect for currency markets, amid ongoing recession concerns and higher inflation. Read more
Monex’s June 2022 FX Forecasts
Read Monex's June 2022 FX Forecasts. Find our what our top forecasters expect for currency markets, amid ongoing global growth and inflation concerns. Read more
Monex’s May 2022 FX Forecasts
Read Monex's May 2022 FX Forecasts. Find our what our top forecasters expect for currency markets, amid current geopolitical events and uncertain conditions. Read more
CAD Outlook: Loonie strength to continue in Q2 on higher oil and BoC support
The Canadian dollar has been highly sensitive to monetary policy actions and price action in global commodities over the course of Q1. Under our base case for commodities and the Bank of Canada in Q2, which envisages two 50bp hikes, we believe gains in the Canadian dollar are likely to continue. However, our flatter forecast for the BoC policy rate in H2 will likely weigh on the loonie at the margin as the pace of Fed tightening overtakes that of the Bank of Canada. Read more
Monex’s April 2022 FX Forecasts
While the limited progress in peace talks towards the end of the month blurred the overall dollar dynamics due to a positive boost to regional risk sentiment, we still expect some of the dominant drivers of FX markets from March to remain in play in April. Read more
EUR Update: European currencies battered by latest Russia-Ukraine headlines – is there a floor?
Since the publication of our latest FX forecasts at the beginning of the month, significant developments in the Russia-Ukraine war have put increased pressure on European currencies and equities. Over the last month, the respective currencies of these nations have therefore performed even worse than the euro. The question now is; where will price action stabilise? Read more
CHF Update: Consolidation below parity in EURCHF is unlikely
While the Swiss franc is considered a global safe haven, we have long argued that its haven attributes are more acute during periods of regional risk. This has been visible over the past weeks, as rising political and economic risks have significantly impacted the European growth outlook. Read more
Monex’s March 2022 FX Forecasts
Geopolitical events are likely to continue driving FX markets in the near-term and with no clear end game as things stand, our forecasts remain under review. Our base case scenario at present is that the pace of geopolitical developments slow in March, but recent events result in a material deterioration in Europe’s macroeconomic backdrop and a still tentative risk environment. Read more
EUR Update: Fluid backdrop to keep volatility elevated
The ongoing political risk in Europe means EURUSD is going to remain an easy target within the G10, while rising US Treasury yields the euro’s sensitivity to them will also be a risk. Looking over to H2, an improvement in global growth conditions will be more deterministic for the euro when the monetary outlook and political backdrop has become more stable. Read more
Monex’s February 2022 FX Forecasts
Looking ahead, our FX analysts expect the dollar’s strength to be more nuanced in February and for it to be isolated against currencies where rates are likely to lag the rise in US rates. In our forecasts, this largely pertains to EUR, JPY and CNY. Read more
BRL Outlook: Hawkish BCB to offset depreciation, but political risks may tip the balance
As the year progresses, the Brazilian general elections that are set to be held in October will become increasingly relevant for FX markets given the real’s reputation of weakening in times of political uncertainty and upcoming elections. Read more
USD Outlook: Factoring in the stall in hawkish Fed pricing
Since the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, the DXY index has fallen by 1.5% despite data released over the same timeframe for December showing the unemployment rate falling below 4% and inflation data rising to a near 40-year high. Read more
Monex’s 12 key market themes for 2022
Trade ideas tend to have a short shelflife in today's market, so instead of issuing trade suggestions for 2022, we have opted to outline the main themes we think will dominate market price action in the coming 12 months. Read more
Monex January 2022 FX Forecasts
Looking ahead to 2022, our forecasts have been adjusted to take into account the new sensitivities of central banks to inflation, continuing virus risks and the likely slowdown in growth in Q1. Omicron risk continues to dominate as policymakers conduct a balancing act in order to mitigate the health and economic impacts. Read more
Monex December 2021 FX Forecasts
The Omicron variant has certainly thrown another spanner in the works for our currency forecasts. With little information known about the efficacy rate of vaccines against the Omicron variant and therefore the impact it will have on global growth, we project our near-term forecasts based on the scenario of no substantial deterioration in Covid conditions towards year-end. Read more
Projected rate paths are key for NZD and SEK
Next week (22nd - 26th November), focus remains on how markets price central bank tolerances to inflation and global growth conditions as Covid cases begin to rise and force major nations to impose tighter containment measures. Read more
US CPI keeps markets volatile following the central bank bonanza
Next week (15th - 19th November), CPI remains top of mind as a number of nations are set to release reports highlighting above target price growth, however, we believe these releases will have less of an impact on broader markets relative to the US release this week. Additionally, central banks from South Africa and Turkey are expected to deliver fresh rate decisions. Read more
RUB: Positive outlook riddled with risk
While most arrows point in favour of a RUB rally, a major downside risk to the currency outlook has emerged as the Covid case count, along with related deaths and hospitalisations, stand at record-highs and first steps have been taken to slow the surge. Read more
ECB and Fed speakers in scope after dovish retaliation
Next week (8th - 12th November), despite the absence of any major central bank meetings, the focus will remain on monetary policy pricing, especially as the Fed’s media blackout period ends. Notable speeches from Chicago Fed Evans and San Francisco’s Daly will be in scope for US rate traders, while opening remarks from the ECB’s Chief Economist Lane will be top of mind for euro money markets. Read more
NOK and SEK to rise further before rally tops out
Looking ahead, we expect both NOK and SEK to remain strong until year-end, but next year could see more limited gains as the procyclical rally is expected to be less pronounced than previously thought given downgrades to global growth. Read more
The central bank magic trick: turning a dove into a hawk in plain sight
Price action in G10 FX markets this week has been driven predominantly by pricing in bond markets and the actions of central banks. This dynamic is set to continue next week (1st - 5th November) as the battle against rising inflation migrates from the Bank of Canada and the ECB to the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England. Read more
Central banks to take centre stage ahead of crucial GDP readings
A flurry of central bank meetings take will place across the globe next week (25th - 29th October), while Q3 GDP prints from the US and eurozone will take centre stage on Friday. Several countries will also release inflation readings. Among the central bank meetings are the Bank of Canada, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank - in order of importance. Read more
EUR Update: Euro weighed down by near-term factors, medium-term outlook rosier
While September’s losses were significant at over 2%, we expect the pressure on the euro to ease over the coming months as supply pressures mitigate, which should help to cool inflation and aid growth conditions. We expect the combination of these developments to be supportive for EURUSD. Read more
Economic activity and inflation data put stagflation fears to the test
Next week (18th - 22nd October), the data calendar revolves around October’s preliminary PMI prints, while China’s Q3 GDP data also scans as one of the more interesting releases. The focus on activity data is likely to be heightened given growth concerns over previous weeks and the impact higher input costs are having. This is especially the case in the eurozone, UK, and China, where rising energy costs are the most pronounced. Read more
USD Update: Defiant dollar in Q4
Our latest forecasts now see the DXY index trading a percentage point lower than current spot levels and back towards highs of its previous trading range as the aggressive repricing in FX markets overextended in early October given our views on back-end US rates this year. Read more
Macro backdrop of slower growth and rising inflation set to dominate FX markets
Next week (11th - 15th October), with a limited data calendar, markets are likely to continue focusing on the inflation backdrop and the impact it will have on growth conditions. We take a brief look at the environment in Europe this week and what it means for ECB and BoE pricing. Read more
Grappling with the stagflationary backdrop
Next week (4th - 8th October), the central banks’ assessments of the stagflationary environment will be in focus for markets, especially as traders adjust positions following this week’s aggressive price adjustments. Read more
KRW Update: Further won weakness to be limited
A combination of slowing semiconductor exports, higher yields in the DM space, and a resurgence of Covid-19, have all contributed to the unwind in aggressive USDKRW short positioning this year. Read more
From policy announcements to central bank speakers
Next week (27th September - 1st October), the focus quickly shifts from policy announcements to individual central bankers as a swathe of speakers fill the economic calendar, largely due to the ECB’s forum on central banking taking place between the 28th and 29th of September. Rather than being in Sintra (Portugal) as has been customary, the event will take place online. Read more
Monetary policy in scope with FOMC minutes and ECB strategy review
This week (5th - 9th July), the meeting minutes from the Fed’s June meeting will be scoured by market participants as they try to gain a clearer view on future US interest rates, and the ECB’s Governing Council is set to also meet next week in Frankfurt to discuss the ongoing policy review. Read more
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