Monex December 2021 FX Forecasts

November was all about USD strength as multiple factors supported the greenback. Over the initial parts of the month, market implied interest rates turned more aggressive after the release of the October US CPI report, which showed price pressures were drastically more broad-based than before. Towards the end of the month, volatility in markets intensified even further after the discovery of the Omicron variant, which took a major toll on risk sentiment globally and further fueled USD gains.  Looking ahead, beyond the new variant threat our forecasts have been adjusted for the likely faster tapering by the Federal Reserve from December’s meeting onwards such that net purchases stop by March 2022, our view that the Fed will hike twice in 2022 but rate adjustments will only occur in H2, a recovery in commodity markets as global growth risks subside, and the fact that inflation is forcing some of the more dovish central banks to signal a policy reaction in their forecast horizons.

You can read our December 2021 FX Forecasts report here:

DOWNLOAD THE FULL REPORT

Authors:

Simon Harvey, Senior FX Market Analyst

Ima Sammani, FX Market Analyst

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared by Monex Europe Limited, an execution-only service provider. The material is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is, or should be considered to be, financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by Monex Europe Limited or the author that any particular transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.