Monex’s May 2024 FX Forecasts

There have been three dominant themes for markets to trade year-to-date: US economic outperformance, monetary policy divergence, and geopolitical instability. Over the course of Q1, these all culminated in sustained dollar strength, and April was no different, leading the dollar DXY index to chart fresh five-month highs. However, similar to late-2023, the dollar’s valuations are starting to become an issue, not only for central bank policymakers outside of the US but also for dollar bulls, us included. While we think the dollar still has room to run on all of the aforementioned factors, we believe the pace of USD appreciation is likely to slow over the course of Q2 as investors and central banks remain wary of the byproducts of a stronger dollar.

You can read our May 2024 FX Forecasts report here:

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Authors:

Simon Harvey, Head of FX Analysis

Nick Rees, FX Market Analyst

María Marcos, FX Market Analyst

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared by Monex Europe Holdings Limited, part of Monex S.A.P.I. de C.V. (“Monex”). The material is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is, or should be considered to be, financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All entities in the “Monex” group of companies are regulated for different products and services within the jurisdictions in which they operate. Details of the different entities can be found here. Details of the respective entities’ regulated status and available products and services can then be found on the relevant links to the individual jurisdictions’ website.