Increased cross-asset volatility was the main feature of markets in April, leading to abnormal bond market volatility. Read our latest press release here.
Swiftly adjusting our forecasts towards the end of February to account for the terms-of-trade and inflation shock that was brought about by the Russia-Ukraine war in March, along with the rise in eurozone risk premia, resulted in a strong performance for our Q1 and March forecasts across both Bloomberg and Reuters rankings.
Many of our near-term G10 forecasts performed well in February, with notable performances in EURCHF, EURSEK, AUDUSD, and USDCAD. The 6- to 12-month forecasts ranked well for USDCHF and EURSEK, despite the heightened volatility over the last year.
Monex Europe, one of Europe’s leading corporate FX and hedging providers, has received the 2021 Refinitiv StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls in the Major Currencies category.
Arrival of Omicron and hawkish shift in monetary policies increases forecast error in December’s Reuters
Uncertainty induced by the arrival of the Omicron variant in late November and the hawkish shift by central banks in December resulted in a larger forecast error for our 6-to-12-month forecasts.
MonFX set to boost Asia offering with Capital Markets Services licence from the Monetary Authority of Singapore
MonFX Pte Ltd announced today that it has successfully obtained a Capital Markets Services (“CMS”) licence from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”), strengthening its footing as an Asian foreign exchange (“FX”) specialist.
Money markets continued to push back strongly against G10 central bank communications throughout October and priced in aggressive tightening cycles across the space, resulting in bear flattening in most sovereign yield curves. This led to broader USD weakness in most major pairs, with the exception of EURUSD and USDJPY, both of which bucked the broad G10 trend due to their positions within the G10 monetary space.
The sharp rise in the broad dollar, especially against major G10 currencies, in the last few days of September meant that Monex’s 1-month GBPUSD and EURUSD forecasts didn’t return a high ranking. However, our more neutral stance on euro-crosses and on AUD and NZD resulted in solid near-term rankings. In the EM space, it was business as usual, with notable rankings in MXN, RUB and TRY.
The decline in the broad dollar towards the end of the month meant that Monex retained strong rankings over the 1-month horizon for select currencies, especially within the EM space where the dollar’s decline was relatively larger following Powell’s speech. Over the medium-to-long run, Monex’s longstanding view of dollar weakness didn’t filter through to all forecasted currencies.
The Monex marathon team is training for the 2021 Virgin Money London Marathon to help raise money for the incredible charity Get Kids Going! To track the team’s incredible journey in the run-up to the big day, we will be releasing a fortnightly interview with each of the runners.