Monex’s June 2025 FX Forecasts

After looking set for a turnaround through the first half of the month, the dollar finished May little changed. Underpinning this performance – President Trump, again. A focus on geopolitics from administration officials coincided notably with an initial uptick for the buck – albeit subsequently undermined by the growing prominence of fiscal risks, and a return to trade and tariffs as a key theme for markets. June looks unlikely to be much different. A suspension of most Trump tariffs on May 28th is an inconvenience, but not a fatal blow to the President’s policy approach. It will also ensure that trade policy remains centre stage for markets, alongside fiscal worries. This is likely to stymy any dollar upside that could otherwise be prompted by a Fed meeting that we see leaning hawkish. Indeed, US political upheaval will likely overshadow rate decisions set to emanate from most major central banks over coming weeks. All told then, we think this backdrop leaves the greenback in limbo for the time being, and are updating our forecasts accordingly, with Trump-induced uncertainty more than offsetting favourable fundamentals, leading us to pull down our short-run dollar forecasts this month.

Read our June 2025 FX Forecasts here:

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Author: 

Nick Rees, Head of Macro Research

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This information has been prepared by Monex Europe Holdings Limited, part of Monex S.A.P.I. de C.V. (“Monex”). The material is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is, or should be considered to be, financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All entities in the “Monex” group of companies are regulated for different products and services within the jurisdictions in which they operate. Details of the different entities can be found here. Details of the respective entities’ regulated status and available products and services can then be found on the relevant links to the individual jurisdictions’ website.