MARKT

Nieuws en analyses

Onze focus is gericht op het helpen van klanten om beter geïnformeerde handelsbeslissingen te nemen door een gebalanceerde, objectieve visie op de valutamarkt te bieden.

Upbeat market mood drives currency markets in the absence of US-China headlines

Upbeat market mood drives currency markets in the absence of US-China headlines

Headlines have taken a break from the US-China tensions this morning, but any developments between the two nations may turn risk sentiment upside down. Lees Meer

National People’s Congress drop GDP target but Hong Kong bill destroys markets risk appetite

National People’s Congress drop GDP target but Hong Kong bill destroys markets risk appetite

With tensions rising again between the US and China after the Senate passed a bill to restrict semiconductor trade with Huawei, the latest measures taken by Beijing could see another collapse in US-Sino relations. Lees Meer

Sterling underperforms in May as idiosyncratic risks mount

Sterling underperforms in May as idiosyncratic risks mount

After a poor performance so far in May, sterling is lagging most of its peers in the G10 group of currencies, with only the New Zealand dollar and Norwegian Krone registering bigger losses against the dollar so far this year.  Lees Meer

Renewed US-China tensions triggered by Senate bill 

Renewed US-China tensions triggered by Senate bill 

Worsening risk appetite was the main theme, as market attention turned to the prospect of renewed tensions between the US and China. Two key developments from the US legislature suggested a trajectory of increased confrontation between the two superpowers. Lees Meer

SARB matches TCMB with a 50bp cut

SARB matches TCMB with a 50bp cut

At mid-day today, the Turkish central bank (TCMB) cut interest rates by 50bps from 8.75%, which fell in line with our expectations and the market's median projection. This afternoon the SARB followed in the TCMB's footsteps, cutting rates by 50bps to a record low of 3.75%, as continuing lockdown measures erode inflation and expand the output gap.  Lees Meer

USD bounces back as US-China tensions continue to rise

USD bounces back as US-China tensions continue to rise

Easing of lockdown measures has been the main driver of improved risk appetite, but this has broken down overnight after the Senate overwhelmingly approved legislation that could lead to Chinese companies such as Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd and Baidu Inc being barred from listing on US stock exchanges. Lees Meer

USD weakness continues as G10 makes inroads

USD weakness continues as G10 makes inroads

Broad US dollar weakness has been the theme of this week’s trading thus far. Today, the kiwi dollar leads gains in the G10 space as the New Zealand government dramatically eases lockdown restrictions. Lees Meer

Dollar weakening as optimism remains in markets 

Dollar weakening as optimism remains in markets 

The dollar spent another session declining yesterday as optimism was plentiful in markets. Little reaction from China over the latest Huawei restrictions has reduced the markets’ concerns over a potential re-emergence of the trade war. Lees Meer

G10 in Green as Powell and Mnuchin head to Capitol Hill

G10 in Green as Powell and Mnuchin head to Capitol Hill

USD is lower against most major currencies today, with JPY the sole loser among the G10. The week’s biggest new so far remains yesterday’s proposal for a mutual Eurozone recovery fund by the German and French Governments. Lees Meer

Fiscal stimulus draws attention in both US and EU

Fiscal stimulus draws attention in both US and EU

With Powell’s earlier comments on the need for heightened fiscal support, it would not come as a surprise if he presses again for further fiscal stimulus in today’s video conference. Lees Meer

Dollar weakens despite another phase of US-China trade war looming

Dollar weakens despite another phase of US-China trade war looming

The dollar continues to trade weaker in today’s session despite news of rising US-Sino tensions after the US imposed restrictions on semiconductor sales to Chinese telecommunications company Huawei. Additionally, comments from White House trade advisor Peter Navarro add to the growing complaints from the Trump administration over China’s containment of the pandemic. Although the potential […] Lees Meer

Negative rate expectations in focus as central banks prominent for the week ahead

Negative rate expectations in focus as central banks prominent for the week ahead

The main focus for markets, and for central bank communique, has been increasing speculation that major central banks such as the Fed and BoE would be forced to cut interest rates into negatives. Lees Meer

Negative rates in focus as US-China tensions rise to the surface

Negative rates in focus as US-China tensions rise to the surface

The dollar is trading mixed against the G10 this morning as markets gauge the building tensions between the US and China. The Trump administration took it a step further and suggested that Beijing sent airline passengers to spread the virus globally. Lees Meer

Negative rates still questioned by markets as US-China tensions back in scope

Negative rates still questioned by markets as US-China tensions back in scope

Times Global Boardroom conference, where newly appointed Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey, highlighted that negative rates couldn’t be ruled out from the UK’s central bank. The ongoing US-China tensions remain fragile after US President Donald Trump threatened to further strain relations. Lees Meer

Negative rates and Trump-China chat put markets on edge

Negative rates and Trump-China chat put markets on edge

The dollar has remained on the offensive today, as central bankers focus on managing increasing speculation in financial markets that major central banks such as the Fed and BoE may be forced into negative rates. Lees Meer

USDSGD unlike to move below 1.40 without broad USD weakness 

USDSGD unlike to move below 1.40 without broad USD weakness 

While the Singapore dollar can trade within an undisclosed band, the tweaks to the exchange rate policy suggests USDSGD may struggle to break the 1.40 level. This is in part due to the premium the SGD has regained over its Asian peers since the March sell-off. Lees Meer

UK GDP data shows early signs of damage while the Fed is back in focus

UK GDP data shows early signs of damage while the Fed is back in focus

UK macro data in Q1 brought a modest unexpected boost to the pound, as the figures showed a relatively more resilient economy than expected amid initial coronavirus shock. Despite the initial positive surprise in the headlines, investors are left with a grim picture. Lees Meer

G10 mixed as markets focus on Powell’s upcoming speech

G10 mixed as markets focus on Powell’s upcoming speech

Today markets will keep a close eye on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s online conference today at 14:00 BST on current economic issues. Any comments on negative rates, as well as on general further stimulus measures, will be closely watched. Lees Meer

FX trades with nervous tone amid fragile risk appetite

FX trades with nervous tone amid fragile risk appetite

G10 FX has traded with a nervous tone so far this week, as yesterday’s broad dollar strength has given way to selling today, with price action following a roughly “risk on” pattern. Lees Meer

Fed officials express apprehension about negative interest rates 

Fed officials express apprehension about negative interest rates 

Senior Federal Reserve policymakers Raphael Bostic and Charles Evans both made comments suggesting they were opposed to or did not anticipate negative interest rates in the US, ahead of a major speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell tomorrow that may touch on the subject. Lees Meer

Dollar gains momentum amid fragile risk sentiment

Dollar gains momentum amid fragile risk sentiment

Risk appetite is still looking fragile today, after the US dollar has rallied from an early-morning sell-off. Among the G10 currencies NOK and CHF are the best performers. Lees Meer

Banxico to cut with prudence

Banxico to cut with prudence

Since the global outbreak of coronavirus in March, the Bank of Mexico has carried out two consecutive interest rates cuts of 50 basis points each in between meetings. Lees Meer

G10 FX opens the week quietly amid ongoing improvement in risk appetite

G10 FX opens the week quietly amid ongoing improvement in risk appetite

The dollar is trading with a mixed tone this morning; risk appetite has slightly improved and pushed riskier currencies like NOK, AUD and CAD in the green against the US dollar, but dollar price action against other currencies in the G10 basket makes for a less straightforward story.  Lees Meer

Nonfarm Payrolls dominate today’s market focus

Nonfarm Payrolls dominate today’s market focus

All eyes are now turned to today’s Non-Farm Payrolls at 13:30 BST. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the US to have lost 22 million jobs in April, the largest expected drop on record. Lees Meer

BoE keeps key rate and asset purchases unchanged

BoE keeps key rate and asset purchases unchanged

Sterling is trading higher this morning, after the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England voted 7-2 to keep asset purchases unchanged, in a decision that also kept the official interest rate unchanged at 0.1%. Lees Meer

BoE decision to avoid more QE is trivial, and forecasts look a touch optimistic

BoE decision to avoid more QE is trivial, and forecasts look a touch optimistic

The Bank of England has followed the OBR in rebranding their forecasts as an “illustrative scenario”, a change of language that reflects the extent to which the forecasts are conditional on changeable assumptions. Lees Meer

Turkish Lira joins the EM “record low” club

Turkish Lira joins the EM “record low” club

Despite the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) best efforts, the lira's breach of the 7.00 level against the dollar last Friday has been extended past its 2018 crisis low in this afternoon's session. Lees Meer

Euro struggles amid poor EC forecasts, ongoing ECB legal drama

Euro struggles amid poor EC forecasts, ongoing ECB legal drama

Today’s headlines are marked by the ongoing story of the German Federal Constitutional Court’s ruling that the European Central Bank must provide justification for its QE program within three months. The program in question is the Public Sector Purchase Program (PSPP) and would no longer have support from Bundesbank if the ECB fails to provide […] Lees Meer

EUR drawing all attention while pound crashes on construction PMIs

EUR drawing all attention while pound crashes on construction PMIs

The euro sharply fell against the dollar yesterday and has managed only a minor recovery since then, after a ruling from Germany’s Constitutional Court that the European Central Bank’s QE programme violates the ECB’s mandate under EU law. Lees Meer

SNB may be forced to cut rates as EURCHF fails to break 1.06 as sight deposits rise

SNB may be forced to cut rates as EURCHF fails to break 1.06 as sight deposits rise

In the current Covid-19 environment, the Swiss franc has seen considerable pressure from safe haven inflows which are unlikely to abate until the global economy starts to show signs of recovery. Lees Meer

German constitutional court ruling casts shadow of doubt over ECB

German constitutional court ruling casts shadow of doubt over ECB

The euro is among the worst performers in the G10 today, after Germany’s top constitutional court ruled on a suit against the ECB. The German Federal Constitutional Court ruled in a 7-1 decision that the ECB had not violated treaty prohibitions against monetary financing, which were the core of the claim. Lees Meer

USD bid as German court ruling puts question mark over ECB remit

USD bid as German court ruling puts question mark over ECB remit

The euro is trading with a nervous tone this morning, and is among the worst performers against the dollar among the G10 currencies. Germany’s constitutional court announced a verdict today on the legality of the ECB’s asset purchase program, finding 7-1 in favour of the central bank. Lees Meer

Risk aversion continues to drive markets on renewed US-China tensions

Risk aversion continues to drive markets on renewed US-China tensions

With the global economy sitting in a fragile state due to the impacts of COVID-19, news from Europe that Italy will ease lockdown measures for manufacturing and construction sectors starting today would normally equate to a brief euro rally. Lees Meer

Bank of England to shift focus to liquidity support

Bank of England to shift focus to liquidity support

Thursday’s Bank of England meeting will mark a shift in priorities for the Monetary Policy Committee. At March’s extraordinary meeting on the 19th, the main objective was to restore functioning in UK financial markets, especially gilts, and preventing further tightening in financial conditions. Lees Meer

Dollar bounces back after month-end exodus, but euro still supported by ECB

Dollar bounces back after month-end exodus, but euro still supported by ECB

This week’s trend of dollar weakness intensified yesterday, with the greenback weakening against most major currencies. The dollar’s losses accelerated around 4pm London time, when the daily “fixed” exchange rates were recorded by WM/Reuters. Lees Meer

How do you say “whatever it takes” in French?

How do you say “whatever it takes” in French?

The ECB has kept its asset purchase program unchanged, but has tweaked its Long Term Refinancing Operations to make them more appealing to banks while also announcing a new facility, the Pandemic Long Term Refinancing Operations. Lees Meer

Quiet G10 session sees dollar weaken further as ECB steps into gap left by European leaders

Quiet G10 session sees dollar weaken further as ECB steps into gap left by European leaders

The dynamic loosely remains one of improving risk appetite: on the day, EUR and JPY are among the worst performers, GBP and SEK the best. Conditions in interbank lending markets appear to be showing a marked improvement. Lees Meer

USDZAR Note

USDZAR Note

The South African rand was one of the worst-performing currencies in the expanded majors during March as the dollar reigned supreme in the global flight to safety. The rand depreciated nearly 16% against the dollar and 15.8% against the euro in March. Lees Meer

ECB steps up to the plate after eurozone leaders under-deliver on virus response

ECB steps up to the plate after eurozone leaders under-deliver on virus response

The European Central Bank meeting will be in the spotlight today, with the rate decision being released at 12:45 BST and followed by a press conference at 13:30 BST. Lees Meer

The ECB is urged to “fill the gap” in the Eurozone

The ECB is urged to “fill the gap” in the Eurozone

Since the beginning of the coronavirus crisis, the European Central Bank has delivered a relatively rapid response to the economic challenges, mainly focusing on credit conditions. Lees Meer

Tension is mounting ahead of FOMC decision

Tension is mounting ahead of FOMC decision

With today’s Fed announcement, no further reductions in rates are expected as the FOMC has already cut rates close to zero and Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated earlier last month that he does not see negative policy rates as “likely to be an appropriate policy response here in the United States”. Lees Meer

USD hammered amid broad risk-on move

USD hammered amid broad risk-on move

As always it’s tempting to look for meaning in intraday price action. The most likely explanation of today’s dollar weakness seems to be a broad improvement in risk appetite. Lees Meer

Markets consider re-opening of economies as USD softens

Markets consider re-opening of economies as USD softens

The dollar was caught on the back foot yesterday as developments in the APAC area sparked a mild risk-on mood in markets. Exit strategies in parts of Australia and increasing monetary stimulus measures from the Bank of Japan shaved off some of the fear regarding global growth. Lees Meer

APAC news causes risk rally in otherwise quiet markets

APAC news causes risk rally in otherwise quiet markets

Little has changed from this morning’s session as markets still trade off of headlines that the Bank of Japan will increase their QE program, Australia will begin to relax lockdown measures, and the worst affected European nation’s eye exit plans. Lees Meer

FOMC meeting: no action, but plenty to think about

FOMC meeting: no action, but plenty to think about

Jerome Powell and the FOMC are entitled to at least a tentative note of self-congratulation at this week’s meeting, on Wednesday, as so far the Fed’s measures in response to the covid-19 crisis appear to be having their desired effect on the US economy and financial markets. Lees Meer

G10 rallies against USD as APAC news boosts growth sentiment

G10 rallies against USD as APAC news boosts growth sentiment

The dollar trades on the back foot this morning as the global coronavirus curve continued to flatten over the weekend, enabling governments to begin eyeing up exit plans. Lees Meer

COVID-19: Global Policy Responses

COVID-19: Global Policy Responses

Since the outbreak of the coronavirus in late December, COVID-19 has rapidly spread across the globe with nearly 3 million cases confirmed.  With this in mind, we have kept a track of all of the fiscal and monetary measures put in place by governments and central banks in the G10 since the onset of the virus. Lees Meer

EU leaders fail to reach agreement on recovery package

EU leaders fail to reach agreement on recovery package

The euro is reaching fresh lows this morning in the aftermath of the EU summit, and has weakened to its lowest level against the US dollar since March 24. Lees Meer

No PMI Panic

No PMI Panic

This morning’s purchasing managers indices for the eurozone and UK were by far the worst on record, confirming an unprecedented economic slowdown across the region’s major economies. Lees Meer

PMIs in focus as markets gauge economic toll of COVID-19

PMIs in focus as markets gauge economic toll of COVID-19

The tentative pricing likely reflects the April preliminary PMIs that were set to be released later on in the morning. At 09:30 BST, the data was released and the initial estimates followed suit with that seen in the eurozone. Lees Meer

MXN unaltered by Banxico’s emergency move

MXN unaltered by Banxico’s emergency move

The Bank of Mexico stepped in yesterday with a unanimous inter-meeting decision to cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 6%. Lees Meer

Dollar rally eases as WTI stabilises on talk of oil support

Dollar rally eases as WTI stabilises on talk of oil support

Yesterday’s collapse in oil markets was the source for the dollar rally. While oil benchmarks sit in positive territory now, unlike WTI quotations for the last 2 days due to a quirk in the futures contracts. Lees Meer

ZEW Survey Current Assessment and Expectations

ZEW Survey Current Assessment and Expectations

The headline ZEW expectations index surged to 28.2 in April, following a dismal reading of -49.5 in March and overshooting Bloomberg’s median forecast at -42.0. The assessment of the current situation printed -91.5, far below the forecasted -77.5 and the prior reading of 43.1.  The divergence between the current situation and the expectations has not […] Lees Meer

Mild dollar strength after May delivery oil contract trades with negative price in US

Mild dollar strength after May delivery oil contract trades with negative price in US

The dollar strengthened overnight, after the widely traded West Texas Intermediate benchmark for crude oil delivery saw astonishing declines in prices for delivery next month. Lees Meer

NZD enjoys boost on easing of lockdown measures

NZD enjoys boost on easing of lockdown measures

This weakening of binary risk on/risk off dynamics may create trading conditions in G10 FX more conducive to idiosyncratic drivers such as economic and virus data. Lees Meer

FX response more subdued to this morning’s plunge in crude oil, compared to a week ago

FX response more subdued to this morning’s plunge in crude oil, compared to a week ago

The prospect of negative front-end oil prices still remains a viable concept purely due to the lack of storage space, although markets are still some way off this being an inevitability at present. Lees Meer

Dollar strength fades as risk appetite improves

Dollar strength fades as risk appetite improves

The dollar is trading lower at the margin overnight, with the G10 currencies following a pattern consistent with an improvement in risk appetite. Lees Meer

US Job claims suggest COVID-19 wipes out financial crisis recovery 

US Job claims suggest COVID-19 wipes out financial crisis recovery 

Today’s jobless claims data from the US saw another dramatic rise in the number of unemployed persons claiming insurance benefits. The 5.245m number of claims registered in the week ending April 11th has seen the aggregate number of job losses, if this is a true measure, erase the employment gains made since the global financial […] Lees Meer

USD progress continues 

USD progress continues 

The dollar saw a burst of strength yesterday as crude oil prices collapsed and risk appetite deteriorated, and the dollar is up against most major currencies this morning, although the rate of its progress has slowed somewhat. Lees Meer

USD rips higher as OPEC+ cuts insufficient to stem global glut

USD rips higher as OPEC+ cuts insufficient to stem global glut

The dollar is broadly higher this morning after risk appetite soured as falls in crude oil prices accelerated. JPY is dominating G10 FX along with CHF, while EM currencies are mostly in the red. Lees Meer

Risk appetite sours as crude oil falls on demand fears

Risk appetite sours as crude oil falls on demand fears

Falls in crude oil prices this morning coincided with the change in tone in FX markets, as the Brent crude oil benchmark bell below $30 this morning after trading stable overnight. Lees Meer

Risk appetite continues to improve after Eurozone and OPEC deals, fresh Fed measures

Risk appetite continues to improve after Eurozone and OPEC deals, fresh Fed measures

Markets traded with a relaxed tone this morning, characterised by a modest but continued recovery in risk appetite and easing financial conditions, accompanied by a weaker US dollar. Lees Meer

Semblance of calm in FX markets as Europe lockdown persists

Semblance of calm in FX markets as Europe lockdown persists

Lockdown measures in hard-hit countries such as France and Italy will be in focus this week. The UK and EU will return to Brexit negotiations on Wednesday after the lead negotiators on both sides fell ill with Covid-19 last month. Lees Meer

US dollar falls amid Fed credit measures, OPEC+ and Eurogroup

US dollar falls amid Fed credit measures, OPEC+ and Eurogroup

The dollar is lower this afternoon, after the Fed announced a raft of aggressive new credit easing measures. On the whole it seems global macro markets are no longer trading in a binary “risk on, risk off” dynamic – this suggests risk appetite on the whole has improved, for the time being. Lees Meer

Dollar mixed with key announcements pencilled in for today’s session

Dollar mixed with key announcements pencilled in for today’s session

The main news for the greenback yesterday was the release of the first set of Fed minutes since its dramatic decision to drop rates to its effective lower bound. Today, Fed chair Powell will likely give more clarity to markets with an economic update scheduled via webcast at 15:00BST.  Lees Meer

Eurogroup failure sees ominous tightening in European interbank funding markets

Eurogroup failure sees ominous tightening in European interbank funding markets

European finance ministers failed to reach an agreement on a response to the virus pandemic after a marathon 16-hour conference call that went through last night. Lees Meer

EU finance ministers fail to reach consensus over virus response

EU finance ministers fail to reach consensus over virus response

The euro is trading lower this morning, after a marathon 16-hour eurogroup call failed to result in a joint statement or a breakthrough. Italy’s finance minister Roberto Gualtierie requested to have debt mutualisation explicitly mentioned in the final report sent to EU leaders. Lees Meer

Risk-on returns as investors eye signs of coronavirus slowing

Risk-on returns as investors eye signs of coronavirus slowing

While the number of fatalities and new confirmed cases continues to pile up, the daily change in both figures have shown consistent evidence that the pandemic curves could be somewhere near to peaking. Lees Meer

Dollar retreats as risk-on move prevails on slowing virus data in European hotspots

Dollar retreats as risk-on move prevails on slowing virus data in European hotspots

Yesterday’s tentative dollar weakness accelerated into a broad retreat overnight as US equity markets rallied and investor risk appetite seemed to almost turn bullish, despite the ongoing global coronavirus pandemic. Lees Meer

ZAR hits a record low but rebounds aggressively amid some optimism in global markets

ZAR hits a record low but rebounds aggressively amid some optimism in global markets

The introduction of COVID-19 has exacerbated the economic contraction as South Africa, along with many developed markets, enters an extended containment period which shuts down both manufacturing and social consumption. Lees Meer

OPEC+ and Eurogroup conference calls in focus as next major policy decisions

OPEC+ and Eurogroup conference calls in focus as next major policy decisions

WTI has opened today’s session marginally lower than it closed on Friday, due to the OPEC+ meeting being pushed from today to Thursday, but a level of support in oil markets still remains as optimism over a 10m barrel cut lingers from last week. Lees Meer

US dollar pares losses – but no sign of March madness despite a week of awful data

US dollar pares losses – but no sign of March madness despite a week of awful data

The US dollar is broadly higher this week, but at this point, it looks like a recouping of some of last week’s sell-off, as opposed to the beginning of another leg of intense dollar buying of the sort seen in mid-March. Lees Meer

Trump makes bold claims of oil production cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia

Trump makes bold claims of oil production cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia

Donald Trump continued his extraordinary efforts to support crude oil prices yesterday, by claiming that Saudi Arabia and Russia would cut oil output by 10-15 million barrels. Russian officials were quick to deny that Putin and the crown prince of Saudi Arabia had spoken. Lees Meer

Trump tweets send oil skyrocketing

Trump tweets send oil skyrocketing

Donald Trump has sent oil prices and petro-currencies soaring after saying that he hoped Saudi Arabia and Russia would agree to oil production cuts of 10-15m barrels. Lees Meer

Sky-rocket US jobless claims dictate FX dynamics today

Sky-rocket US jobless claims dictate FX dynamics today

Yesterday, the DXY dollar index ticked higher on an apparent bounce from last week's losses. The move could be hardly attributed to safe-heaven pressures as per the relaxed, or even positive, performance of most financial conditions indicators. Lees Meer

NOK and CAD rise as oil jumped on China’s purchase plan

NOK and CAD rise as oil jumped on China’s purchase plan

While both the krone and CAD are benefitting from the oil rally, the Norwegian krone is leading in the G10 space. NOK's faster recovery compared to the Canadian dollar shows that while oil has been the main character in today's gains. Lees Meer

Trump continues Open Mouth Operations aimed at crude oil markets

Trump continues Open Mouth Operations aimed at crude oil markets

Donald Trump continued open mouth operations aimed at raising crude oil prices, saying that he thought Saudi Arabia would “come up with something” to end their price war and save the US shale industry. Lees Meer

No one knows what to do with the dollar

No one knows what to do with the dollar

The dollar remains bid today, despite a period of relative calm in bond markets, financial conditions, and USD funding markets. This suggests that the dollar strength we have seen this week is not panic buying, but simply a steady demand for greenbacks after last week’s sell-off. Lees Meer

Dismal manufacturing PMIs from Hungary push the forint to another record low

Dismal manufacturing PMIs from Hungary push the forint to another record low

The Hungarian forint continues to slide, reaching another record low against the euro this morning in a new wave of selling following dismal manufacturing figures, combined with a global risk-off mood. Lees Meer

A mixed beginning to an uncertain second quarter for FX and macro markets

A mixed beginning to an uncertain second quarter for FX and macro markets

Global markets saw a volatile end to a volatile second quarter yesterday, with the dollar at first strengthening against JPY before rapidly losing ground in the evening. Lees Meer

Markets might get used to ugly data for a while

Markets might get used to ugly data for a while

G10 FX has had an eventful day so far, with the US dollar remaining bid and up against the whole G10 except for NOK. NZD and AUD were in the green briefly in the early hours of the morning after Chinese PMI data printed much better than expected. Lees Meer

Chinese PMIs, Trump and Putin call lift sentiment

Chinese PMIs, Trump and Putin call lift sentiment

Despite the overnight rally in crude oil prices, the significance of Trump and Putin’s call remains to be seen, as the core dynamic causing the plunge in crude oil prices remains the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Lees Meer

USD bid during uneventful morning session

USD bid during uneventful morning session

Monday has proven to be a reasonably uneventful open to the week after the tumult of the past three weeks. The dollar is trading modestly higher against the G10 currencies today, although there is little sign of the intense investor panic and risk aversion that drove the dollar to highs earlier in the month. Lees Meer

South Africa lost Moody’s Investment-Grade Credit Rating

South Africa lost Moody’s Investment-Grade Credit Rating

March has not bought an easy end to the quarter for the South African economy, as the nation has been dealing with a mix of structural domestic concerns over the economy and international fears over the spread of coronavirus. Even before the virus spread globally, the country was struggled with various macro issues – since the end of 2019, unemployment has hit […] Lees Meer

Crude oil plunges as US dollar pares back last week’s losses

Crude oil plunges as US dollar pares back last week’s losses

Crude oil prices fell to fresh lows overnight, as lockdown conditions continue to hit global demand and the ongoing Saudi-Russia price war means that high production is contributing to a worsening supply glut. Lees Meer

Dollar holds steady, EU squabble and BoC surprise

Dollar holds steady, EU squabble and BoC surprise

The greenback fell by over a percentage point against all G10 currencies yesterday as liquidity conditions improved in markets and the dollar's synthetically produced strength due to credit and liquidity issues unwound. Lees Meer

Dollar weakens on increased liquidity measures and jump in COVID-19 cases

Dollar weakens on increased liquidity measures and jump in COVID-19 cases

The dollar spent another session yesterday sitting in the red against all of its G10 counterparts. The number of cases in the US surged by more than 17,000 yesterday as the US overtook China as the nation with the most infections. Lees Meer

Markets breathe a tentative sigh of relief

Markets breathe a tentative sigh of relief

Price action across FX, equities, and fixed income are suggesting a mood of relief today, with the US dollar lower across the board and equities higher after the US Senate passed a $2 trillion fiscal stimulus bill. Lees Meer

Markets still focus on virus data as fiscal stimulus released in North America

Markets still focus on virus data as fiscal stimulus released in North America

Markets look as if they are returning to normality today as the greenback trades mixed against its G10 peers, while currency moves against the dollar in the EM space appear to be less dramatic. Lees Meer

USD may find support as Central Banks up liquidity

USD may find support as Central Banks up liquidity

The US dollar continues to trade on the back foot in today’s session following its fall from grace yesterday. The DXY index, which tracks the dollar's performance against most major trading partners, continued its fall this week from a 4-year high. Lees Meer

Dollar falls and risk appetite improves as Senate reaches fiscal stimulus deal

Dollar falls and risk appetite improves as Senate reaches fiscal stimulus deal

After showing tentative signs of weakness yesterday morning, the dollar began a true retreat late yesterday evening and continued this morning, helped along by the news that the US Senate had reached a fiscal stimulus deal worth almost $2 trillion. Lees Meer

Latest Fed measures seem to be working, for now.

Latest Fed measures seem to be working, for now.

After a worrying initial market reaction yesterday, the Fed's aggressive monetary and credit easing measures appear to be working. The US dollar is generally weaker across the board, US equity futures are pointing up, and there are reasons to believe the pressure on financial conditions may be easing. Lees Meer

Norwegian krone sees record volatility

Norwegian krone sees record volatility

As the most volatile currency in the expanded major currency space over the past week, the Norwegian krone has been swept away in the worsening virus-driven economic knockout and was hit by the double whammy of a strengthening dollar and a collapse in oil markets. Lees Meer

Flash PMI Data: UK & Eurozone

Flash PMI Data: UK & Eurozone

Flash Purchasing Managers Indices for the UK and leading Eurozone economies will be released on Tuesday morning, giving markets a first look at the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on business confidence. Lees Meer

BoE Primer

BoE Primer

The combined fiscal and monetary response from the UK is both cutting edge and timely and is likely to be studied in textbooks for decades to come. As far as mitigating the economic impact of the coronavirus, it is likely to be a “best in class” solution in terms of scope and timeliness. Lees Meer

Fed switches to “Whatever it takes” in bid to beat yield curve and financial conditions into submission

Fed switches to “Whatever it takes” in bid to beat yield curve and financial conditions into submission

Jerome Powell and the FOMC have finally had their “whatever it takes moment” and promised open ended asset purchases aimed at beating the US yield curve and financial conditions into submission. Lees Meer

Fiscal bazookas fire in UK and Germany, dollar strength abates…for now

Fiscal bazookas fire in UK and Germany, dollar strength abates…for now

Sterling is trading roughly flat against the euro this morning compared to Friday’s open, suggesting that Friday’s seismic fiscal measures from Rishi Sunak have not had a significant impact on sterling, which remains driven by global risk appetite. Lees Meer

Markets breathe a sigh of relief, but is it short lived?

Markets breathe a sigh of relief, but is it short lived?

All major currencies are in the green against the US dollar overnight, after the wave of risk aversion and dollar liquidity stress that drove the greenback higher has abated slightly. Lees Meer

Norges Bank surprises with another rate cut

Norges Bank surprises with another rate cut

Norges Bank unanimously decided to cut its benchmark policy rate by 75 bps to 0.25% this morning - a record low for Norway's economy. The previous cut was announced just a week ago when the central bank reduced its policy rate from 1.5% to 1%. Lees Meer

Currencies rally vs US dollar amid reprieve in global risk-aversion

Currencies rally vs US dollar amid reprieve in global risk-aversion

Global currencies began to rally overnight as risk appetite improved and bond yields fell in the developed world, although some major currencies have yet to recoup their losses from yesterday. Lees Meer

USD note

USD note

The dollar’s rampage continues into another session today in FX markets, focusing on the G10 currencies that previously performed well amidst the market turmoil; EUR, JPY and CHF. Lees Meer

BoE joins wave of desperate central bank action aimed at stabilising sovereign bond markets

BoE joins wave of desperate central bank action aimed at stabilising sovereign bond markets

The Bank of England has decided to cut interest rates by 15 basis points to 0.1%, and will increase asset holdings by £200 billion following an extraordinary meeting. Lees Meer

ECB joins the bazooka volley as US dollar runs rampant

ECB joins the bazooka volley as US dollar runs rampant

In a dramatic late night announcement that came after a marathon Governing Council conference call, the ECB announced plans to buy an additional €750 billion of bonds over the course of this year, covering both sovereign and corporate debt. Lees Meer

USDNOK reaches levels never seen before

USDNOK reaches levels never seen before

Worsening concerns about the global impact of Coronavirus and plunging crude oil prices have created a perfect storm for commodity currencies, especially NOK. Lees Meer

What to expect from SNB tomorrow

What to expect from SNB tomorrow

The Swiss franc currently sits at a 5-year high against the euro on the back of increased global demand for heaven assets triggered by fears of recessions occurring globally. Lees Meer

Canada unveils $82bn fiscal package

Canada unveils $82bn fiscal package

Worryingly for spectators, PM Trudeau sidestepped questions about whether the Canadian economy is set for a recession, which it undoubtedly is in the current climate. USDCAD continues to climb higher towards levels not seen since 2016, with the high of 1.4690 now in scope.  Lees Meer

Sterling falls to unstoppable US dollar as markets stare down the barrel of crisis…

Sterling falls to unstoppable US dollar as markets stare down the barrel of crisis…

Sterling has fallen to the lowest level against the US dollar since 1985 amid a global dollar liquidity shortage that has seen the greenback run rampant against all major currencies. Lees Meer

US float huge fiscal package and central banks open 2008 playbook

US float huge fiscal package and central banks open 2008 playbook

The fiscal windfall sent the dollar on a tear, with nothing standing in its path - a theme that may be set to continue playing out today. On top of all of these measures, the Fed will also begin reviewing easing bank leverage and accounting rules to improve the transmission of credit. Lees Meer

The Fed dusts off another 2008 liquidity tool

The Fed dusts off another 2008 liquidity tool

The Federal Reserve today said it has established a new Commercial Paper Funding Facility, similar to that used during the 2008 financial crisis, to try and appease further dollar funding stresses – this time in non-financial corporate debt markets. Lees Meer

MXN faces further downward risks under current market uncertainty

MXN faces further downward risks under current market uncertainty

The peso has led losses driven by the coronavirus within the EM space, and its dominant trading volume in Latam has made it particularly sensitive to recent market turmoil in the area. Lees Meer

Fear dominates FX as equities see worst day since 1987 Black Monday

Fear dominates FX as equities see worst day since 1987 Black Monday

The rout in equity markets was the largest since Black Monday in 1987, dwarfing what was seen last Thursday in the volatile session, sparking discussion whether benchmarks should be closed after trading in certain sub-sectors in Europe was halted. Lees Meer

Fed Throws the Kitchen Sink

Fed Throws the Kitchen Sink

The Fed has thrown the kitchen sink of easing measures at the coronavirus crisis. This may take the edge off the dollar strength seen recently but will not cause broad weakness. US yields have fallen and liquidity stress is likely to ease due to the scale of the Fed’s repo and swap arrangements. Lees Meer

Fed goes nuclear to suppress dollar demand and mitigate economic impact from virus

Fed goes nuclear to suppress dollar demand and mitigate economic impact from virus

The Federal Reserve has taken the extraordinary step of slashing interest rates a full percentage point, restarting quantitative easing, and announcing a host of additional liquidity and credit easing measures. Lees Meer

BoC, RBNZ and Fed latest to take rates closer to lower bound

BoC, RBNZ and Fed latest to take rates closer to lower bound

The measures included the Federal Funds rate being cut to its historical lower bound, $700bn of asset purchases, and a host of liquidity and credit measures including coordinated USD swap provision to other central banks. Lees Meer

Hunt for dollars hurts everything in its path

Hunt for dollars hurts everything in its path

The dollar reigned supreme yesterday as liquidity dried up in swap and treasury markets with investors ditching foreign assets and running for safety in US dollars. Lees Meer

ECB opts for scalpel instead of bazooka as Lagarde delivers train wreck press conference

ECB opts for scalpel instead of bazooka as Lagarde delivers train wreck press conference

Christine Lagarde has opted for a scalpel instead of a bazooka. Although there is merit to the ECB’s targeted lending approach, today is likely to go down in history for Lagarde’s fateful and possibly catastrophic remarks about sovereign spreads. Lees Meer

ECB expected to unveil further stimulus despite tool kit emptying

ECB expected to unveil further stimulus despite tool kit emptying

Christine Lagarde and the Governing Council of the European Central Bank will face up to the emerging coronavirus shock to the European economy and sky-high expectations for monetary stimulus. The euro has softened slightly after reaching a one year high earlier in the month. Lees Meer

The Bazooka Budget

The Bazooka Budget

Today’s measures show not just synchronisation between the Treasury and Bank of England, but massive coordinated fiscal and monetary stimulus. Sunak was keen to emphasise this coordination early in his speech; instead of merely taking policy action at the same time, the BoE and treasury have clearly built their response to be synergistic, particularly in targeting support to businesses. Lees Meer

BoE sends message of policy synchronization with Treasury, setting stage for historic budget

BoE sends message of policy synchronization with Treasury, setting stage for historic budget

The Bank of England has cut its policy rate by 50 basis points this morning, slightly surprising markets but failing to move the needle much for sterling. Lees Meer

Bank of England synchronises surprise 50bp cut with spring budget spending spree

Bank of England synchronises surprise 50bp cut with spring budget spending spree

Sterling is trading higher this morning, despite a surprise 50 basis point rate cut from the Bank of England. The BoE cut rates and announced additional measures to support lending to small and medium enterprises. Lees Meer

Stimulus from Trump et al brings rationality back to markets

Stimulus from Trump et al brings rationality back to markets

Trump is due to meet with representatives from both houses later today to discuss potential tax breaks and support for workers on hourly wage contracts “so they don’t get penalised for something that isn’t their fault”. Lees Meer

JPY has woken up

JPY has woken up

As economic and financial risks to the economy intensify, markets are looking to Japanese fiscal and monetary policy for an aggressive response. Lees Meer

UK budget set to blow the doors off

UK budget set to blow the doors off

Receptive market conditions, changing political ideologies, and the coronavirus shock all mean that this week’s UK budget is likely to see Rishi Sunak open the fiscal taps and allow the UK deficit to increase.  Lees Meer

Market turmoil continues as oil markets head for price war

Market turmoil continues as oil markets head for price war

Oil markets slumped over 30% on open, marking the largest slide since the US war with Iraq in 1991, as Saudi officials planned to open the taps after Russia refused to support the cartel’s plan to cut oil production. Lees Meer

US yields tumble as stocks remain under pressure

US yields tumble as stocks remain under pressure

The dollar continues to trade on the back foot today with February’s Nonfarm Payroll release in scope. Treasury yields continued to fall in Asian trading today. Lees Meer

Tentative signs of USD softening against safe carry trade targets

Tentative signs of USD softening against safe carry trade targets

The dollar has traded on the back foot this morning, with modest losses coming against GBP and NZD in the G10 space and KRW, MYR, and TYD elsewhere. This pattern is consistent with a modest improvement in risk appetite relating to open, developed economies. Lees Meer

Jay Powell takes out the big guns with intra-meeting cut not seen since 2008

Jay Powell takes out the big guns with intra-meeting cut not seen since 2008

The Fed’s surprise rate cut was the first outside of a regular monetary policy meeting since 2008, and was accompanied by a press conference where Fed chair Jerome Powell said the US economy remained strong, but that the early indicators of the virus’s impact had worsened the outlook and prompted a rate cut. Lees Meer

FOMC cuts rates outside of a meeting for the first time since 2008

FOMC cuts rates outside of a meeting for the first time since 2008

Jay Powell and the Fed have taken the warning financial markets have given about coronavirus over the past weeks to heart and brought out the big guns with a 50bp intra-meeting rate cut. Lees Meer

Markets weigh more rate cuts as RBA sets the pace

Markets weigh more rate cuts as RBA sets the pace

The Australian dollar saw modest strength overnight as the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its Bank Rate by 25 basis points and warned of a “significant effect” from the coronavirus outbreak on the nation’s economy. Lees Meer

Murmurings of fiscal action in Germany

Murmurings of fiscal action in Germany

With the euro attempting a nascent recovery last week in the face of a worsening virus shock, and the ECB seemingly resistant to short term policy easing, hopes of a fiscal response from the eurozone’s largest economy came in to focus last week. Lees Meer

Bank of Canada preview – wiggle room may dissipate by April’s meeting

Bank of Canada preview – wiggle room may dissipate by April’s meeting

Next week’s Bank of Canada meeting is arguably too soon to see a rate cut from Governor Poloz, but swap markets have aggressively priced in a greater than 50% probability on Friday afternoon alone. Lees Meer

Markets resume battle against virus with central bank policy on the front-line

Markets resume battle against virus with central bank policy on the front-line

GBP Sterling has joined the rest of the G10 in the small overnight rally seen against the US dollar, after a historically volatile past week for markets, amid worsening coronavirus fears. Boris Johnson and the Government will have a busy week, as trade negotiations with the EU begin this morning, and the Prime Minister chairs […] Lees Meer

Global markets convulse with risk aversion

Global markets convulse with risk aversion

Another day, another EURUSD rally. At first glance, it may seem like the pair is ignoring the risk-off environment, with the eurozone economy likely vulnerable to the global growth shock. Lees Meer

Sterling sells off on latest brinkmanship from Boris

Sterling sells off on latest brinkmanship from Boris

As outlined in earlier speeches, the mandate is a bid for absolute control over UK standards for competition, environmental standards, labour rights, and the other areas that the EU has insisted must be subject to “level playing field” provisions. Lees Meer

Dollar sustaining losses on bets that the Fed will lower rates in March

Dollar sustaining losses on bets that the Fed will lower rates in March

The dollar continued to firm throughout yesterday’s session as coronavirus fears weighed on markets for yet another day. The greenback’s fortunes have been reversed somewhat in this morning’s trading session, however, with euro and SEK leading the line in the G10 rally. Lees Meer

Rand rallies despite upwards revisions to debt trajectory

Rand rallies despite upwards revisions to debt trajectory

Following the release of February’s medium-term budget statement, the South African rand reversed its losses early in today’s session to sit half a percentage point higher on a day where markets battle a heightened risk environment and the dollar continued to firm across the board. Lees Meer

Markets convulse as coronavirus outbreak teeters on the brink of becoming a pandemic

Markets convulse as coronavirus outbreak teeters on the brink of becoming a pandemic

The greenback took on some water yesterday as Monday’s aggressive pricing of coronavirus risk marginally unwound. The theme of dollar strength is back with a vengeance today. Lees Meer

Las bolsas internacionales entran en pánico por nuevos brotes del coronavirus

Las bolsas internacionales entran en pánico por nuevos brotes del coronavirus

Las bolsas europeas vieron ayer su mayor desplome intra-diario desde la debacle del referéndum del Brexit en 2016, en un día dominado por el pánico sobre los brotes del coronavirus en Italia. Lees Meer

Bloodbath for bullish investors as equity markets roiled by fresh virus concerns

Bloodbath for bullish investors as equity markets roiled by fresh virus concerns

US equity markets were slammed in yesterday’s session, with the day’s trading best described as a bloodbath. Fresh coronavirus fears sparked more risk-off selling and following the US PMI data, equity markets began to fear the worst. Lees Meer

Mboweni’s medium-term budget in scope for South African investors

Mboweni’s medium-term budget in scope for South African investors

Following an underwhelming State of the Nation Address by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa two weeks ago, market participants turn their eye to Finance Minister Tito Mboweni’s medium-term budget announcement on Wednesday 26th. Lees Meer

IFO Data Release Exceeds Expectations

IFO Data Release Exceeds Expectations

This morning’s IFO data release saw upside surprises in all three readings. Being based on ~9000 survey responses from German firms in different sectors, the IFO reading is a leading indicator of any turning points in the German economy. Lees Meer

Eurozone PMIs rise due to coronavirus supply chain disruption

Eurozone PMIs rise due to coronavirus supply chain disruption

The euro managed to resist further depreciation against the greenback yesterday, while global currencies traded with a risk-off tone and the greenback advanced elsewhere. This morning, the pair continued to bounce back from yesterday’s lows. Lees Meer

UK consumer spending uptick comes after noisy adjustments

UK consumer spending uptick comes after noisy adjustments

January’s retail sales report suggests that UK consumers are joining in the burst of optimism experienced by businesses in the new year. Lees Meer

Carnage for JPY as low growth and virus outbreak cause sentiment reversal

Carnage for JPY as low growth and virus outbreak cause sentiment reversal

The Japanese yen was utterly routed yesterday, and with its losses continuing this morning USDJPY is trading 2% higher than Tuesday’s lows. The weakness makes sense in the wider context of Japan’s macro-economy. Lees Meer

Canada’s inflationary overshoot may not last

Canada’s inflationary overshoot may not last

Today’s CPI release saw headline inflation overshoot expectations by 0.1 percentage points to post a print of 2.4% in January – the highest reading in 15 months. However, the loonie’s reaction was relatively muted. Lees Meer

Euro remains under relentless pressure as data disappoints

Euro remains under relentless pressure as data disappoints

The euro tumbled further yesterday as German ZEW economic sentiment slumped to 8.8 in February compared to the 21.5 consensus. EURUSD reached its lowest level since April 2017 in the hours after the release. Lees Meer

Sterling down over fears that UK-EU relations are about to turn frosty

Sterling down over fears that UK-EU relations are about to turn frosty

Sterling began to lose ground yesterday, with its losses accelerating this morning as the US dollar gained against most currencies. Some of the recent losses in sterling may be attributable to a combative speech in Brussels by David Frost. Lees Meer

Markets vs. the Fed: An ongoing debate

Markets vs. the Fed: An ongoing debate

The Federal Reserve fund futures prices show that markets are expecting more easing from the Fed this year, probably as a result of the macroeconomic impact of the coronavirus outbreak. Lees Meer

UK PMIs follow Javid resignation

UK PMIs follow Javid resignation

Sajid Javid’s resignation as Chancellor of the Exchequer last week triggered a rally in sterling, as markets began to speculate that his departure suggested an increased likelihood of fiscal stimulus from Boris Johnson’s government. Lees Meer

Presidents’ day calm belies ongoing risks

Presidents’ day calm belies ongoing risks

With the US enjoying the Presidents’ day holiday today the dollar is trading with low volatility to most major currencies. EM currencies are in the green after the Chinese central bank lowered one year lending rates and offered medium term lending facilities to borrowers. Lees Meer

China’s new diagnostics rattle risk sentiment

China’s new diagnostics rattle risk sentiment

The greenback saw another swathe of strength yesterday as a new methodology in spotting virus infections in China caused not only 14,480 more cases to be diagnosed, but also a risk-off rally as fears of a more entrenched outbreak rippled through markets. Lees Meer

Sterling rallies on hopes that Sajid Javid’s resignation heralds a Trumpian spending spree

Sterling rallies on hopes that Sajid Javid’s resignation heralds a Trumpian spending spree

This morning’s cabinet shuffle turned out to be exiting after all, when Chancellor Sajid Javid resigned after reportedly being asked to replace his staff of advisors with choices picked by Number 10. Lees Meer

Risk appetite goes into reverse on virus case count revision

Risk appetite goes into reverse on virus case count revision

Yesterday saw the dollar come under pressure as risk appetite was improving, but this trend reversed overnight after China changed the way coronavirus cases are counted, resulting in an increase of more than 15,000 cases. Lees Meer

Markets subdued in risk climate with no coronavirus updates

Markets subdued in risk climate with no coronavirus updates

Improving risk appetite weighed on the US dollar yesterday and overnight, as the greenback sold off against NZD, AUD, RUB, and most other major currencies. Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified to lawmakers from the House on monetary policy and warned of risks to the global economy from the coronavirus infection. Lees Meer

Sajid Javid sets out UK’s ambition for equivalence agreement with EU

Sajid Javid sets out UK’s ambition for equivalence agreement with EU

GBP saw a slight rally yesterday and overnight, amid a major leak of part of the UK’s negotiating position in trade talks with the EU, and ahead of today’s release of gross domestic product data. The “opening position” of the UK was snapped by a long-lens camera while an unreleased briefing paper was carried into downing street, and is being widely reported on in UK newspapers. Lees Meer

OPEC undecided heading into the weekend

OPEC undecided heading into the weekend

Last week’s emergency three-day OPEC meeting in Vienna in response to news that China’s oil demand has fallen by 20% due to the coronavirus lockdown has yet to bear fruit. Lees Meer

PBOC liquidity injection supports risk appetite

PBOC liquidity injection supports risk appetite

Overnight China’s central bank began providing targeted lending aimed at enabling banks to provide cheaper and faster credit to businesses involved in combating the Coronavirus outbreak, and against shoring up risk appetite globally. Lees Meer

Greenback roars with NFP in scope

Greenback roars with NFP in scope

The weighted DXY index of USD vs major currencies is trading at a high for the year, and is on track to enjoy its biggest weekly gain since September. Today’s non-farm payrolls report, therefore, will be facing high expectations when it is released at 13:30 GMT. Lees Meer

Dollar takes no prisoners as risk climate continues to shift

Dollar takes no prisoners as risk climate continues to shift

The dollar broadly firmed for another trading day yesterday with the broad dollar DXY index reaching levels not seen since late November. The data likely helped the greenback as risk sentiment continues to chop and change in markets as survey-based measures of output and employment change showed the strong state of the US economy. Lees Meer

Markets lick wounds as PBOC measures deemed ample, for now

Markets lick wounds as PBOC measures deemed ample, for now

Sterling began yesterday with an extension of its sell-off from Monday, reaching fresh lows in the morning, but then stabilised and managed to end the day marginally higher against the dollar and euro. On the whole, the US dollar has been on the back foot against AUD, SEK and NOK since yesterday’s tentative risk rally began, but advancing against CHF and JPY. Lees Meer

PBOC shores up risk appetite

PBOC shores up risk appetite

The Chinese renminbi gained some strength overnight as Chinese stocks stabilized after the largest recorded market loss following the virus outbreak and boosted sentiment. Lees Meer

Banxico easing likely to continue

Banxico easing likely to continue

The Mexican peso outperformed in the first month of 2020, being one of the only four currencies in the EM space with positive spot returns against the dollar. Lees Meer

CNY weakens but no signs of collapse

CNY weakens but no signs of collapse

The dollar is on firmer ground this morning after a partial sell-off at the end of the month on Friday. Data, politics, and geopolitics will create a rich mix of narratives this week for global markets, with the dollar caught up in the middle as usual. Lees Meer

Dollar strengthens with Trump acquittal and PCE in scope

Dollar strengthens with Trump acquittal and PCE in scope

The dollar had a mixed session yesterday, posting substantial losses against haven currencies and the pound while exacting a pound of flesh from commodity-linked G10 currencies. Lees Meer

Monetary Policy Committee majority not persuaded by “risk management considerations”

Monetary Policy Committee majority not persuaded by “risk management considerations”

The key factors driving the majority of the MPC voting to hold rates seems to have been the obvious ones: Brexit risk has fallen and the US and China have signed a trade truce. Lees Meer

Divisive BoE meeting could pressure sterling further

Divisive BoE meeting could pressure sterling further

Sterling traded lower again yesterday and continues today’s session in the same vein with the most divisive Bank of England policy meeting this afternoon at 12:00 GMT. Options markets are split almost 50/50 on whether the Monetary Policy Committee will cut rates by 25 basis points. Lees Meer

Fed meeting sparks little interest as coronavirus still prevalent

Fed meeting sparks little interest as coronavirus still prevalent

In usual times the FOMC decision tonight would be a major market event, however, committee members have signalled heavily that they have become more tolerant to an overshoot in inflation. Lees Meer

Loonie stands out in commodity-linked FX space as risk-off move sweeps markets

Loonie stands out in commodity-linked FX space as risk-off move sweeps markets

The loonie buffeted the slide in oil markets and the heightened risk-off climate relatively well yesterday when compared to other open economies in the G10 whose current account is exposed to commodity prices. Lees Meer

Volatility returns to USDCAD

Volatility returns to USDCAD

The Canadian dollar was one of the more exciting G10 currencies against the dollar last week with only the Norwegian krone and British pound proving more volatile. Lees Meer

FOMC in focus: on hold until proven otherwise

FOMC in focus: on hold until proven otherwise

This week’s FOMC meeting not only marks the first of eight meetings in 2020 but also the first time Jerome Powell faces both media and markets since the phase one trade deal was signed. Lees Meer

Monetary Policy Committee likely to hold rates in knife-edge decision

Monetary Policy Committee likely to hold rates in knife-edge decision

Thursday’s MPC decision will be the least clear cut in years, with UK data uncertainty and global conditions providing compelling arguments for both an “insurance” rate cut and for no change. Lees Meer

Global risk appetite sneezes

Global risk appetite sneezes

G10 FX markets are trading with a risk-off feel this morning, with the US dollar up against much of the G10, but down versus JPY and flat against EUR. The parameters of the virus’s epidemiological characteristics, namely its virulence and fatality, will be in focus this week, as will the extent of its international contagion. Lees Meer

UK businesses breathe a sigh of relief after election

UK businesses breathe a sigh of relief after election

The general election seems to have made a world of difference in UK business sentiment, which picked up sharply in January after what appears to have been a dismal fourth quarter. Lees Meer

Bank of England bets rest on today’s PMI releases

Bank of England bets rest on today’s PMI releases

Sterling traded in a tight range yesterday after showing a significant bout of strength on Wednesday due to November’s strong labour market data. The Bank of England rate decision at the end of the month remains the only game in town for the pound with swap markets pricing in a 50% probability of a rate cut. Lees Meer

EUR lower after Lagarde dodges big questions

EUR lower after Lagarde dodges big questions

The euro has reached fresh lows for the year after Christine Lagarde’s second press conference as ECB President. The ECB kept rates on hold, and formally announced the scope of its monetary policy strategy review. Lees Meer

Central banks take over market focus

Central banks take over market focus

The euro continued its two-way price moves yesterday and remained well within this week’s range, but saw a short drop after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose “very high” tariffs on car imports from the EU if the bloc does not agree to a trade deal. Lees Meer

Sterling high as CBI survey shows surge in business optimism

Sterling high as CBI survey shows surge in business optimism

Sterling has seen a small upwards move on the news, with both GBPEUR and GBPUSD reaching the highs of the day. The report does clearly show an improvement in business sentiment, including all-important investment intentions. Lees Meer

Dollar firms on contagion risk and proposed tax cuts pre-election

Dollar firms on contagion risk and proposed tax cuts pre-election

The dollar generally trader higher amid a risk-off tone and falls in crude oil prices that weighed on NOK, AUD, NZD and CAD, as well as most EM currencies. US news flow offered plenty of engaging side plots yesterday. Lees Meer

Labour market data complicates UK macro picture even further

Labour market data complicates UK macro picture even further

The UK data picture is exceptionally murky currently, and today’s jobs figures only complicate things further. Last week saw expectations of rate cuts from the Bank of England soar after a weak GDP print, poor retail sales, and dovish comments from MPC members. Lees Meer

Markets return post-US holiday to a busy political schedule

Markets return post-US holiday to a busy political schedule

US markets were shut yesterday for Martin Luther King Jr day. The dollar spent much of the day in the green but ultimately ended up marginally lower upon closing. President Trump’s impeachment proceedings begin today under a rushed timetable outlined by US Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell in his four-page resolution late last night. Lees Meer

USDCAD outlook remains intact as trade deal remains on pause

USDCAD outlook remains intact as trade deal remains on pause

While the pair broke the psychological barrier in the early part of January due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and its ensuing impact on oil markets, USDCAD has since resumed trading above $1.30 leaving the base case intact. Lees Meer

A week of bad data and dovish MPC commentary builds expectations of rate cut

A week of bad data and dovish MPC commentary builds expectations of rate cut

Last week’s UK data and MPC commentary overwhelmingly pointed towards a rate cut from the Bank of England. Lees Meer

Data calendar set to drive FX volatility on Davos week

Data calendar set to drive FX volatility on Davos week

Leaders in business and politics will gather in Davos this week for the annual World Economic Forum. Unlike previous years which have featured much anticipated, watershed geo-political speeches from Trump and Xi Jinping, the focus this year will be on the environmental crisis. Lees Meer

South African Reserve Bank unexpectedly cuts rates

South African Reserve Bank unexpectedly cuts rates

The South African Reserve Bank unexpectedly cut rates yesterday alongside downgrades to both their CPI and growth projections from November’s forecasts. The central bank’s quarterly projection model now forecasts the repo rate to close out there year at 6.1%, suggesting another 25 basis point cut is soon to come in Q4. Lees Meer

Chinese economy stabilises as markets continue to digest “phase one”

Chinese economy stabilises as markets continue to digest “phase one”

The dollar traded in a tight range overnight, as markets continued to digest the implications of the US-China “phase one” trade deal. Equity markets took the news quite well, with the S&P 500 reaching a fresh all-time high. Lees Meer

CBRT cut rates but at a slower pace than 2019

CBRT cut rates but at a slower pace than 2019

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey cut rates today by 75 basis points as the cutting cycle continues but at a dramatically slower pace than in 2019. Today’s decision marked the smallest cut in policy rates under Governor Uysal since he was appointed governor in July. Lees Meer

Markets cheer US-China trade deal

Markets cheer US-China trade deal

The dollar mostly traded in right ranges last night after the US and China put pen to paper on a trade agreement in Washington, with the Kiwi and Aussie dollars enjoying some gains versus the greenback. Lees Meer

CPI undershoots emboldening dovish pricing

CPI undershoots emboldening dovish pricing

Sterling continues to trade on the back foot this morning as the growing flock of doves at the Bank of England gets their second piece of confirmatory data to suggest a rate cut at the end of the month may be a done deal. Lees Meer

US set to maintain tariffs until November election passes

US set to maintain tariffs until November election passes

People familiar with the Trump administration announced yesterday that the US are unlikely to reduce the pre-existing tariffs levied on China, until after the November election subject to the conditionalities of the phase one deal being met. Lees Meer

US removes currency manipulator designation from China

US removes currency manipulator designation from China

The US dollar traded mixed overnight, with CNY the biggest gainer after signs of progress emerged from US-China trade talks. It really does seem like white smoke is rising from Washington as the US and China are closing a phase one trade deal. Lees Meer

Sterling trades heavy as GDP data confirms BoE concerns

Sterling trades heavy as GDP data confirms BoE concerns

Following comments from Bank of England policy setter Vlieghe over the weekend, markets are beginning to turn their attention back to the economic data in anticipating whether the central bank will embark on a 25 basis point cut on January 30th.  Lees Meer

Sterling slumps as markets digest heightened rate cut probability

Sterling slumps as markets digest heightened rate cut probability

Sterling was firmly on the back foot last week after Bank of England policy makers began to come out in numbers in support for looser monetary policy. Gertjan Vlieghe, an external Monetary Policy Committee member said his on whether to lower rates by 25 basis points to 0.5% would depend on survey data released towards the end of the month. Lees Meer

US nonfarm payrolls to capture market’s attention today

US nonfarm payrolls to capture market’s attention today

Recent US-Iran tensions have somewhat eased in financial markets, despite headlines this morning suggesting that a Tehran missile could have been responsible for the Ukrainian plane crash last Wednesday. Lees Meer

EU-UK post-Brexit red lines are drawn ahead of final vote on the divorce deal

EU-UK post-Brexit red lines are drawn ahead of final vote on the divorce deal

The first face-to-face meeting between Prime Minister and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen captured the attention of investors, with rival red lines being set out for the post-Brexit era. Lees Meer

Iran retaliation on US forces has a short-lived market reaction

Iran retaliation on US forces has a short-lived market reaction

Iran hit US-Iraqi bases with more than a dozen missiles, as a response to an air strike last Friday that killed the top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani. The direct attack on American forces on the region risks further action from President Donald Trump, which tweeted “All is well” in the aftermath of these events. Lees Meer

Markets keep a cautious eye on geopolitical tensions

Markets keep a cautious eye on geopolitical tensions

Tensions continue to dominate the landscape of financial markets, with events ramping up from the killing of the Iranian military general Soleimani last Friday and the Iranian withdrawal of the 2015 nuclear deal on Sunday. Lees Meer

Geopolitical rumblings affect risk appetite

Geopolitical rumblings affect risk appetite

The dollar is marginally higher this morning as markets digest this weekend’s geopolitical events. The Iraqi Parliament voted to expel US troops, putting pressure on the incumbent government to draw up a timeline. However, Trump announced that the US would not withdraw until Iraq repaid the cost for a US built airbase. Lees Meer

Risk off move after US drone strike raises Middle East tensions

Risk off move after US drone strike raises Middle East tensions

Sterling price action has mostly been quiet so far this week, and this morning the pound has followed most of its peers lower against the US dollar on fears of rising risk of conflict in the Middle East. Lees Meer

Trump tweets a New Year’s gift to markets

Trump tweets a New Year’s gift to markets

The dollar has had a quiet start to the year, opening broadly unchanged against the most significant global currencies. The week’s data calendar resumes today, with Challenger job cuts released at 12:30 GMT. Lees Meer

Dollar closes 2020 on back foot, amid hints of white smoke from Beijing

Dollar closes 2020 on back foot, amid hints of white smoke from Beijing

The dollar weakened against most of its major currency peers yesterday, although the pace of the decline was not as dramatic as at the end of last week. Chinese state media reported that Vice Premier Liu He is set to lead a delegation to Washington this Saturday. Lees Meer

Soggy US dollar collapses

Soggy US dollar collapses

Sterling was among the biggest winners from last week’s broad US dollar weakness, and regained much of its recent losses since the general election. Lees Meer

USD soggy over the festive period

USD soggy over the festive period

The dollar has drifted broadly lower against G10 companions over the course of the week, but the move has less impact with many market participants away from their desk. Lees Meer

No Christmas cheer for sterling

No Christmas cheer for sterling

Holiday cheer and a lack of data releases were no barrier to further sterling losses yesterday, as the pound fell for a fifth straight day against the US dollar, its longest such streak since May. Lees Meer

Markets trade without guidance as festive period begins

Markets trade without guidance as festive period begins

The show must go on sings the single currency. The eurozone is one of the only economies to continue releasing data across the festive period. Today’s release saw a welcome increase in import inflation for the economy which currently prints inflation readings well below the ECB’s target. Lees Meer

Sterling continues to trade heavy as BoE show concern

Sterling continues to trade heavy as BoE show concern

Sterling continued to trade in vein yesterday, down 2.45% over the course of the week as of Thursday’s close, with the Bank of England striking a more dovish tone than previous while November’s retail sales data undershot expectations. The morning started fairly choppy for the pound. Lees Meer

Dollar softens as Trump is impeached by the House of Representatives

Dollar softens as Trump is impeached by the House of Representatives

The dollar is generally weaker this morning, after President Donald Trump was impeached by the House of Representatives, becoming the third president in history to face a trial in the Senate. The House voted to charge the President with using his office for personal gain, with the vote falling along party lines in the Democrat-controlled Assembly. Lees Meer

Trump set to be impeached but dollar remains firm

Trump set to be impeached but dollar remains firm

President Trump is set to become the third US President ever to become impeached today as the House of Representatives is set to vote on proceedings this evening. The House will vote on two articles of impeachment tonight. Lees Meer

Boris sets down red lines for trade

Boris sets down red lines for trade

After the election, some proposed the newly invigorated Prime Minister would use his 80 strong majority to force through a softer Brexit than previously proposed, with the political declaration under his version of the deal including a caveat to extend the transition period by 2 years if negotiations need more time. Lees Meer

Risk-on mood as political risk abates

Risk-on mood as political risk abates

The pound was the best performing G10 currency over the course of the last week, climbing 1.45% as clarity has arguably been restored into Westminster. Boris Johnson’s bid to break the Brexit deadlock proved successful and the Conservative party now holds a 75+ person majority in the House of Commons. Lees Meer

Sterling glimpses the sunlit uplands of a post-Brexit economy

Sterling glimpses the sunlit uplands of a post-Brexit economy

In a novel change for markets, this morning’s political developments have seen sterling climb up a cliff instead of falling off one. The pound shot higher by more than 2.5% in minutes last night after official exit polls showed the Conservative party with a commanding majority. Lees Meer

Phase one – done for both Brexit and the trade war

Phase one – done for both Brexit and the trade war

GBP In a novel change for markets, this morning’s political developments have seen sterling climb up a cliff instead of falling off one. The pound shot higher by more than 2.5% in minutes last night after official exit polls showed the Conservative party with a commanding majority. As actual constituency results confirmed that yesterday’s general […] Lees Meer

Game day for sterling with G10 central banks also in focus

Game day for sterling with G10 central banks also in focus

The UK electorate turns to the polls today after the Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson called a snap election to break the Brexit deadlock in Parliament. The pound has been trading in a subdued manner over the last 24-hours, with volatility expected to remain low until the exit poll is released at 22:00 GMT tonight. Lees Meer

Sterling Election Primer

Sterling Election Primer

Sterling looks set for yet another night of politically driven volatility as the UK essentially chooses between a massive Tory led fiscal expansion, and an even more massive Labour led fiscal expansion. Lees Meer

Deal sentiment drives multiple markets

Deal sentiment drives multiple markets

Sterling traded higher throughout the course of the trading day yesterday as markets were broadly helped higher from initial trade positive comments. Although the pound is less sensitive to broad market moves as a major idiosyncratic risk looms on Thursday, GBPUSD rallied over the course of the day. Lees Meer

Nerves steady across markets as US-China news awaited

Nerves steady across markets as US-China news awaited

The dollar continues to hover near a one month low by a number of broad measures this morning, as markets await the potentially seismic effects of this weekend’s scheduled imposition of further tariffs on consumer goods imported from China. Lees Meer

Markets trade tentatively ahead of Decembers tariffs

Markets trade tentatively ahead of Decembers tariffs

Sterling was by far the best performer against the US dollar last week, also reaching its highest level against the euro since 2017. This morning’s trading has seen the pound strengthen further after the weekend’s polls offered little reason to believe the Labour Party has gained enough momentum for voters to deliver a hung Parliament. Lees Meer

Dollar weakens as markets keep faith in trade deal

Dollar weakens as markets keep faith in trade deal

The dollar weakened in a broad sense yesterday, with the DXY index reaching fresh one month lows this morning. Today’s main data release will be the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report, at 13:30 GMT. Headline jobs growth is expected to pick up slightly from last month’s poor 128,000 figure. Lees Meer

Trade relief on US-China talks sends USD lower

Trade relief on US-China talks sends USD lower

Donald Trump appeared to leave this week’s NATO summit in London in something of a huff yesterday, after a camera caught Canadian PM Justin Trudeau and other leaders including Boris Johnson sharing a joke at Trump's expense. Lees Meer

Trade and geopolitics begin to revive FX volatility

Trade and geopolitics begin to revive FX volatility

The US has threatened to implement sanctions on French imports in retaliation for France’s Digital Services tax. As today’s formal NATO talks start today, any further rifts between the US and Europe will be under the spotlight. Lees Meer

Trade narrative turns ominous

Trade narrative turns ominous

Wilbur Ross said yesterday that if the right trade deal with China was not struck, the US would proceed with the imposition of further tariffs on December 15th, supposedly a good time to implement tariffs due to the date coming too close to Christmas to harm consumer spending. Lees Meer

Markets set to begin moving again on busy week of data and geopolitics

Markets set to begin moving again on busy week of data and geopolitics

This morning’s data has included Markit’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, which rose to 48.9 for last month, slightly better than expected but still indicating overall contraction in the sector. Lees Meer

No Chinese retaliation to Hong Kong Legislation…yet

No Chinese retaliation to Hong Kong Legislation…yet

Following the signing by Donald Trump of legislation aimed at supporting protests in Hong Kong, Chinese authorities have not announced any firm response, or released any official statements on how the legislation may affect trade talks. Lees Meer

Thanksgiving quiet disrupted by Hong Kong legislation in US

Thanksgiving quiet disrupted by Hong Kong legislation in US

The Thanksgiving holiday has not prevented the dollar and developments in the US from driving global markets this morning, after Donald Trump signed two bills aimed at supporting protests in Hong Kong. Lees Meer

Dollar trades mixed despite Trump’s upbeat tone on a deal

Dollar trades mixed despite Trump’s upbeat tone on a deal

Global markets are reminded yet again not to forget about the US-China trade war and the supposedly incoming phase one deal yesterday as President Donald Trump stated “we’re in the final throes of a very important deal” last night on Fox News. Lees Meer

Markets not fazed by fresh US-China headlines

Markets not fazed by fresh US-China headlines

The dollar is trading mixed today after fresh optimism over a trade deal ripples through markets. No significant moves have occurred just yet on any of the G10 crosses as markets have been burned before by the sharp reversal in both investor sentiment and Whitehouse commentary. Lees Meer

Deal or no-deal switches from Brexit to US-China

Deal or no-deal switches from Brexit to US-China

Trade headlines continue to be the dominating force with little value added in the FOMC meeting minutes released last week. The Fed remains in focus this week with Chairman Jerome Powell set to speak on Tuesday. Lees Meer

Markets trade on low volatility awaiting US-China headlines

Markets trade on low volatility awaiting US-China headlines

South Pacific currencies fell on fears US President Donald Trump will sign the Hong Kong bill, which could become a new impediment to a narrow trade deal being reached. Lees Meer

Fed minutes confirm a pause on rates but concern on corporate debt

Fed minutes confirm a pause on rates but concern on corporate debt

Trade optimism ebbed yesterday as trade experts and people close to the White House said the completion of a “phase one” US-China trade could slide into next year as Beijing presses for more extensive tariff rollbacks. Lees Meer

Sterling unfazed by leaders debate this morning

Sterling unfazed by leaders debate this morning

Sterling’s gains from Monday began to erode yesterday, with the losses extending this morning. Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn squared off in a television debate last night, exchanging barbs on the NHS, trust, and of course Brexit. Lees Meer

US dollar falls on Trump-Powell meeting a negative trade headlines

US dollar falls on Trump-Powell meeting a negative trade headlines

The dollar was lower yesterday after a rare meeting between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell. The meeting saw the policymakers discuss topics such as dollar strength and negative rates. Lees Meer

USDCAD may test $1.33 if core CPI undershoots

USDCAD may test $1.33 if core CPI undershoots

While markets remained in the dark about the possibility of a phase one trade deal being struck between the US and China, and the greenback traded mixed in such an environment, the loonie didn’t fare well in either scenario. Lees Meer

Dollar trades sideways

Dollar trades sideways

The US dollar traded with a mixed tone last week, with idiosyncratic reasons and changes in broad  risk appetite driving losses for AUD, KRW and MXN and gains for NZD, ZAR and GBP. Lees Meer

US Dollar blunted by trade optimism and poor manufacturing data

US Dollar blunted by trade optimism and poor manufacturing data

On Friday, US stocks rose to all-time highs as Treasuries ground lower following comments from Trump’s economic adviser Larry Kudlow, who said trade talks are coming to “short strokes”. Lees Meer

Dollar weakens as trade sentiment sours

Dollar weakens as trade sentiment sours

The dollar weakened across the board yesterday, posting gains against the Antipodean currencies only yesterday. The Japanese yen was the best performing G10 currencies yesterday as reports emerged that the US and China are struggling to finalise the first phase of the trade deal. Lees Meer

Can EURUSD avoid another sustained trip below 1.10?

Can EURUSD avoid another sustained trip below 1.10?

This morning’s German GDP beat may offer some support in the short term. The Eurozone’s largest economy was widely expected to have entered a technical recession in Q3. Lees Meer

Euro shrugs off German GDP data as growth problem not solved for ECB

Euro shrugs off German GDP data as growth problem not solved for ECB

The Eurozone’s largest economy was widely expected to have entered a technical recession in Q3, but stronger consumption and government expenditure offset a sharp downturn. Lees Meer

Muted G10 trading despite negative trade headlines

Muted G10 trading despite negative trade headlines

Price action was fairly muted in G10 FX again yesterday despite threats by President Trump to substantially raise tariffs on China. Lees Meer

Sterling rally on Farage electoral promise proves transitory

Sterling rally on Farage electoral promise proves transitory

Sterling rose sharply yesterday after Nigel Farage announced the Brexit Party would not be contesting Conservative Party seats won in 2017. Lees Meer

To cut or not to cut? Risks weigh on both sides for the RBNZ this week

To cut or not to cut? Risks weigh on both sides for the RBNZ this week

The RBNZ faces a finely balanced decision this week, with domestic data offering both positive and negative surprises. Lees Meer

Greenback trading lower against major trading partners post-Trump comments

Greenback trading lower against major trading partners post-Trump comments

After a strong week, the US dollar trades on the back foot this morning following comments from President Trump on Friday that has dampened optimism of a more substantial trade deal. Lees Meer

US-China headlines continues to dominate G10 FX

US-China headlines continues to dominate G10 FX

Sterling had an eventful day yesterday, weakening as the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee decided to keep rates unchanged in a split 7-2 decision, with the dissenters in favour of a rate cut. Lees Meer

G10 sat flat yesterday but US-China headlines set to drive risk rally today

G10 sat flat yesterday but US-China headlines set to drive risk rally today

Patience was the buzzword for yesterday’s G10 price action as investors enjoyed a slump in volatility after an intense period of Brexit headlines and Fed repricing due to Trade War developments. Lees Meer

USD waivers after two days of gains

USD waivers after two days of gains

The US dollar continued Monday’s rally yesterday as trade optimism continued. The greenback found an extra source of stimulus in the form of the ISM non-manufacturing index. Lees Meer

USD takes no prisoners after positive trade headlines

USD takes no prisoners after positive trade headlines

The US dollar DXY index rallied 0.3% yesterday, with the greenback making the most ground against the Scandies and Japanese yen. Lees Meer

US-China trade headlines lift NZD and AUD

US-China trade headlines lift NZD and AUD

After weakening on the whole last week the US dollar is enjoying a slight bid this morning against haven currencies such as CHF and JPY. Lees Meer

All eyes on US payrolls post-Fed

All eyes on US payrolls post-Fed

Following the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause the current period of cutting rates, dubbed as the mid-cycle adjustment, today’s Nonfarm Payroll data will have added impact. Lees Meer

G10 Views: AUD

G10 Views: AUD

Our view is that the Aussie will be broadly flat in Q4 as the RBA cuts rates once more and US-China tensions ease, but remain unresolved, creating persistent uncertainty. Lees Meer

G10 Views: EUR

G10 Views: EUR

Offsetting ECB and FOMC easing is likely to make for uninspiring EURUSD price action in Q4, although the more limited room for rate cuts by the ECB provides a minor source of strength for the euro. Lees Meer

G10 Views: USD

G10 Views: USD

The main theme of our updated G10 views is a moderately weaker US dollar, due to the US economy finally “catching down” to the rest of the G10. Lees Meer

VIDEO: Ranko Berich talks risks to the eurozone economy

Ranko Berich, Head of Market Analysis at Monex Europe, talks to Estrategias de inversion at the Madrid Stock Exchange about the greatest current risk to the eurozone economy… the US-China trade war. Lees Meer

Exuberant US consumer provides large fig leaf for falling investment

Exuberant US consumer provides large fig leaf for falling investment

Headline US GDP growth has printed at a better than expected 1.9% seasonally adjusted annualised rate. Lees Meer

Markets await guidance from key data and central bank announcements this afternoon

Markets await guidance from key data and central bank announcements this afternoon

G10 FX traded in a subdued range yesterday, as markets awaited today’s momentous US data and central bank decision. Lees Meer

Draghi hands ECB reigns to Lagarde

Draghi hands ECB reigns to Lagarde

Former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi spoke at an event marking the handover of the ECB Presidency to Christine Lagarde, using the occasion to call for fiscal policy loosening in the Eurozone. Lees Meer

A cut from the Fed, but no further dovishness?

A cut from the Fed, but no further dovishness?

The FOMC will almost certainly cut the Federal Funds rate by 25 basis points this Wednesday, but with markets pricing in a deeper pricing cycle than suggested by recent Fed communications. Lees Meer

Euro weakens after Draghi issues a stark warning

Euro weakens after Draghi issues a stark warning

Sterling fell victim to a stronger dollar yesterday along with the usual bombardment of Brexit headlines. Lees Meer

Whatever it takes – farewell Super Mario

Whatever it takes – farewell Super Mario

ECB President Mario Draghi takes to the stage for the last time this afternoon before handing over the keys to the office to former IMF chief Christine Lagarde. Markets are expecting no policy change from Draghi following September’s dramatic decisions. Lees Meer

Parliament block Johnson’s express delivery, cooling sterling’s jets

Parliament block Johnson’s express delivery, cooling sterling’s jets

The defeat on the timetable motion means the October 31st deadline will almost certainly be missed. The government has will likely vie down the route of an extension and a general election. Lees Meer

Thursday Central Banks

Thursday Central Banks

In September, we wrote a note about how inflation data in Sweden continues to nullify the Riksbank’s rate path projection, which forecast interest rates returning to 0% at the beginning of 2020. Lees Meer

Commons faces yet another “crunch vote”

Commons faces yet another “crunch vote”

Brexit newsflow was mercifully straightforward yesterday: House of Commons speaker John Bercow denied the Government’s attempts to force a second “meaningful” vote on Boris Johnson’s withdrawal deal. Lees Meer

Sterling hamstrung by drawn out Brexit process

Sterling hamstrung by drawn out Brexit process

Sterling starts the week marginally lower after Johnson’s deal suffers another blow. On Saturday, MPs sat in parliament on a weekend for the first time since the Falklands war, and voted for the Letwin amendment. Lees Meer

White smoke from Boris and Barnier lifts sterling

White smoke from Boris and Barnier lifts sterling

White smoke rose from Brussels and Monday yesterday as Boris Johnson and Michel Barnier announced that a deal for an orderly withdrawal from the EU had been reached. Lees Meer

El billete verde cede ante crecientes expectativas de recortes adicionales de la Fed

El billete verde cede ante crecientes expectativas de recortes adicionales de la Fed

El dólar estadounidense se debilitó ayer frente a sus contrapartes del G10 después de que los datos de ventas minoristas de septiembre sorprendieran a la baja. Lees Meer

Sterling climbs higher on positive deal sentiment

Sterling climbs higher on positive deal sentiment

Sterling took another leg higher yesterday as more positive headlines regarding a last-minute deal hit traders’ news feeds. Sterling rallied 1.5% against the US dollar which was notably the largest positive move in currency markets globally yesterday. Lees Meer

US-China phase one deal shows cracks prompting mild risk-off mood

US-China phase one deal shows cracks prompting mild risk-off mood

US-China trade sentiment turned negative, allowing the dollar to make some progress against the G10, especially against risk-sensitive currencies such as NZD, GBP, NOK and AUD. Lees Meer

Two deals in one day… was it Black Friday?

Two deals in one day… was it Black Friday?

The euro had a strong finish to last week, with two of its main rivals the dollar and sterling fell due to idiosyncratic factors. Sterling has largely held on to last week’s rally this morning, despite Brexit noise in the headlines turning mildly unfavourable over the weekend. Lees Meer

Q4 Forecast Update: Asia

Q4 Forecast Update: Asia

The APAC summit in mid-November is where a breakthrough, or even a narrow preliminary trade deal, may occur. Until then, we expect CNY to act as a buffer against tariffs, trading in the mid-point of the 7-7.20 range. Lees Meer

Q4 Forecast Update: LATAM

Q4 Forecast Update: LATAM

The Mexican peso faces considerable downside pressures from both domestic and external risks. The BCB have joined the heard of EM central banks cutting rates to spur on growth and inflationary pressures. Lees Meer

FOMC and ECB minutes show central banks divided and behind the curve

FOMC and ECB minutes show central banks divided and behind the curve

Last night’s meeting minutes painted a picture of an FOMC that was clearly behind the curve and attempting to work out how deep its current cutting cycle is likely to be, amid a darkening economic outlook. Lees Meer

USD stays strong despite Powell solidifying rate cut bet

USD stays strong despite Powell solidifying rate cut bet

The Federal Reserve will resume buying treasuries to ensure calm in the money market, Fed chair Jerome Powell stated yesterday, but hastened to add “this is not QE”. Lees Meer

China re-opens with a risk-on mood

China re-opens with a risk-on mood

As Chinese markets reopen this morning after a holiday celebrating the Communist parties 70-year anniversary, there is some semblance of a risk-on move in markets. Lees Meer

GBP Week Ahead

GBP Week Ahead

Boris Johnson finally presented the outline of his plan for a withdrawal agreement. The key question for the immediate future is if talks with the EU result in a withdrawal agreement that the Government is willing to present to parliament. Lees Meer

Under pressure ft Jerome Powell and the greenback

Under pressure ft Jerome Powell and the greenback

Soft survey data dominated FX market pricing last week following a substantial downturn in the US ISM manufacturing index on Tuesday. Lees Meer

US economy and trade talks in focus this week

US economy and trade talks in focus this week

Cracks finally began to show in the broad dollar strength seen recently over the course of the last week, with the greenback losing ground to most of the G10 currencies after a duo of poor domestic business surveys. Lees Meer

Greenback takes another leg lower on poor ISM reading

Greenback takes another leg lower on poor ISM reading

The greenback took another sharp leg lower yesterday following the non-manufacturing ISM PMI which followed the manufacturing reading on Tuesday is surprising to the downside. Lees Meer

Dollar plunges with ISM as growth fears re-emerge

Dollar plunges with ISM as growth fears re-emerge

The US dollar rolled over yesterday, selling off broadly as a crucial business survey crashed to its lowest level in a decade on Monday. Lees Meer

Canada’s economy stalls in July

Canada’s economy stalls in July

After trading in a remarkably tight range last week, USDCAD extends to the upside as data shows Canada’s economy didn’t expand in July. Lees Meer

ISM number puts USD under pressure as more Fed cuts eyed

ISM number puts USD under pressure as more Fed cuts eyed

Once regarded as one of the best indicators of the US economy by former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, the index fell to a decade low of 47.8. Lees Meer

Greenback firms on month/ quarter-end flows

Greenback firms on month/ quarter-end flows

The dollar was potentially buoyed by higher repo rates at the start of Monday’s session, but injections by the New York Fed soon brought the lending measure down. Lees Meer

G10 muted as dollar broadly weakens

G10 muted as dollar broadly weakens

The US dollar made broad inroads against the G10 currency board last weekend, suffering losses to the kiwi and Canadian dollar only. Lees Meer

Euro hits a 2-year low as fiscal stimulus measures announced

Euro hits a 2-year low as fiscal stimulus measures announced

This morning’s Eurozone data hasn’t helped the single currency as the bloc’s economic data continues to post negative surprises. This morning, inflation data from France and Germany has added to broad USD strength at the end of the quarter in pushing EURUSD to fresh 2-year lows. Lees Meer

Markets shift after USD surges on China optimism

Markets shift after USD surges on China optimism

The greenback’s strength was given further support by Trump’s statement saying a trade deal with China is getting “closer and closer” and there is a “good chance” it will get done. Lees Meer

A call to Ukraine puts impeachment on the table

A call to Ukraine puts impeachment on the table

Pelosi’s announcement that impeachment proceedings will begin came shortly after president Trump’s pledge to release a transcript of his call with president Zelenksy on the 25th July. Lees Meer

Sterling shrugs off supreme court as still a lot to play for

Sterling shrugs off supreme court as still a lot to play for

While it adds to the political excitement, today’s supreme court ruling gives very little in terms of certainty to the Brexit process. Lees Meer

Supreme Court ruling dominates sterling news flow

Supreme Court ruling dominates sterling news flow

All eyes will be on the Supreme Court today as they announce their verdict on the lawfulness of Parliament’s prorogation around 10:30 BST. Lees Meer

Euro kicked in the teeth as German economy contracts

Euro kicked in the teeth as German economy contracts

The euro has taken a major knock this morning, after the release of utterly dismal Flash Purchasing Managers Index data for Germany in September. Lees Meer

Sterling hits highs following Juncker optimism

Sterling hits highs following Juncker optimism

Sterling had a brief flurry of strength yesterday as reports emerged that European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker, said he is doing “everything” to prevent a no-deal exit. Lees Meer

Dollar firms as Fed under delivers on expectations

Dollar firms as Fed under delivers on expectations

The dollar reacted positively to yesterday’s rate cut from the Federal Open Market Committee, as the move was seen as hawkish when compared to very high market expectations for easing from the Fed. Lees Meer

Short-term USD liquidity dominated market focus yesterday

Short-term USD liquidity dominated market focus yesterday

Although one 25 basis point rate cut was universally expected well before this week’s drama, there is some risk of a larger 50 basis point cut, a pause in the Fed’s current reduction in its balance sheet, or a dovish revision in forward guidance. Lees Meer

US dollar continues to surge ahead of Fed

US dollar continues to surge ahead of Fed

The US dollar is back on the front foot after a relatively bad start to the week. The market’s focus will soon shift onto the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow. Forward guidance will be the key for the dollar as markets have already priced in another 25 basis point cut. Lees Meer

Oil rallies most since 1988 – markets await US supply response

Oil rallies most since 1988 – markets await US supply response

WTI crude is up 7.8% this morning with Brent touching the 10% mark after rallying some 20% at the open of Asian trading hours. Lees Meer

Draghi exits ECB with a bang as EURUSD climbs higher

Draghi exits ECB with a bang as EURUSD climbs higher

The euro had a wild ride yesterday, driven by adjusting fixed income markets following a historic last monetary policy meeting for President Mario Draghi of the European Central Bank. Lees Meer

EUR dips below 1.10 ahead of ECB decision

EUR dips below 1.10 ahead of ECB decision

Today is a historic day for the euro and the ECB, which is likely to restart its quantitative easing programme while also cutting interest rates. Today’s press conference at 13:30 BST will be Mario Draghi’s last as President. Lees Meer

Markets sit flat as Scandies lead sell-off

Markets sit flat as Scandies lead sell-off

The Scandies were the place to be in the G10 space yesterday as market volatility was subdued. Poor inflationary data from Sweden and reducing inflationary pressures in Norway sparked a Scandie led sell-off in the G10 space yesterday morning as expectations of Scandanavian rate hikes were put on ice. Lees Meer

Current EURJPY Strength Is Based On Market Risk Sentiment

Current EURJPY Strength Is Based On Market Risk Sentiment

EURJPY has been an interesting cross over the last few months as it accurately depicts the markets gauge of the US-China trade war and the resulting global growth story. Lees Meer

G10 mixed ahead of key rate decisions

G10 mixed ahead of key rate decisions

Sterling etched marginally higher against the US dollar yesterday as July’s GDP figures surprised to the upside with a reading of 0.3% MoM growth. Lees Meer

Draghi’s final ECB meeting dominates this week’s events

Draghi’s final ECB meeting dominates this week’s events

The euro’s fortune this week and beyond will, in large part, come down to the events of this Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting. Lees Meer

USD looks to jobs data amid fears of a recession

USD looks to jobs data amid fears of a recession

The US dollar held its head above the water yesterday with the help of the ADP employment report, which is a precursor to the NFP release Lees Meer

Sterling sits still in face of incoming election

Sterling sits still in face of incoming election

Boris suffered yet another round of blows last night in the House of Commons as MPs forced the PM to allow the Benn bill. Should this achieve royal assent Lees Meer

La libra indecisa sobre las siguientes jugadas de Boris Johnson

La libra indecisa sobre las siguientes jugadas de Boris Johnson

Los acontecimientos trascendentales de anoche en Westminster resultaron poco decisivos para la libra esterlina, que se recuperó de los mínimos de dos años Lees Meer

What tonight’s vote – and a general election – means for sterling

What tonight’s vote – and a general election – means for sterling

Elevated no deal risk is the overall driver of the current bout of sterling weakness, we estimate that the pound is likely to weaken by around a further 7% Lees Meer

Another “crunch” week for Brexit

Another “crunch” week for Brexit

Sterling has been weakening against the US dollar since last Wednesday, but this has been more a story of broad US dollar strength Lees Meer

King dollar still reigns

King dollar still reigns

Sterling sold off slightly against USD, and traded as flat as a pancake against the euro. The outlines of next week’s Parliamentary battles became clearer Lees Meer

Boris may have Labour work for him – sterling expects extra volatility

Boris may have Labour work for him – sterling expects extra volatility

Johnson has said MP’s will still have enough time to discuss Brexit, however, there may be little time left between the new opening of Parliament Lees Meer

This greenback ain’t scared by a little yield inversion

This greenback ain’t scared by a little yield inversion

Greenback surfed the wave of risk-off sentiment that continued to roll over markets yesterday, which had it end stronger against most G10 currencies Lees Meer

Dismal German data may reveal diamonds in the dirt

Dismal German data may reveal diamonds in the dirt

Monday morning brought a dismal German Ifo Business Climate Index that set the negative tone for the euro for the remainder of the day Lees Meer

EU hits ball into Boris’s court, sterling rallies

EU hits ball into Boris’s court, sterling rallies

Sterling surged to its highest levels of the month yesterday afternoon, as Merkel and Macron served a two layered cake of warm words Lees Meer

Sterling rises on hints of compromise

Sterling rises on hints of compromise

Sterling has rocketed to month highs against both EUR and USD after two days of meetings between Boris Johnson and the leaders of France and Germany Lees Meer

Would you like a glass of wine with that?

Would you like a glass of wine with that?

Sterling is trading lower this morning, glimmers of hope for a Brexit deal emerged from Berlin yesterday as Angela Merkel told Boris Johnson he had 30 days Lees Meer

Angela Merkel Takes Control of Sterling Price Action

Angela Merkel Takes Control of Sterling Price Action

German Chancellor Angela Merkel was in charge of sterling price action yesterday, as the pound rallied dramatically in the afternoon Lees Meer

Scent of Groundhog Day hangs over markets

Scent of Groundhog Day hangs over markets

Sterling is lower this morning, amid a renewed effort by Boris Johnson to convince EU leaders to cave to his demands that the Irish backstop is removed Lees Meer

With Johnson away, it’s Corbyn’s time to play

With Johnson away, it’s Corbyn’s time to play

Corbyn may be sneaking through the hallways of Westminster, attempting to forge an alliance that holds enough support to have a vote of no confidence Lees Meer

Red-hot US Retail sales sends challenge to ardent doves

Red-hot US Retail sales sends challenge to ardent doves

US equity markets defied the trend of losses in Asia and Europe yesterday, and the dollar traded with mixed results, strengthening against JPY and EUR Lees Meer

UK Consumers don’t give a fig about Brexit, but no-deal still hangs over sterling’s head

UK Consumers don’t give a fig about Brexit, but no-deal still hangs over sterling’s head

It would seem UK consumers still don’t give a fig about Brexit, and remain more than willing to spend their real wage increases Lees Meer

US yield curve crosses the rubicon

US yield curve crosses the rubicon

The risk-off mood swelled as the most important part of the US yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007 and USD dominated the G10 currency board Lees Meer

Only Brexit matters for Sterling

Only Brexit matters for Sterling

Sterling was unaffected by yesterday’s U-turn in global risk appetite, which saw emerging market currencies rally and havens such as JPY and CHF sell off Lees Meer

Cracking jobs report…when’s the BoE cutting again?

Cracking jobs report…when’s the BoE cutting again?

The UK labour market remains in cracking shape despite business investment grinding to a halt and growth turning negative in the second quarter Lees Meer

Sterling knocking on record lows

Sterling knocking on record lows

Sterling rose slightly from the multi-decade lows seen against the dollar and euro yesterday, with reports of a rebellion brewing in Parliament Lees Meer

Mexico’s Central Bank faces a complex trade-off ahead of Thursday’s monetary policy decision

Mexico’s Central Bank faces a complex trade-off ahead of Thursday’s monetary policy decision

The Mexican peso is exposed to downside pressures given the uncertain scenario, a restrictive stance of the monetary policy Lees Meer

PBOC puts Yuan into play for play for trade war, but signals continued management of bilateral USDCNY

PBOC puts Yuan into play for play for trade war, but signals continued management of bilateral USDCNY

The yuan is in play as a factor that Chinese authorities are willing to use in the event of further escalations in the US-China trade war Lees Meer

Sterling goes low as Brexit woes grow

Sterling goes low as Brexit woes grow

After a week of poor data and compounding Brexit woes, GBPUSD saw its lowest weekly close since 1985 last week, while GBPEUR has reached fresh decade lows Lees Meer

Political storm brews in the Med

Political storm brews in the Med

The announcement of fresh elections in Italy has put no pressure on the single currency thus far as fixed income markets take the beating. Two-year Italian government debt now carries positive yield again, rising dome 20 basis points on open this morning. Risk-off sentiment in the Eurozone has led to German 2-year bund yields falling to early-2017 lows. Lees Meer

Risk-off moves continue as recession indicators flash amber

Risk-off moves continue as recession indicators flash amber

Recession signals began to turn alarmingly amber, with the German bond curve reaching its flattest state since the 2008 recession. Lees Meer

RBNZ thinks big with 50bp cut in the face of US-China risk

RBNZ thinks big with 50bp cut in the face of US-China risk

The New Zealand dollar is down some 2.7% against the US dollar and suffered against its Australian counterpart, house prices are falling in NZ Lees Meer

China labelled currency manipulator, for all the wrong reasons

China labelled currency manipulator, for all the wrong reasons

The Chinese yuan has clawed back some of yesterday’s losses as the Peoples Bank of China outline their stance on the Rmb7.00 Lees Meer

Yuan breaks key psychological level as trade wars bite

Yuan breaks key psychological level as trade wars bite

The People’s Bank of China set a soft fix for the onshore yuan this morning which allowed the pressure of the offshore traded yuan to filter into local markets Lees Meer

CNY weakness brings risk back into market focus

CNY weakness brings risk back into market focus

Today, investors will be awaiting Donald Trump’s awakening to Twitter with the Chinese yuan breaking the 7.00 level. Market forces have driven a weaker yuan Lees Meer

Trump announcing tariffs on China could be a slippery slope

Trump announcing tariffs on China could be a slippery slope

Donald Trump added to the latest batch of market volatility yesterday by extending tariffs to cover all Chinese imports just hours after the Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook on rate cuts.  Lees Meer

Trade wars give Trump what he wants: a weaker dollar

Trade wars give Trump what he wants: a weaker dollar

The US dollar fell from the heavens (highs not seen since mid-2017) yesterday evening after Donald Trump announced an additional 10% tariffs Lees Meer

The first cut is the deepest (because none may follow)

The first cut is the deepest (because none may follow)

Sterling battled with the broad dollar strength yesterday but ultimately fell victim to a fresh round of pressure this morning Lees Meer

FOMC meeting promises to deliver monetary drama on prime time

FOMC meeting promises to deliver monetary drama on prime time

While Johnson toured the devolved nations, sterling had a trip itself but to climates further south. The pound carved fresh lows against the dollar Lees Meer

Sterling continues to hit fresh lows on no-deal prospects

Sterling continues to hit fresh lows on no-deal prospects

Every day is seemingly bringing fresh lows to sterling, with no definitive catalyst apart from the increased risk of a general election or a no-deal exit, especially with Boris Johnson and deputy Gove sending markets mixed messages. Lees Meer

It’s hard to see how the FOMC can live up to expectations with US data this good

It’s hard to see how the FOMC can live up to expectations with US data this good

As Powell, Williams and others have recently made clear, the FOMC is about to cut rates despite historic tightness in the labour market Lees Meer

Buying the sterling dip still requires nerves of steel

Buying the sterling dip still requires nerves of steel

Sterling hovered near two year lows last week, as Boris Johnson was installed as PM and confirmed that his strategy was to insist the EU reopen the Withdrawal Agreement. The EU duly refused. Notably, the confirmation of Boris and “do or die” by the 31st did not weaken sterling further. This suggests that a very […] Lees Meer

Stormy data calendar set to disturb Summer doldrums this week

Stormy data calendar set to disturb Summer doldrums this week

A fresh day brings fresh lows on sterling as the pound continues to get dragged into the doldrums with negative Brexit sentiment. Lees Meer

First Juncker-Boris call goes as well as you’d expect

First Juncker-Boris call goes as well as you’d expect

Sterling is back near its weekly lows against the US dollar this morning, after having its brief post-Boris rally cut short last night Lees Meer

Boris swings the axe and builds a Cabinet

Boris swings the axe and builds a Cabinet

Sterling enjoyed a small rally yesterday, as Boris Johnson assumed power and went through the process of sacking and appointing cabinet ministers Lees Meer

Muscle flexing and toolkit display prepares Mr. Draghi for his final day

Muscle flexing and toolkit display prepares Mr. Draghi for his final day

We expect Mario Draghi will start preparing for a dovish legacy by keeping all options open, reminiscent of his “whatever it takes” speech in 2014 Lees Meer

Boris’ rule keeps sterling cool

Boris’ rule keeps sterling cool

As expected Boris Johnson was announced as the winner of the Conservative Party leadership contest. The landslide victory of 66% Lees Meer

USD rally continues as White House and Democrats reach budget deal

USD rally continues as White House and Democrats reach budget deal

Sterling followed the rest of the G10 currencies lower against the US dollar yesterday, and has extended its losses this morning Lees Meer

Markets go for a leaner cut after Fed walks back dovish comments

Markets go for a leaner cut after Fed walks back dovish comments

The greenback topped the G10 board on Friday after the dovish comments of Federal Open Market Committee John Williams were walked back late Thursday night Lees Meer

USD volatile as New York Fed walks back its own CEO’s comments

USD volatile as New York Fed walks back its own CEO’s comments

Sterling has had an eventful week. After reaching fresh two year lows on Wednesday, the pound began to rally after some headline fodder from Michel Barnier and some superb Retail Sales figures. Since then, last night’s broad US dollar weakness has seen the pound extend its gains. Lees Meer

Sterling’s getting smoked like a kipper – Johnson remains optimistic

Sterling’s getting smoked like a kipper – Johnson remains optimistic

It was another day, another fresh low for sterling yesterday, as news headlines continue to serve a menu of Brexit pessimism Lees Meer

Sterling; shaken, stirred and pounded

Sterling; shaken, stirred and pounded

Sterling took yet another pounding yesterday, reaching its lowest level against the dollar since April 2017, as upbeat jobs data did nothing Lees Meer

Labour market data might work out recent sterling weakness

Labour market data might work out recent sterling weakness

Sterling pared back last week’s gains significantly yesterday, and is once again threatening to reach fresh lows against the US dollar Lees Meer

Even after last week’s two year lows, downside risk is far from priced for Sterling

Even after last week’s two year lows, downside risk is far from priced for Sterling

June’s Purchasing Managers indices set the stage for the latest bout of sterling weakness when they were released two weeks ago, showing the UK economy in contraction in the second quarter. Since then GBPUSD has reached its lowest level since April 2017. Given GBPUSD has fallen more than 13% from 2018’s highs to last week’s […] Lees Meer

SARB set to cut on Thursday but won’t do Ramaphosa’s dirty work on promoting growth

SARB set to cut on Thursday but won’t do Ramaphosa’s dirty work on promoting growth

The South African economy hasn’t shown signs of a vigorous rebound in activity following the largest economic contraction in a decade in the first quarter of 2019, with the latest data releases pointing to 0.5% GDP growth for the year. Lees Meer

Dollar faces further Fed speakers this week

Dollar faces further Fed speakers this week

The greenback was the weakest G10 FX performer on Friday and ended the week clinging to the bottom rung of the G10 currency ladder Lees Meer

Barry bolsters oil markets

Barry bolsters oil markets

Crude markets have rallied as tropical storm Barry is expected to hit Louisiana over the weekend, creating a high flooding risk as well as likely disruptions to oil and gas supply in the Gulf of Mexico Lees Meer

Powell sets July rate cuts in stone

Powell sets July rate cuts in stone

The dollar weakened yesterday after Jerome Powell confirmed that the Federal Reserve would almost certainly be cutting rates in the near future. Lees Meer

Game, set and match for sterling bears as currency hits fresh 2019 lows

Game, set and match for sterling bears as currency hits fresh 2019 lows

Sterling closed at a fresh 2019 low yesterday as the BRC Retail Sales Monitor highlighted that the Q2 slowdown is spread over multiple sections of the UK economy Lees Meer

Cracking cable ain’t a fable

Cracking cable ain’t a fable

Sterling cracks a fresh 2019 low this morning as the BRC Sales Monitor for June slashes one of the final legs of support for the UK economy - consumption. Lees Meer

Non-farm payrolls to Fed: are you sure you want to cut rates?

Non-farm payrolls to Fed: are you sure you want to cut rates?

Most of the dollar strength arrived on Friday as June’s NonFarm Payrolls highlighted the resilience of the US labour market with the economy adding 224,000 jobs Lees Meer

G10 currencies throw a pancake party

G10 currencies throw a pancake party

Sterling sat flat yesterday as the dollar mildly sold off, but failed to make any substantive gains as thoughts of an extensive Brexit related slowdown in the UK economy Lees Meer

Tread carefully as surveys indicate potential UK recession

Tread carefully as surveys indicate potential UK recession

Sterling had a bad day on the whole yesterday, reaching fresh lows against both USD and EUR after June’s Services Purchasing Managers Index was released in the morning. Lees Meer

UK GDP flirts with negative growth in Q2

UK GDP flirts with negative growth in Q2

Sterling was dragged down by yet another catastrophic PMI reading yesterday from the construction sector this time, building on the dismal manufacturing PMI on Monday. The catalysts; Brexit uncertainty and slowing external demand. The pound undoubtedly sold off on the release, but the biggest downturn could be yet to come. Lees Meer

Recession Fears Wake Euro Bears

Recession Fears Wake Euro Bears

The single currency got caught in the maelstrom of negativity that flowed from manufacturing survey data, which throughout the day eventually dragged EUR down towards the bottom of the G10 ranks. Together with swiftly waning inflation pressures, this indeed justifies further monetary easing by the European Central Bank, which confirms markets in their assessment there is currently a 76% chance of an ECB rate cut in September. Lees Meer

Trade truce struck; USD and EMFX throw a party

Trade truce struck; USD and EMFX throw a party

The greenback strengthened this morning after US President Trump announced “no further tariffs” on China indefinitely, which means a derailing of global trade, for now, won’t force the Federal Reserve into hasting into a cutting cycle. Lees Meer

Calm before G20 storm

Calm before G20 storm

This weekend’s G20 meeting certainly has the potential to shake up dollar pricing along with global markets Lees Meer

Roses are red, violets are blue, a no-deal Brexit, Boris won’t do

Roses are red, violets are blue, a no-deal Brexit, Boris won’t do

Further attempts to block a no-deal exit are set to be voted on Tuesday next week. Legislation proposed by Conservative Dominic Grieve and Labour’s Margaret Beckett aims to block off funding for Whitehall departments Lees Meer

Geopolitics in scope this week

Geopolitics in scope this week

Last week’s price action was dominated by speculation over global policy rates following a dovish turn by the Federal Reserve. While markets have increased their bets on how much the Fed will cut rates, with pricing currently suggesting 78 basis points by January 2020, this week’s geopolitical events are beginning to take the mantle in […] Lees Meer

Introducing, The Bullard Bounce

Introducing, The Bullard Bounce

The Bullard bounce: a retracement in the dollar due to comments from St. Louis chief James Bullard that pushed back expectations of an immediate 50 basis point July rate cut. Lees Meer

Traders drop dollar like a hot potato

Traders drop dollar like a hot potato

Traders have dropped the dollar like a hot potato over the course of the last five working days, with the dollar DXY index falling 1.75% against G10 counterparts. Lees Meer

USD nosedives as geopolitics comes into scope

USD nosedives as geopolitics comes into scope

Tensions between the US and China may find some relief this week with an “extended meeting” between President’s Trump and Xi expected to take place. Lees Meer

The Hunt is on, the dollar is down

The Hunt is on, the dollar is down

The US dollar fell to a three-month low overnight as traders added to their bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the coming periods. Lees Meer

False start from Powell in race to the bottom

False start from Powell in race to the bottom

It was a false start from Fed Governor Jerome Powell in the race with Mario Draghi to the bottom last night as the US central bank held rates at the current levels as they continue to monitor the incoming data. Lees Meer

Draghi’s dovish tune drives Trump mad and EURUSD lower

Draghi’s dovish tune drives Trump mad and EURUSD lower

Euro prospects later began to appear even bleaker as President Trump reacted to Draghi’s speech with a tweet in which he implicitly accused the ECB President of intentionally weakening the euro. Lees Meer

ZAR rallies after Draghi hints at policy easing

ZAR rallies after Draghi hints at policy easing

Despite global growth woes still prominent on investors’ minds, the prospects of lower interest rates and increased liquidity in the Eurozone prompted a surge into the rand and South African bonds this morning Lees Meer

Draghi’s legacy: letting the rate cutting geenie out of the bottle

Draghi’s legacy: letting the rate cutting geenie out of the bottle

A full ECB rate cut is now priced in by futures markets for 2019 after Draghi showed his concerns about the persistently low inflation in the Eurozone and the lingering risks to growth, especially stemming from weak manufacturing and export conditions. Lees Meer

China offloads more US Treasuries putting the dollar on the back foot

China offloads more US Treasuries putting the dollar on the back foot

The greenback continues to trade on the back foot this morning as news is released that China’s holdings of US Treasuries are at its lowest point in two years, sparking fears that the trade war may begin to move into fixed income markets. Lees Meer

Greenback tramples G10 currencies after red-hot Retail Sales

Greenback tramples G10 currencies after red-hot Retail Sales

Strong Retail Sales gave the greenback rampant momentum on Friday afternoon which led it to top the G10 currency for the day and added to the gains USD made earlier in the week. Lees Meer

Stuck in the mud sterling

Stuck in the mud sterling

GBP The pound continues to flat against the US dollar move as currency traders remain reluctant to move the needle given substantial political uncertainty remains. Yesterday saw 3 Tory leadership candidates exit the race at the first stage. Mark Harper, Commons Leader Andrea Leadsom, and Esther McVey were all knocked out following the first secret […] Lees Meer

Key FOMC preview

Key FOMC preview

As the FOMC blackout period rolls on, market participants continue to ask if the current Fed pricing is too aggressive as the dollar begins to trade in a tight range in the run-up to next week’s main event. Lees Meer

Westminster keeps no-deal on the table, prompting a slip in the pound

Westminster keeps no-deal on the table, prompting a slip in the pound

Sterling sat in the green for most of yesterday’s session until Parliament rejected Labour’s proposal to take control of the Parliamentary business motion at the end of the month Lees Meer

ECB speakers and US CPI put rate cuts in focus

ECB speakers and US CPI put rate cuts in focus

Today may be the day in which we find out as a long list of ECB doves take to the wires, with Draghi scheduled at around 09:15 BST. Lees Meer

Conditions in South Africa begin to look up

Conditions in South Africa begin to look up

The South African rand remains the worst performing EM currency month-to-date as Q1’s GDP release roiled investor nerves. However, with much of the sell-off in the rand attributed to souring foreign investor sentiment given last quarters deterioration in economic conditions, the rand may start to show signs of a sharp reversal if the economic data […] Lees Meer

Sterling battles with Brexit and deteriorating data

Sterling battles with Brexit and deteriorating data

Sterling fell in a dramatic fashion yesterday as April’s economic growth data showed the economy shrank by 0.4% on a monthly basis. Meanwhile in Brexit; 10 Tory MP’s have passed the first hurdle to make it into the leadership race Lees Meer

US dollar flails as investors mull a rate cut from the Fed

US dollar flails as investors mull a rate cut from the Fed

Friday saw the US dollar take on a heavy batch of water after a dismal Nonfarm Payroll release added to a significantly lower ADP release earlier on in the week. Lees Meer

Non-farms miss only partly validates expectations for dovish Fed

Non-farms miss only partly validates expectations for dovish Fed

Non-Farm payrolls missed expectations to print at +75,000 in May, far less than the 178,000 median forecast on Bloomberg. Revisions to previous months were net negative by 75,000. Average earnings were up 0.2%, compared to 0.2% monthly growth in May and up 3.1% year on year. On the surface, it certainly looks like there is […] Lees Meer

ECB hawks derailed and out of the picture

ECB hawks derailed and out of the picture

The euro saw some wild swings of volatility yesterday around the European Central Bank meeting as a hawkish rate statement was followed by moments of dovish reckoning during the press conference. Lees Meer

Dollar reverses rout following positive beige book release

Dollar reverses rout following positive beige book release

The US dollar held relatively firm following the dramatic sell-off over the last few days with the DXY index rising 0.2%. Yesterday saw the worst ADP employment reading since 2010 in the US Lees Meer

Loose lips make Fed expectations slip

Loose lips make Fed expectations slip

Dovish Federal Reserve rumbles sent the entire US yield curve down yesterday, which, led by moves at the front-end of the curve, eventually dragged the dollar down in the mud. Lees Meer

Bets on Fed rate cuts tank greenback

Bets on Fed rate cuts tank greenback

The greenback experienced a good old fashioned hammering yesterday after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard was the first voting Federal Open Market Committee member who explicitly hinted at the need for Fed rate cuts on the short run. Lees Meer

Weak German inflation derails ECB’s tightening intentions

Weak German inflation derails ECB’s tightening intentions

The single currency clawed back some losses on EURUSD after four consecutive days of decline, despite weak German inflation. This week US President Donald Trump is visiting the UK, but developments in the Conservative Party leadership contest will likely be the main driver of sterling price action this week. Lees Meer

Trump’s tariff threats weigh on MXN fortune

Trump’s tariff threats weigh on MXN fortune

The Mexican peso opened the European session at its worst levels of the year against the dollar, following the announcement by Donald Trump on a round of progressive tariffs from 5% to 25%, to take effect between June 10th and October 1st, until the Mexican authorities "stop" illegal immigration at the border. Lees Meer

Trump Mexican tariff Tweets boost greenback

Trump Mexican tariff Tweets boost greenback

The greenback remains resilient amidst President Trump’s unsatiable need for confrontation on the geopolitical stage after he announced a plan to increase tariffs on Mexican exports as long as immigrants continue to flow into the US through Mexico. Lees Meer

G10 still struggling against USD

G10 still struggling against USD

Sterling weakened further against the US dollar yesterday, and has reached a fresh low for the month this morning after Phillip Hammond spoke out against a no-deal Brexit Lees Meer

US dollar sucks in foreign capital as US treasuries surge

US dollar sucks in foreign capital as US treasuries surge

Investors continue their search for yield in a challenging global climate, which has seen the dollar sustain recent gains of late. Lees Meer

Graham Brady shows May the door

Graham Brady shows May the door

Theresa May is set to announce her formal resignation today according to nearly all political commentators. The PM will retain her position until June 10th in order to host the visit from US President Donald Trump on June 3rd. Lees Meer

What next for May and Sterling?

What next for May and Sterling?

Following the latest failure of her withdrawal agreement, Theresa May’s premiership is over in any meaningful sense.  The only question is when she will finally announce her resignation, and what tone the race to replace her takes? Lees Meer

May and sterling reluctant to move as the 1922 circles

May and sterling reluctant to move as the 1922 circles

In the afternoon of yesterday’s session, sterling stood still as political headlines came thick and fast with speculation rife that May would announce her retirement that evening amid significant pressure from senior party officials. Lees Meer

To Brexit or not to Brexit, that is the question

To Brexit or not to Brexit, that is the question

Yesterday, Theresa May pinned her hopes on increasing votes in favour of the Withdrawal Bill from Labour, as opposed to votes from within her own Tory party, ahead of the vote in 2-weeks’ time. Lees Meer

China accuses US of making wrong call on Huawei

China accuses US of making wrong call on Huawei

This morning it became clear President Trump has signed a waiver to postpone the sanctions against Chinese technology company Huawei for three months. The market reaction of this potential first step towards atonement is muted, however, as the measures are still to be implemented later. Lees Meer

Sterling falls off the Boris Cliff once again

Sterling falls off the Boris Cliff once again

Friday’s collapse of talks between Labour and May confirmed what markets had been progressively pricing in last week: that May’s final attempt at passing her withdrawal agreement in Parliament was likely to end in failure and resignation. The two key things to watch this week will be how the chances of May’s deal evolve, and the tone of the simmering battle to replace her. Lees Meer

May likely to be gone in June

May likely to be gone in June

Unless May manages to achieve some type of breakthrough in the near future, a likely Conservative Party revolt would see her ousted and replaced, possibly by a Eurosceptic such as Boris Johnson - a prospect that would likely see further sterling weakness due to the increased chances of a no-deal Brexit in October. Lees Meer

Euro and sterling face political headwinds

Euro and sterling face political headwinds

There seems to be no winner in current British politics, but there definitely is one loser - the pound. GBPUSD falls for the sixth consecutive trading day and now sits at levels not seen since mid-February. Lees Meer

Chinese dragon breathes out sparks, but doesn’t spit fire yet

Chinese dragon breathes out sparks, but doesn’t spit fire yet

This can be the synopsis of China’s largest sell-off of US treasury paper in two years in March, as it remains tiny compared to China’s total UST holdings, while even Canada sold more USTs that month. Lees Meer

Sterling pushes towards a 3-month low as May’s tenure looks set to end

Sterling pushes towards a 3-month low as May’s tenure looks set to end

News from Westminster that the Withdrawal Agreement will be put to a vote in the Commons at the beginning of June has brought the Brexit headache back for those investing in British assets. The game of picking the likeliest Brexit outcome has re-emerged, however, this time around market sentiment has deteriorated substantially. With the withdrawal […] Lees Meer

EURUSD nears $1.10 level

EURUSD nears $1.10 level

The recent response by the single currency is the complete opposite to that seen last year in April and May when a surge in global trade uncertainty had the euro quickly sink below the $1.20 level. This time it’s different for the euro, which suggests the currency may be close to a bottom on EURUSD. Lees Meer

May goes back for a fourth serving

May goes back for a fourth serving

Sterling continues to sit on the back foot as a G10 currency against the dollar in a mild risk-off environment. Now, Theresa May will hold out for cross-party talks to bear fruit in order to secure much needed Labour votes ahead of the WA’s fourth running. Lees Meer

Bitcoin-Altcoin Spread Suggests different dynamic to previous Crypto Booms

Bitcoin-Altcoin Spread Suggests different dynamic to previous Crypto Booms

Bitcoin is on a tear this week, having strengthened by almost 40% against the US dollar since Friday. Lees Meer

FX drift on the tides of trade sentiment

FX drift on the tides of trade sentiment

Sterling was stuck in the middle of the G10 currency board yesterday as a lack of data released along with a stagnant Brexit process meant the pound followed suit against the US dollar move. Lees Meer

Banxico on hold as risks worsen

Banxico on hold as risks worsen

The trade impasse threatens Mexican growth prospects via lower external demand from the US, which accounts for 80% of Mexican exports. Lees Meer

Car tariffs may nip Eurozone green shoots in the bud

Car tariffs may nip Eurozone green shoots in the bud

This week brings new updates on the green shoots in the Eurozone, with the German ZEW Economic Sentiment on Tuesday and the vital First Gross Domestic Product reading for Germany on Wednesday. Lees Meer

Ramaphosa euphoria sweeps SA markets

Ramaphosa euphoria sweeps SA markets

With 85% of the vote counted thus far, President Ramaphosa is likely to retain office for his first full 5-year stretch. Lees Meer

G10 FX takes tariff increases in its stride

G10 FX takes tariff increases in its stride

Sterling has unwound all of last Friday’s Brexit optimism with the pound paring back 0.7% this week so far against the US dollar. On the face of it, the Brexit riddled coinage has fared relatively well compared to its G10 compatriots as trade tensions resurface. Lees Meer

US-China: The calm before the storm

US-China: The calm before the storm

With such an important global macro event taking place in Washington today, FX markets float in limbo as the possibility of the trade war resurfacing remains ever-present. Lees Meer

US-China dialogue opens as G10 trades in a tight range

US-China dialogue opens as G10 trades in a tight range

he US dollar has traded in an increasingly tight range since the announcement of potential further tariffs on Sunday, as measured by the broad dollar DXY index. Lees Meer

Wonders on Anfield, worries in Westminster

Wonders on Anfield, worries in Westminster

Theresa May continues to battle to leave Europe, whereas Liverpool kept one foot firmly in the continent after last night’s historic performance. Lees Meer

Shifting tectonic Brexit plates shake up sterling

Shifting tectonic Brexit plates shake up sterling

The pound continues to trade in flux after Friday’s surge in Brexit optimism following a hammer blow for the Conservative party in local elections, whilst PM May is under revived pressure from the backbench 1922 committee. Lees Meer

Trump’s unsurprising surprises for China

GBP Optimism on a Brexit compromise led sterling to the top of the board on Friday, after a damning election result drove the Conservative and the Labour Party straight into each other’s arms. Theresa May continued to drop hints she may be willing to compromise on some form of customs union with the European bloc. […] Lees Meer

South African election preview

South African election preview

South African elections are set to take place on Wednesday 8th May, with the results expected within 48 hours of polls closing. That being said, most polling stations report results within 24 hours so the market reaction will likely occur on Friday. Lees Meer

G10 and EM sell-off post FOMC

G10 and EM sell-off post FOMC

Sterling stopped just short of 5 consecutive days trading in the green yesterday as the dollar reigned supreme and took the pound as one of many victims. Even an optimistic Bank of England failed to stem the pound's losses with Governor Carney painting an positive picture of growth and promised future rate hikes - once Brexit is wrapped up of course. Lees Meer

Resistance to crude upside looks firm despite supply shocks

Resistance to crude upside looks firm despite supply shocks

Green sprouts appearing through dark soil has become the narrative in FX markets this quarter as global headwinds begin to ease. However, after the strong correction in Q1, the same cannot be said for oil markets as the rally begins to peter out. Lees Meer

Lingering spirit Janet Yellen reveals Fed optimism

Lingering spirit Janet Yellen reveals Fed optimism

USD The lingering spirit of former Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen may have stirred current Fed chair Jerome Powell to use the words “transitory factors” when explaining the unexpected fall in core inflation since December. As this shows the confidence of the Fed that inflation will rebound coming months, which justifies a tighter monetary policy, […] Lees Meer

Eurozone growth laughs in the face of pessimistic surveys

Eurozone growth laughs in the face of pessimistic surveys

The single currency had a stellar day yesterday after both Q1 Flash Gross Domestic Product growth and German Inflation figures left expectations behind them in the dust. Lees Meer

Fortunes turn for Eurozone data

Fortunes turn for Eurozone data

The euro seems to have weathered the storm, for now anyway, after it pounced on a softening US dollar yesterday. This morning’s data releases bode well for the single currency. Lees Meer

Dollar rally in focus ahead of busy data week

Dollar rally in focus ahead of busy data week

The dollar took a breather on Friday, having reached fresh 2019 highs against most major currencies and on indices such as DXY. Friday’s first-quarter GDP data came in well above expectations. Lees Meer

USD still on top heading into crucial Q1 GDP print

USD still on top heading into crucial Q1 GDP print

The dollar remained dominant yesterday, reaching a fresh 23 month high as measured by the DXY index. Yesterday’s data was firm, with Durable Goods rising a solid 0.4% and Unemployment Claims rising slightly to 230,000 for the week Lees Meer

If cash is king, the dollar reigns supreme

If cash is king, the dollar reigns supreme

The US dollar surged yet again yesterday after dovish central bank meetings in Australia and Canada reignited growth concerns and sparked a risk-off move in currency markets. Lees Meer

Ifo business survey: Schade Deutschland!

Ifo business survey: Schade Deutschland!

The German Ifo business climate brought sobering news, as it signals that a German economic rebound in the rest of the year remains far from certain, while downside risks prove frustratingly persistent. Lees Meer

USD rises to 17-month high ahead of Golden Week holidays

USD rises to 17-month high ahead of Golden Week holidays

USD Together with JPY, USD topped the G10 currency board yesterday, which send the DXY dollar index to the highest point since June 2017. The move appeared to be led by flows into US equity and treasury markets, which also sent the S&P500 to new all-time highs while solid demand for a 2-year treasury auction […] Lees Meer

European markets walk back in to higher oil prices

European markets walk back in to higher oil prices

European markets reopen today with financial markets being rebooting by fresh liquidity. Yesterday saw the US dollar trade mixed against the G10 currencies, making the most ground against AUD and losing out to the Canadian dollar, with oil prices taking the market headlines. Lees Meer

Euro takes a dive on German Manufacturing Recession

Euro takes a dive on German Manufacturing Recession

The euro is under pressure again this morning after a dismal print for Germany’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. Lees Meer

Green shoots in Eurozone economy lend hand to EUR

Green shoots in Eurozone economy lend hand to EUR

The single currency weakened against USD yesterday, but is on the offensive again this morning and continues to trade towards the upper bound of last month’s trading range. Lees Meer

US barters for Chinese goodwill

US barters for Chinese goodwill

The US and China trade negotiations continue to proceed with some goodwill towards the Trump administration showing from the Chinese camp. The US may be unwilling to lift tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods Lees Meer

Trade tensions and global growth back in focus this week

Trade tensions and global growth back in focus this week

The UK economy has fared well thus far despite Brexit uncertainty tarnishing business investment, rendering economic data redundant in moving sterling. Lees Meer

Brexit follies and the masters of procrastination

Brexit follies and the masters of procrastination

The whole nation takes a sigh of relief as yet another no-deal exit is avoided and Parliament breaks up for over a week. Cross-party talks will continue in the background despite the MPs Easter holiday as the government tries to avoid an expensive, and potentially messy, European election. Lees Meer

Brussels gets flexible

Brussels gets flexible

Another 6-months is scheduled in the Brexit timetable with a review period in June. President Donald Tusk urges Brits to not waste this time in his speech last night while reiterating the Withdrawal Agreement was not up for renegotiation. Lees Meer

3-course meal of ECB, Fed and Brexit is on today’s menu

3-course meal of ECB, Fed and Brexit is on today’s menu

It’s that time again for another awkward dinner party with Theresa May as the guest speaker. At around 17:30 BST, the EU-27 leaders will hear May’s latest plans before asking her to leave. Lees Meer

Weaker Factory Orders may drive US to trade negotiation table

Weaker Factory Orders may drive US to trade negotiation table

Factory Orders were negative yesterday for the fourth time in five months at -0.5%, showing the US industrial sector may not be immune to the woes that plague the Eurozone’s and China’s manufacturing sector. Lees Meer

Dense data could breathe life into G10 FX this week

Dense data could breathe life into G10 FX this week

This week the data calendar is focused around Wednesday’s release of February’s GDP and production data. The UK economy is widely expected to halt its month-on-month growth in February as suggested by the latest batch of PMIs due to Brexit uncertainty taking its toll. Lees Meer

ECB Eurozone outlook not so bubbly

ECB Eurozone outlook not so bubbly

The European Central Bank Meeting Accounts that came out yesterday were dovish as can be, yet, as expectations for the Eurozone economy are currently near all-time lows, it didn’t move the needle much on euro crosses. Lees Meer

Another A50 extension likely

Another A50 extension likely

Sterling briefly jumped on the news, but with the economy showing signs of faltering due to Brexit uncertainty, little relief came for the pound. Lees Meer

Double-edged sword for Labour

Double-edged sword for Labour

Corbyn must proceed with caution as the consequences of his next action could be dramatic. Many political pundits have raised concerns over last night’s move by Theresa May as a precursor to a general election. Lees Meer

Chinese manufacturing data fuels risk rally

Chinese manufacturing data fuels risk rally

A strong positive surprise in China’s April manufacturing PMI yesterday morning set the tone for the session as investors appetite for risk rose once again. The rebound in the soft data saw China’s manufacturing sector expand for the first time this year, soothing fears over the global growth slowdown. Lees Meer

1011 days of Brexit – April fools!

1011 days of Brexit – April fools!

April fool’s day makes it difficult to filter reality and fiction in the media, especially when it comes to Brexit. But here’s what we know so far: April 12 is the new deadline, Parliament will have another series of indicative votes tonight and May will likely have another stab at getting her deal through this week. Lees Meer

Brexit day proves pivotal despite extension to April

Brexit day proves pivotal despite extension to April

What should have been Brexit day has now become a power play for May as she tries one last time to whip up some more Parliamentary fudge to help kick the can down the road. An EU deadline to pass a deal and trigger a further six-week extension to May 22 expires tonight. Lees Meer

Come on Arlene, poor old Mrs May

Come on Arlene, poor old Mrs May

Boris Johnson, Iain Duncan-Smith and Jacob Rees-Mogg all aired their support for the deal after May offered to step down should the UK leave with a deal in place at the next deadline. May’s job looks done as the beast that is Brexit takes another Prime Minister prematurely. Lees Meer

Did Friday mark the end of 2019’s EM rally?

Did Friday mark the end of 2019’s EM rally?

Developments in Turkey prior to Sunday’s local elections, LATAM’s potential rebound and Moody’s credit rating on Friday will set the tone for this week’s response. Lees Meer

Another long night in Westminster

Another long night in Westminster

At around 19:00 GMT today, MPs will begin to vote on a series of indicative votes to break the Brexit impasse after lawmakers take control of the Commons business paper, with the results expected at around 21:00 GMT. Lees Meer

33 MPs cause another historic government defeat

33 MPs cause another historic government defeat

33. That’s the number of Tory rebels that voted for the historic Letwin amendment, with 3 ministers having to resign due to defying the party whip. Lees Meer

Egregious Eurozone sentiments spook world markets

Egregious Eurozone sentiments spook world markets

The euro took the disastrous Purchasing Manufacturing data on the chin on Friday and fell as much as a full percent against the greenback, and even more against JPY and GBP. Lees Meer

Mo Brexit, Mo Problems

Mo Brexit, Mo Problems

Fortnight. No, not the hit game millennials flocked to play. It is how long the EU leaders gave May to avoid a hard Brexit next Friday. It was decided last night after a horrendously long meeting that the EU would extend the Brexit deadline until April 12. Lees Meer

Quelle Surprise by Powell and Co

Quelle Surprise by Powell and Co

Another dovish turn by the Federal Reserve last night sent the dollar plummeting across the board with the broad DXY index falling 0.66%. The revised forward guidance measure showed 11 out of 17 Fed officials are not planning on raising rates at all in 2019, down from the market's assumption of one 25 basis point hike this year. Lees Meer

EM Currencies Rally in Muted G10 Market

EM Currencies Rally in Muted G10 Market

Emerging Markets rallied against the US dollar as a whole yesterday as markets anticipate further dovish tones from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Lees Meer

Brexit may be wrapped up this week, but it looks unlikely

Brexit may be wrapped up this week, but it looks unlikely

Sterling gears up for yet another pivotal Brexit week. The next 5 days determine whether we leave the EU with a deal in place in the next month or whether a longer delay to Article 50 will be imposed. Lees Meer

Third Time Lucky For May

Third Time Lucky For May

If a deal is pushed through next week in a third meaningful vote, May will request a short extension to A50 such that the legal framework of her deal can be finalised. This would undoubtedly be the best case for sterling now as it awaits the signal to push back towards fair value. Lees Meer

Deadline day for May

Deadline day for May

Investors will be weighing up the likelihood of a deal being struck as Parliament battles in the House of Commons and Brexit noise increases. The pound is likely to be highly volatile today as the Brexit headlines come thick and fast prior to tonight’s vote at around 19:30 GMT. Lees Meer

Finally, some progress on Brexit?

Now don’t hold your breath, but there is a slim possibility Brexit could be wrapped up in the next few days. But who are we kidding? Not the market it seems, which remains adamant that this week’s indicative votes will lead to a minor extension of roughly 2 months in Article 50. Lees Meer

Dovish BoC paves way for today’s ECB

Sterling continues to gear up for a volatile session next week without any significant data releases this week. Market participants’ attention is firmly on the three major events, the first of which, the meaningful vote, took another blow overnight as scepticism on forthcoming concessions from the EU hit the daily newspapers. Lees Meer

Eurozone domestic demand may provide an olive branch for ECB doves tomorrow

The single currency couldn’t match the level of play from the Ajax vs Real Madrid game and ended up in the bottom half of the G10 currency pack, despite hopeful signs from the domestic demand side of the Eurozone economy. Both January Retail Sales and the February Final Services Purchasing Manager Index outstripped the forecasts, lending some tentative support to the thesis that consumers and domestic demand may take the ailing Eurozone economy by the hand. Lees Meer

CNY Shrugs off Growth Downgrade

GBP Sterling pared back some of its recent gains yesterday, especially against the US dollar. Brexit will once again be back in focus today as Attorney General Geoffrey Cox will head to Brussels with Brexit Secretary du jour Stephen Barclay in a last ditch attempt to gain further concessions on the Irish backstop. Members of […] Lees Meer

May returns to magic money tree to buy a Brexit deal

Sterling starts the week on the front foot after Theresa May nips to the money tree that bought her a coalition government in an attempt to buy a Brexit deal. The £1.6bn “stronger towns” fund looks designed to swing Labour MP’s from Brexit support towns to vote for the current deal in next week’s second meaningful vote. Lees Meer

Fed’s move of caution may look overly bold after resilient US Q4 GDP surprise

The GDP Price Index rebounded to a 1.7% quarterly, reversing the downward trend it had shown since the second quarter of the year. However, the real question may be whether this push will continue in the start of 2019, when the global slowdown and the longest-ever government shutdown might have filtered deeper into the economy. Meanwhile, the US dollar also received some support from Asian markets, where the stalled conversations between Donald Trump and North-Korean Kim Jong Un on denuclearisation, triggered some fears on Asian equities; a risk-off move that led to further haven flows into the dollar Lees Meer

May’s dismay and sterling’s joy as amendments pass Parliament

Last night’s amendments saw May’s promises to host votes on a no-deal scenario and an extension in Article 50, should her second meaningful vote attempt fail, become legally binding. Meanwhile, Jeremy Corbyn announced Labour’s official stance to back a referendum should the meaningful vote fail. Lees Meer

May retreats, but sterling doesn’t

Today, after Prime Ministerial questions at 12 p.m. the House of Commons vote on a whopping 12 backbench amendments, which include the original Cooper amendment that sought an extension in Article 50 and a fresh amendment by Spelman and Dromey which could give Parliament control a week after the meaningful vote deadline. This is what May tried to avoid, and with plenty of cross-party backing, could untangle much of May’s work yesterday. Lees Meer

No-deal shakes sterling

No-deal shakes sterling

Theresa May tries to maintain control of the Brexit process and face down the Cooper amendment, but threats of a no-deal bursts sterling’s bubble. Lees Meer

Talk about movin’ – both May and Corbyn forced to sterling positive concessions

This morning, sterling hit a fresh 4-week high after news broke that PM May will brief cabinet on an extension in Article 50 before addressing Parliament to outline the “progress” that has been made at mid-day. This could well see a vote in the House of Commons, should the next meaningful vote fail, to decide on an extension in Article 50 or a hard-Brexit scenario. Lees Meer

Stalling May gives sterling a break

The degree to which Theresa May is running down the clock would definitely be worth a yellow card in football now she most likely needs to seek a 2-month extension. Although, for now, the only consequence is a higher trading pound sterling. GBP is currently taking this news positively as it would diminish the chance of the UK crashing out of the European Union on the 29th of March. Lees Meer

Option markets turn optimistic on sterling prospects

Sterling continues to float in anticipation of the next Brexit headline. With little changes thus far, Prime Minister Theresa May has until Wednesday to realistically strike concessions on the Irish backstop before facing a possible revolt in Parliament. Maintaining the topic of revolts, this morning Jeremy Corbyn was told to back a second referendum over May’s deal or face further defectors to The Independent Group. Lees Meer

Fed rate hike binary – 0 or 1 in 2019.

Continued uncertainty over future interest rate hikes keeps being aired from Fed officials while balance sheet run-off looks set to end in 2019. Regardless, the market reaction seems fairly muted as investors have already had time to adjust their expectations towards further monetary policy accommodation. Lees Meer

Recent rumours keep lifting sterling higher and higher

Rumours of European Union concessions combined with building anticipation that the UK Parliament will take the necessary steps to prevent a hard Brexit from happening was enough to send sterling to multi-week highs against USD and EUR yesterday. Political editors of several UK newspapers postulated on Twitter yesterday that concessions of the EU on the Irish backstop order may be imminent, which could potentially make Theresa May’s Brexit deal palatable enough to cruise through Parliament at the next vote Lees Meer

Baby you can drive my car – off a cliff-edge Brexit it seems

Meanwhile, Honda announced it would shut down a major production facility in Swindon after Nissan declared earlier this month that Brexit uncertainty was one of the main reasons not to produce their next generation SUV in the UK. This is an indicator that some of the damage the Brexit uncertainty has done may not be easily reversed, which could limit the upside for a sterling rally in the case we eventually would see a Brexit deal. Lees Meer

Flock of ECB doves flying over throws a shadow on EUR

On Friday, the euro dipped to a fresh three-month low against the dollar on the back of strong US manufacturing data and European Central Bank dovish tones. Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau scared markets by stressing the significance of the European slowdown while comments from ECB´s Benoit Coeure increased expectations of further quantitative easing, should the economic weakness in the Eurozone not prove as temporary as initially asserted. Lees Meer

Call 911, its a state of Emergency.

A White House spokesperson announced that the US President will be signing the bipartisan agreement on immigration and border policies to avoid a second government shutdown on Friday, while also declaring a state of national emergency on the humanitarian crisis at the border. Such a move will allow Donald Trump to bypass Congress and secure more funds for the border wall than was previously allocated by the budget bill, setting the tones for further tensions in US politics. Lees Meer

That’s not me, say’s Trump, and it’s shutdown

Sterling fended off another negative data surprise yesterday after the Bank of England’s favoured inflation measure, the Consumer Price Index, fell below the 2% target for the first time in 48 months, but then conceded to a swathe of dollar strength in the afternoon. Lees Meer

It’s the final shutdown!

GBP Sterling strengthened against USD like most of its peers yesterday, but was towards the bottom of the group of G10 currencies. No headline data was released, but Bank of England Governor Mark Carney gave a speech where he discussed the increasingly murky outlook for the global economy, which he concluded was likely to continue […] Lees Meer

Euro got low, low, low, low

GBP Yesterday, sterling lost some ground against the dollar on a day where some economist emitted a sigh of relieve as macro data once again dominated over Brexit headlines. Growth data showed the UK economy shrank in December by 0.4% on a monthly basis, pointing to a preliminary quarterly slowdown of 0.2% from 0.3% expected […] Lees Meer

Whatever happens to trade, the dollar keeps on rolling, rolling, rolling.

Sterling gears up for another week of Brexit after broadly selling-off last week. The pound remains quite some distance from its 6-month high against the US dollar after weak Purchasing Managers Indices on Tuesday morning. The Bank of England’s net-hawkish meeting on Thursday proved insufficient in clawing back prior losses and the pound ultimately ended the week a percentage point lower against its American counterpart. Lees Meer

BoE slashes UK Growth forecast to lowest pace since the financial crisis

Sterling had a percentage point round trip yesterday with the Bank of England’s growth forecast causing much of the volatility. Headlines flashed across Bloomberg stating that the previous November estimate of growth in 2019, measured at 1.7%, was revised down in February’s release to 1.2% - this would be the lowest projected growth since the 2009 recession Lees Meer

Aber nein! German manufacturing sector continues to weigh on the euro

The barrage of negative German Manufacturing data seems endless with yesterday’s Factory Orders showing a contraction of 1.6% in December and this morning’s Industrial Production showing a 0.4% decline in the same month. The euro took it personally and declined for the third day in a row against USD yesterday and continues to be under pressure again this morning. Lees Meer

UK Services PMI point to economy grinding to a halt

GBP Sterling was among the worst performers in the G10 against the US Dollar yesterday, after weak Purchasing Managers’ Index data in the morning suggested the economy practically ground to a halt in January. Yesterday’s Services PMI came out at 50.1, barely above the 50 level that indicates overall output growth among the surveyed businesses. […] Lees Meer

UK consumers shrug off Brexit uncertainty for now

GBP Yesterday’s Markit/ CIPS Construction Survey showed that the uncertainty over Brexit dampened the construction sector’s recovery. The total activity index dropped to its lowest level since the March snowstorms last year, and the builders’ outlook isn’t much better. The manufacturing/ construction industries decisions in light of Brexit uncertainty have captured many of the headlines […] Lees Meer

Where now for Italy as a recession hits?

The single currency fought off a technical recession in Italy, downwardly revised growth forecasts from Germany, and the seemingly never-ending string of negative surprises in data last week to post a 0.43% gain against the dollar. Lees Meer

Euro weathers Italy’s technical recession fairly well

Yesterday the euro pared back some of the strength it had gained earlier, on the back of poor signs of economic performance released during the day. Preliminary GDP data indicates Italy had a 0.2% contraction in Q4, suggesting the country might have entered in a technical recession. Lees Meer

Powell opens a dovish door, but Fed doesn’t step through it – yet

GBP As the dust settled after the Tuesday evening Brexit amendment’s, sterling settled in the middle of the G10 currency pack as markets digested its implications. The adopted Brady amendment basically sends Theresa May back to the European Union to fiddle for more concession on the Irish backstop option, although European Union President Jean-Claude Juncker […] Lees Meer

Draghi is an optimistic dove

A new species has been discovered today in the Governing Council; the optimistic dove. European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi, once again displayed the variety of tones in his plume as he delivered a dovish message, but continuously guided the attention of the listener to the silver linings. Lees Meer

Tonight’s vote a barometer for parliamentary appetite for May’s deal

If May’s boisterous reception in the commons and tweets from Tory MPs are to be believed, May is more likely to survive tonight’s vote than not. This appears to be the market’s base case, with sterling rallying slightly this morning towards the 1.26 handle against USD despite the possibility of utter disaster in the event May loses and the UK heads for a no-deal outcome. Lees Meer

Preview ECB-rentebesluit

Risico’s blijven zich opstapelen in de Eurozone, wat ervoor zorgt dat de grote vraag voor de komende ECB bijeenkomst niet is of Mario Draghi terughoudend zal zijn, maar meer hoe terughoudend precies. Please accept statistics, marketing cookies to watch this video. Lees Meer

Kans extremere uitkomst Brexit groter

Nadat de stemming op de huidige Brexit deal van Theresa May op het laatste moment werd afgeblazen bevind het Brexit process zich nu in een patstelling. De kans op extreme uitkomsten zoals een no deal Brexit, of juist helemaal geen Brexit, wordt groter. Deze extra onzekerheid zet het pond onder druk. Please accept statistics, marketing […] Lees Meer

UK investors continue to hedge in light of greater uncertainty

UK investors continue to hedge in light of greater uncertainty

Following on from yesterday’s humiliating dodge, May now goes to Brussel’s to discuss going forward with Jean-Claude Juncker. Little has changed to our base case, despite the formal rejection of her draft Withdrawal Treaty not taking place. The $1.25 level has been realised, and May now goes to Brussel’s in an attempt to fudge contentious […] The post UK investors continue to hedge in light of greater uncertainty appeared first on Monex Europe. Lees Meer

OPEC stalls and loonie falls

Sterling remains on hold in anticipation of next week’s vote. Yesterday, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Phillip Hammond, reiterated to Parliament that the proposed Brexit deal cannot be renegotiated and stood in line with May’s “my deal or no deal” stance. This was largely expected by markets and saw them shrug off the same comments heard from the government over the last few weeks. Lees Meer

Markets look to Vienna for OPEC supply cut

Sterling continues to trade flat as the build-up to next week’s vote continues. Yesterday the government released the full legal advisory text from Attorney General Geoffrey Cox on the Brexit draft deal, with the main area of note that Northern Ireland would remain in the EU single market for goods and the EU customs regime, while Great Britain will be treated as a third country, should the backstop be enforced. Lees Meer

Sinterklaas brengt drukke dollarweek

De dollar staat een drukke week te wachten met op woensdag een getuigenis van Jerome Powell voor het Congres over de economische situatie in de VS. Ook zijn er de naweeën van de wapenstilstand in de handelsoorlog, de OPEC bijeenkomst op donderdag en de Non-Farms Payrolls op vrijdag. Ten slotte begint de spanning in het […] Lees Meer

Een twijfelende Draghi en Politieke onrusten in Europa

Valuta-specialist Bart Hordijk van Monex Europe over de Italiaanse begroting en de Brexit. Volgens de valuta-specialist ligt Rome op ramkoers met Brussel, is de grote vraag rond de Brexit: Will May stay?, en twijfelt ECB-president Mario Draghi voor het eerst over de inflatieverwachtingen in de eurozone op de middellange termijn. Please accept statistics, marketing cookies […] Lees Meer

Monex op de beurs: Update over de Brexit en het pond

Theresa May slaagde er op woensdagavond in om haar kabinet achter haar Brexit deal te scharen. De deal is echter nog verre van rond, met nog twee vervaarlijk uitziende beren op de weg; een mogelijke motie van wantrouwen tegen May en of de deal wel langs de Britse tweede kamer (House of Commons) komt. Mocht […] Lees Meer

EURUSD op laagste punt in 17 maanden.

De EURUSD staat op het laagste punt in 17 maanden. Martijn Weller legt uit wat de oorzaken hiervan zijn en blikt kort vooruit op de komende week. Please accept statistics, marketing cookies to watch this video. Lees Meer

Impact Amerikaanse Midterm Verkiezingen EURUSD

Optiemarkten laten zien dat marktparticipanten zich nog weinig indekken tegen een zwakkere dollar na de midterms, terwijl marktbewegingen uit het verleden juist tonen dat valuta flink kan bewegen rondom Amerikaanse verkiezingsuitslagen. Potentieel een moment om limietorders in te zetten om voordeel te halen uit deze verwachte volatiliteit. Please accept statistics, marketing cookies to watch this […] Lees Meer

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Ranko Berich

Ranko Berich

Hoofd marktanalyse

Ranko Berich geeft leiding aan het team van analisten van Monex Europe en levert actueel inzicht in en commentaar op ontwikkelingen in valutabewegingen en hun oorzaken.
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Simon Harvey

Simon Harvey

Valuta Marktspecialist

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Olivia.Alvarez

Olivia Alvarez

Valuta Marktspecialist

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