MARKT

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Euro kicked in the teeth as German economy contracts

Euro kicked in the teeth as German economy contracts

The euro has taken a major knock this morning, after the release of utterly dismal Flash Purchasing Managers Index data for Germany in September. Lees Meer

Sterling hits highs following Juncker optimism

Sterling hits highs following Juncker optimism

Sterling had a brief flurry of strength yesterday as reports emerged that European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker, said he is doing “everything” to prevent a no-deal exit. Lees Meer

Dollar firms as Fed under delivers on expectations

Dollar firms as Fed under delivers on expectations

The dollar reacted positively to yesterday’s rate cut from the Federal Open Market Committee, as the move was seen as hawkish when compared to very high market expectations for easing from the Fed. Lees Meer

Short-term USD liquidity dominated market focus yesterday

Short-term USD liquidity dominated market focus yesterday

Although one 25 basis point rate cut was universally expected well before this week’s drama, there is some risk of a larger 50 basis point cut, a pause in the Fed’s current reduction in its balance sheet, or a dovish revision in forward guidance. Lees Meer

US dollar continues to surge ahead of Fed

US dollar continues to surge ahead of Fed

The US dollar is back on the front foot after a relatively bad start to the week. The market’s focus will soon shift onto the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow. Forward guidance will be the key for the dollar as markets have already priced in another 25 basis point cut. Lees Meer

Oil rallies most since 1988 – markets await US supply response

Oil rallies most since 1988 – markets await US supply response

WTI crude is up 7.8% this morning with Brent touching the 10% mark after rallying some 20% at the open of Asian trading hours. Lees Meer

Draghi exits ECB with a bang as EURUSD climbs higher

Draghi exits ECB with a bang as EURUSD climbs higher

The euro had a wild ride yesterday, driven by adjusting fixed income markets following a historic last monetary policy meeting for President Mario Draghi of the European Central Bank. Lees Meer

EUR dips below 1.10 ahead of ECB decision

EUR dips below 1.10 ahead of ECB decision

Today is a historic day for the euro and the ECB, which is likely to restart its quantitative easing programme while also cutting interest rates. Today’s press conference at 13:30 BST will be Mario Draghi’s last as President. Lees Meer

Markets sit flat as Scandies lead sell-off

Markets sit flat as Scandies lead sell-off

The Scandies were the place to be in the G10 space yesterday as market volatility was subdued. Poor inflationary data from Sweden and reducing inflationary pressures in Norway sparked a Scandie led sell-off in the G10 space yesterday morning as expectations of Scandanavian rate hikes were put on ice. Lees Meer

Current EURJPY Strength Is Based On Market Risk Sentiment

Current EURJPY Strength Is Based On Market Risk Sentiment

EURJPY has been an interesting cross over the last few months as it accurately depicts the markets gauge of the US-China trade war and the resulting global growth story. Lees Meer

G10 mixed ahead of key rate decisions

G10 mixed ahead of key rate decisions

Sterling etched marginally higher against the US dollar yesterday as July’s GDP figures surprised to the upside with a reading of 0.3% MoM growth. Lees Meer

Draghi’s final ECB meeting dominates this week’s events

Draghi’s final ECB meeting dominates this week’s events

The euro’s fortune this week and beyond will, in large part, come down to the events of this Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting. Lees Meer

USD looks to jobs data amid fears of a recession

USD looks to jobs data amid fears of a recession

The US dollar held its head above the water yesterday with the help of the ADP employment report, which is a precursor to the NFP release Lees Meer

Sterling sits still in face of incoming election

Sterling sits still in face of incoming election

Boris suffered yet another round of blows last night in the House of Commons as MPs forced the PM to allow the Benn bill. Should this achieve royal assent Lees Meer

La libra indecisa sobre las siguientes jugadas de Boris Johnson

La libra indecisa sobre las siguientes jugadas de Boris Johnson

Los acontecimientos trascendentales de anoche en Westminster resultaron poco decisivos para la libra esterlina, que se recuperó de los mínimos de dos años Lees Meer

What tonight’s vote – and a general election – means for sterling

What tonight’s vote – and a general election – means for sterling

Elevated no deal risk is the overall driver of the current bout of sterling weakness, we estimate that the pound is likely to weaken by around a further 7% Lees Meer

Another “crunch” week for Brexit

Another “crunch” week for Brexit

Sterling has been weakening against the US dollar since last Wednesday, but this has been more a story of broad US dollar strength Lees Meer

King dollar still reigns

King dollar still reigns

Sterling sold off slightly against USD, and traded as flat as a pancake against the euro. The outlines of next week’s Parliamentary battles became clearer Lees Meer

Boris may have Labour work for him – sterling expects extra volatility

Boris may have Labour work for him – sterling expects extra volatility

Johnson has said MP’s will still have enough time to discuss Brexit, however, there may be little time left between the new opening of Parliament Lees Meer

This greenback ain’t scared by a little yield inversion

This greenback ain’t scared by a little yield inversion

Greenback surfed the wave of risk-off sentiment that continued to roll over markets yesterday, which had it end stronger against most G10 currencies Lees Meer

Dismal German data may reveal diamonds in the dirt

Dismal German data may reveal diamonds in the dirt

Monday morning brought a dismal German Ifo Business Climate Index that set the negative tone for the euro for the remainder of the day Lees Meer

EU hits ball into Boris’s court, sterling rallies

EU hits ball into Boris’s court, sterling rallies

Sterling surged to its highest levels of the month yesterday afternoon, as Merkel and Macron served a two layered cake of warm words Lees Meer

Sterling rises on hints of compromise

Sterling rises on hints of compromise

Sterling has rocketed to month highs against both EUR and USD after two days of meetings between Boris Johnson and the leaders of France and Germany Lees Meer

Would you like a glass of wine with that?

Would you like a glass of wine with that?

Sterling is trading lower this morning, glimmers of hope for a Brexit deal emerged from Berlin yesterday as Angela Merkel told Boris Johnson he had 30 days Lees Meer

Angela Merkel Takes Control of Sterling Price Action

Angela Merkel Takes Control of Sterling Price Action

German Chancellor Angela Merkel was in charge of sterling price action yesterday, as the pound rallied dramatically in the afternoon Lees Meer

Scent of Groundhog Day hangs over markets

Scent of Groundhog Day hangs over markets

Sterling is lower this morning, amid a renewed effort by Boris Johnson to convince EU leaders to cave to his demands that the Irish backstop is removed Lees Meer

With Johnson away, it’s Corbyn’s time to play

With Johnson away, it’s Corbyn’s time to play

Corbyn may be sneaking through the hallways of Westminster, attempting to forge an alliance that holds enough support to have a vote of no confidence Lees Meer

Red-hot US Retail sales sends challenge to ardent doves

Red-hot US Retail sales sends challenge to ardent doves

US equity markets defied the trend of losses in Asia and Europe yesterday, and the dollar traded with mixed results, strengthening against JPY and EUR Lees Meer

UK Consumers don’t give a fig about Brexit, but no-deal still hangs over sterling’s head

UK Consumers don’t give a fig about Brexit, but no-deal still hangs over sterling’s head

It would seem UK consumers still don’t give a fig about Brexit, and remain more than willing to spend their real wage increases Lees Meer

US yield curve crosses the rubicon

US yield curve crosses the rubicon

The risk-off mood swelled as the most important part of the US yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007 and USD dominated the G10 currency board Lees Meer

Only Brexit matters for Sterling

Only Brexit matters for Sterling

Sterling was unaffected by yesterday’s U-turn in global risk appetite, which saw emerging market currencies rally and havens such as JPY and CHF sell off Lees Meer

Cracking jobs report…when’s the BoE cutting again?

Cracking jobs report…when’s the BoE cutting again?

The UK labour market remains in cracking shape despite business investment grinding to a halt and growth turning negative in the second quarter Lees Meer

Sterling knocking on record lows

Sterling knocking on record lows

Sterling rose slightly from the multi-decade lows seen against the dollar and euro yesterday, with reports of a rebellion brewing in Parliament Lees Meer

Mexico’s Central Bank faces a complex trade-off ahead of Thursday’s monetary policy decision

Mexico’s Central Bank faces a complex trade-off ahead of Thursday’s monetary policy decision

The Mexican peso is exposed to downside pressures given the uncertain scenario, a restrictive stance of the monetary policy Lees Meer

PBOC puts Yuan into play for play for trade war, but signals continued management of bilateral USDCNY

PBOC puts Yuan into play for play for trade war, but signals continued management of bilateral USDCNY

The yuan is in play as a factor that Chinese authorities are willing to use in the event of further escalations in the US-China trade war Lees Meer

Sterling goes low as Brexit woes grow

Sterling goes low as Brexit woes grow

After a week of poor data and compounding Brexit woes, GBPUSD saw its lowest weekly close since 1985 last week, while GBPEUR has reached fresh decade lows Lees Meer

Political storm brews in the Med

Political storm brews in the Med

The announcement of fresh elections in Italy has put no pressure on the single currency thus far as fixed income markets take the beating. Two-year Italian government debt now carries positive yield again, rising dome 20 basis points on open this morning. Risk-off sentiment in the Eurozone has led to German 2-year bund yields falling to early-2017 lows. Lees Meer

Risk-off moves continue as recession indicators flash amber

Risk-off moves continue as recession indicators flash amber

Recession signals began to turn alarmingly amber, with the German bond curve reaching its flattest state since the 2008 recession. Lees Meer

RBNZ thinks big with 50bp cut in the face of US-China risk

RBNZ thinks big with 50bp cut in the face of US-China risk

The New Zealand dollar is down some 2.7% against the US dollar and suffered against its Australian counterpart, house prices are falling in NZ Lees Meer

China labelled currency manipulator, for all the wrong reasons

China labelled currency manipulator, for all the wrong reasons

The Chinese yuan has clawed back some of yesterday’s losses as the Peoples Bank of China outline their stance on the Rmb7.00 Lees Meer

Yuan breaks key psychological level as trade wars bite

Yuan breaks key psychological level as trade wars bite

The People’s Bank of China set a soft fix for the onshore yuan this morning which allowed the pressure of the offshore traded yuan to filter into local markets Lees Meer

CNY weakness brings risk back into market focus

CNY weakness brings risk back into market focus

Today, investors will be awaiting Donald Trump’s awakening to Twitter with the Chinese yuan breaking the 7.00 level. Market forces have driven a weaker yuan Lees Meer

Trump announcing tariffs on China could be a slippery slope

Trump announcing tariffs on China could be a slippery slope

Donald Trump added to the latest batch of market volatility yesterday by extending tariffs to cover all Chinese imports just hours after the Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook on rate cuts.  Lees Meer

Trade wars give Trump what he wants: a weaker dollar

Trade wars give Trump what he wants: a weaker dollar

The US dollar fell from the heavens (highs not seen since mid-2017) yesterday evening after Donald Trump announced an additional 10% tariffs Lees Meer

The first cut is the deepest (because none may follow)

The first cut is the deepest (because none may follow)

Sterling battled with the broad dollar strength yesterday but ultimately fell victim to a fresh round of pressure this morning Lees Meer

FOMC meeting promises to deliver monetary drama on prime time

FOMC meeting promises to deliver monetary drama on prime time

While Johnson toured the devolved nations, sterling had a trip itself but to climates further south. The pound carved fresh lows against the dollar Lees Meer

Sterling continues to hit fresh lows on no-deal prospects

Sterling continues to hit fresh lows on no-deal prospects

Every day is seemingly bringing fresh lows to sterling, with no definitive catalyst apart from the increased risk of a general election or a no-deal exit, especially with Boris Johnson and deputy Gove sending markets mixed messages. Lees Meer

It’s hard to see how the FOMC can live up to expectations with US data this good

It’s hard to see how the FOMC can live up to expectations with US data this good

As Powell, Williams and others have recently made clear, the FOMC is about to cut rates despite historic tightness in the labour market Lees Meer

Buying the sterling dip still requires nerves of steel

Buying the sterling dip still requires nerves of steel

Sterling hovered near two year lows last week, as Boris Johnson was installed as PM and confirmed that his strategy was to insist the EU reopen the Withdrawal Agreement. The EU duly refused. Notably, the confirmation of Boris and “do or die” by the 31st did not weaken sterling further. This suggests that a very […] Lees Meer

Stormy data calendar set to disturb Summer doldrums this week

Stormy data calendar set to disturb Summer doldrums this week

A fresh day brings fresh lows on sterling as the pound continues to get dragged into the doldrums with negative Brexit sentiment. Lees Meer

First Juncker-Boris call goes as well as you’d expect

First Juncker-Boris call goes as well as you’d expect

Sterling is back near its weekly lows against the US dollar this morning, after having its brief post-Boris rally cut short last night Lees Meer

Boris swings the axe and builds a Cabinet

Boris swings the axe and builds a Cabinet

Sterling enjoyed a small rally yesterday, as Boris Johnson assumed power and went through the process of sacking and appointing cabinet ministers Lees Meer

Muscle flexing and toolkit display prepares Mr. Draghi for his final day

Muscle flexing and toolkit display prepares Mr. Draghi for his final day

We expect Mario Draghi will start preparing for a dovish legacy by keeping all options open, reminiscent of his “whatever it takes” speech in 2014 Lees Meer

Boris’ rule keeps sterling cool

Boris’ rule keeps sterling cool

As expected Boris Johnson was announced as the winner of the Conservative Party leadership contest. The landslide victory of 66% Lees Meer

USD rally continues as White House and Democrats reach budget deal

USD rally continues as White House and Democrats reach budget deal

Sterling followed the rest of the G10 currencies lower against the US dollar yesterday, and has extended its losses this morning Lees Meer

Markets go for a leaner cut after Fed walks back dovish comments

Markets go for a leaner cut after Fed walks back dovish comments

The greenback topped the G10 board on Friday after the dovish comments of Federal Open Market Committee John Williams were walked back late Thursday night Lees Meer

USD volatile as New York Fed walks back its own CEO’s comments

USD volatile as New York Fed walks back its own CEO’s comments

Sterling has had an eventful week. After reaching fresh two year lows on Wednesday, the pound began to rally after some headline fodder from Michel Barnier and some superb Retail Sales figures. Since then, last night’s broad US dollar weakness has seen the pound extend its gains. Lees Meer

Sterling’s getting smoked like a kipper – Johnson remains optimistic

Sterling’s getting smoked like a kipper – Johnson remains optimistic

It was another day, another fresh low for sterling yesterday, as news headlines continue to serve a menu of Brexit pessimism Lees Meer

Sterling; shaken, stirred and pounded

Sterling; shaken, stirred and pounded

Sterling took yet another pounding yesterday, reaching its lowest level against the dollar since April 2017, as upbeat jobs data did nothing Lees Meer

Labour market data might work out recent sterling weakness

Labour market data might work out recent sterling weakness

Sterling pared back last week’s gains significantly yesterday, and is once again threatening to reach fresh lows against the US dollar Lees Meer

Even after last week’s two year lows, downside risk is far from priced for Sterling

Even after last week’s two year lows, downside risk is far from priced for Sterling

June’s Purchasing Managers indices set the stage for the latest bout of sterling weakness when they were released two weeks ago, showing the UK economy in contraction in the second quarter. Since then GBPUSD has reached its lowest level since April 2017. Given GBPUSD has fallen more than 13% from 2018’s highs to last week’s […] Lees Meer

SARB set to cut on Thursday but won’t do Ramaphosa’s dirty work on promoting growth

SARB set to cut on Thursday but won’t do Ramaphosa’s dirty work on promoting growth

The South African economy hasn’t shown signs of a vigorous rebound in activity following the largest economic contraction in a decade in the first quarter of 2019, with the latest data releases pointing to 0.5% GDP growth for the year. Lees Meer

Dollar faces further Fed speakers this week

Dollar faces further Fed speakers this week

The greenback was the weakest G10 FX performer on Friday and ended the week clinging to the bottom rung of the G10 currency ladder Lees Meer

Barry bolsters oil markets

Barry bolsters oil markets

Crude markets have rallied as tropical storm Barry is expected to hit Louisiana over the weekend, creating a high flooding risk as well as likely disruptions to oil and gas supply in the Gulf of Mexico Lees Meer

Powell sets July rate cuts in stone

Powell sets July rate cuts in stone

The dollar weakened yesterday after Jerome Powell confirmed that the Federal Reserve would almost certainly be cutting rates in the near future. Lees Meer

Game, set and match for sterling bears as currency hits fresh 2019 lows

Game, set and match for sterling bears as currency hits fresh 2019 lows

Sterling closed at a fresh 2019 low yesterday as the BRC Retail Sales Monitor highlighted that the Q2 slowdown is spread over multiple sections of the UK economy Lees Meer

Cracking cable ain’t a fable

Cracking cable ain’t a fable

Sterling cracks a fresh 2019 low this morning as the BRC Sales Monitor for June slashes one of the final legs of support for the UK economy - consumption. Lees Meer

Non-farm payrolls to Fed: are you sure you want to cut rates?

Non-farm payrolls to Fed: are you sure you want to cut rates?

Most of the dollar strength arrived on Friday as June’s NonFarm Payrolls highlighted the resilience of the US labour market with the economy adding 224,000 jobs Lees Meer

G10 currencies throw a pancake party

G10 currencies throw a pancake party

Sterling sat flat yesterday as the dollar mildly sold off, but failed to make any substantive gains as thoughts of an extensive Brexit related slowdown in the UK economy Lees Meer

Tread carefully as surveys indicate potential UK recession

Tread carefully as surveys indicate potential UK recession

Sterling had a bad day on the whole yesterday, reaching fresh lows against both USD and EUR after June’s Services Purchasing Managers Index was released in the morning. Lees Meer

UK GDP flirts with negative growth in Q2

UK GDP flirts with negative growth in Q2

Sterling was dragged down by yet another catastrophic PMI reading yesterday from the construction sector this time, building on the dismal manufacturing PMI on Monday. The catalysts; Brexit uncertainty and slowing external demand. The pound undoubtedly sold off on the release, but the biggest downturn could be yet to come. Lees Meer

Recession Fears Wake Euro Bears

Recession Fears Wake Euro Bears

The single currency got caught in the maelstrom of negativity that flowed from manufacturing survey data, which throughout the day eventually dragged EUR down towards the bottom of the G10 ranks. Together with swiftly waning inflation pressures, this indeed justifies further monetary easing by the European Central Bank, which confirms markets in their assessment there is currently a 76% chance of an ECB rate cut in September. Lees Meer

Trade truce struck; USD and EMFX throw a party

Trade truce struck; USD and EMFX throw a party

The greenback strengthened this morning after US President Trump announced “no further tariffs” on China indefinitely, which means a derailing of global trade, for now, won’t force the Federal Reserve into hasting into a cutting cycle. Lees Meer

Calm before G20 storm

Calm before G20 storm

This weekend’s G20 meeting certainly has the potential to shake up dollar pricing along with global markets Lees Meer

Roses are red, violets are blue, a no-deal Brexit, Boris won’t do

Roses are red, violets are blue, a no-deal Brexit, Boris won’t do

Further attempts to block a no-deal exit are set to be voted on Tuesday next week. Legislation proposed by Conservative Dominic Grieve and Labour’s Margaret Beckett aims to block off funding for Whitehall departments Lees Meer

Geopolitics in scope this week

Geopolitics in scope this week

Last week’s price action was dominated by speculation over global policy rates following a dovish turn by the Federal Reserve. While markets have increased their bets on how much the Fed will cut rates, with pricing currently suggesting 78 basis points by January 2020, this week’s geopolitical events are beginning to take the mantle in […] Lees Meer

Introducing, The Bullard Bounce

Introducing, The Bullard Bounce

The Bullard bounce: a retracement in the dollar due to comments from St. Louis chief James Bullard that pushed back expectations of an immediate 50 basis point July rate cut. Lees Meer

Traders drop dollar like a hot potato

Traders drop dollar like a hot potato

Traders have dropped the dollar like a hot potato over the course of the last five working days, with the dollar DXY index falling 1.75% against G10 counterparts. Lees Meer

USD nosedives as geopolitics comes into scope

USD nosedives as geopolitics comes into scope

Tensions between the US and China may find some relief this week with an “extended meeting” between President’s Trump and Xi expected to take place. Lees Meer

The Hunt is on, the dollar is down

The Hunt is on, the dollar is down

The US dollar fell to a three-month low overnight as traders added to their bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the coming periods. Lees Meer

False start from Powell in race to the bottom

False start from Powell in race to the bottom

It was a false start from Fed Governor Jerome Powell in the race with Mario Draghi to the bottom last night as the US central bank held rates at the current levels as they continue to monitor the incoming data. Lees Meer

Draghi’s dovish tune drives Trump mad and EURUSD lower

Draghi’s dovish tune drives Trump mad and EURUSD lower

Euro prospects later began to appear even bleaker as President Trump reacted to Draghi’s speech with a tweet in which he implicitly accused the ECB President of intentionally weakening the euro. Lees Meer

ZAR rallies after Draghi hints at policy easing

ZAR rallies after Draghi hints at policy easing

Despite global growth woes still prominent on investors’ minds, the prospects of lower interest rates and increased liquidity in the Eurozone prompted a surge into the rand and South African bonds this morning Lees Meer

Draghi’s legacy: letting the rate cutting geenie out of the bottle

Draghi’s legacy: letting the rate cutting geenie out of the bottle

A full ECB rate cut is now priced in by futures markets for 2019 after Draghi showed his concerns about the persistently low inflation in the Eurozone and the lingering risks to growth, especially stemming from weak manufacturing and export conditions. Lees Meer

China offloads more US Treasuries putting the dollar on the back foot

China offloads more US Treasuries putting the dollar on the back foot

The greenback continues to trade on the back foot this morning as news is released that China’s holdings of US Treasuries are at its lowest point in two years, sparking fears that the trade war may begin to move into fixed income markets. Lees Meer

Greenback tramples G10 currencies after red-hot Retail Sales

Greenback tramples G10 currencies after red-hot Retail Sales

Strong Retail Sales gave the greenback rampant momentum on Friday afternoon which led it to top the G10 currency for the day and added to the gains USD made earlier in the week. Lees Meer

Stuck in the mud sterling

Stuck in the mud sterling

GBP The pound continues to flat against the US dollar move as currency traders remain reluctant to move the needle given substantial political uncertainty remains. Yesterday saw 3 Tory leadership candidates exit the race at the first stage. Mark Harper, Commons Leader Andrea Leadsom, and Esther McVey were all knocked out following the first secret […] Lees Meer

Key FOMC preview

Key FOMC preview

As the FOMC blackout period rolls on, market participants continue to ask if the current Fed pricing is too aggressive as the dollar begins to trade in a tight range in the run-up to next week’s main event. Lees Meer

Westminster keeps no-deal on the table, prompting a slip in the pound

Westminster keeps no-deal on the table, prompting a slip in the pound

Sterling sat in the green for most of yesterday’s session until Parliament rejected Labour’s proposal to take control of the Parliamentary business motion at the end of the month Lees Meer

ECB speakers and US CPI put rate cuts in focus

ECB speakers and US CPI put rate cuts in focus

Today may be the day in which we find out as a long list of ECB doves take to the wires, with Draghi scheduled at around 09:15 BST. Lees Meer

Conditions in South Africa begin to look up

Conditions in South Africa begin to look up

The South African rand remains the worst performing EM currency month-to-date as Q1’s GDP release roiled investor nerves. However, with much of the sell-off in the rand attributed to souring foreign investor sentiment given last quarters deterioration in economic conditions, the rand may start to show signs of a sharp reversal if the economic data […] Lees Meer

Sterling battles with Brexit and deteriorating data

Sterling battles with Brexit and deteriorating data

Sterling fell in a dramatic fashion yesterday as April’s economic growth data showed the economy shrank by 0.4% on a monthly basis. Meanwhile in Brexit; 10 Tory MP’s have passed the first hurdle to make it into the leadership race Lees Meer

US dollar flails as investors mull a rate cut from the Fed

US dollar flails as investors mull a rate cut from the Fed

Friday saw the US dollar take on a heavy batch of water after a dismal Nonfarm Payroll release added to a significantly lower ADP release earlier on in the week. Lees Meer

Non-farms miss only partly validates expectations for dovish Fed

Non-farms miss only partly validates expectations for dovish Fed

Non-Farm payrolls missed expectations to print at +75,000 in May, far less than the 178,000 median forecast on Bloomberg. Revisions to previous months were net negative by 75,000. Average earnings were up 0.2%, compared to 0.2% monthly growth in May and up 3.1% year on year. On the surface, it certainly looks like there is […] Lees Meer

ECB hawks derailed and out of the picture

ECB hawks derailed and out of the picture

The euro saw some wild swings of volatility yesterday around the European Central Bank meeting as a hawkish rate statement was followed by moments of dovish reckoning during the press conference. Lees Meer

Dollar reverses rout following positive beige book release

Dollar reverses rout following positive beige book release

The US dollar held relatively firm following the dramatic sell-off over the last few days with the DXY index rising 0.2%. Yesterday saw the worst ADP employment reading since 2010 in the US Lees Meer

Loose lips make Fed expectations slip

Loose lips make Fed expectations slip

Dovish Federal Reserve rumbles sent the entire US yield curve down yesterday, which, led by moves at the front-end of the curve, eventually dragged the dollar down in the mud. Lees Meer

Bets on Fed rate cuts tank greenback

Bets on Fed rate cuts tank greenback

The greenback experienced a good old fashioned hammering yesterday after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard was the first voting Federal Open Market Committee member who explicitly hinted at the need for Fed rate cuts on the short run. Lees Meer

Weak German inflation derails ECB’s tightening intentions

Weak German inflation derails ECB’s tightening intentions

The single currency clawed back some losses on EURUSD after four consecutive days of decline, despite weak German inflation. This week US President Donald Trump is visiting the UK, but developments in the Conservative Party leadership contest will likely be the main driver of sterling price action this week. Lees Meer

Trump’s tariff threats weigh on MXN fortune

Trump’s tariff threats weigh on MXN fortune

The Mexican peso opened the European session at its worst levels of the year against the dollar, following the announcement by Donald Trump on a round of progressive tariffs from 5% to 25%, to take effect between June 10th and October 1st, until the Mexican authorities "stop" illegal immigration at the border. Lees Meer

Trump Mexican tariff Tweets boost greenback

Trump Mexican tariff Tweets boost greenback

The greenback remains resilient amidst President Trump’s unsatiable need for confrontation on the geopolitical stage after he announced a plan to increase tariffs on Mexican exports as long as immigrants continue to flow into the US through Mexico. Lees Meer

G10 still struggling against USD

G10 still struggling against USD

Sterling weakened further against the US dollar yesterday, and has reached a fresh low for the month this morning after Phillip Hammond spoke out against a no-deal Brexit Lees Meer

US dollar sucks in foreign capital as US treasuries surge

US dollar sucks in foreign capital as US treasuries surge

Investors continue their search for yield in a challenging global climate, which has seen the dollar sustain recent gains of late. Lees Meer

Graham Brady shows May the door

Graham Brady shows May the door

Theresa May is set to announce her formal resignation today according to nearly all political commentators. The PM will retain her position until June 10th in order to host the visit from US President Donald Trump on June 3rd. Lees Meer

What next for May and Sterling?

What next for May and Sterling?

Following the latest failure of her withdrawal agreement, Theresa May’s premiership is over in any meaningful sense.  The only question is when she will finally announce her resignation, and what tone the race to replace her takes? Lees Meer

May and sterling reluctant to move as the 1922 circles

May and sterling reluctant to move as the 1922 circles

In the afternoon of yesterday’s session, sterling stood still as political headlines came thick and fast with speculation rife that May would announce her retirement that evening amid significant pressure from senior party officials. Lees Meer

To Brexit or not to Brexit, that is the question

To Brexit or not to Brexit, that is the question

Yesterday, Theresa May pinned her hopes on increasing votes in favour of the Withdrawal Bill from Labour, as opposed to votes from within her own Tory party, ahead of the vote in 2-weeks’ time. Lees Meer

China accuses US of making wrong call on Huawei

China accuses US of making wrong call on Huawei

This morning it became clear President Trump has signed a waiver to postpone the sanctions against Chinese technology company Huawei for three months. The market reaction of this potential first step towards atonement is muted, however, as the measures are still to be implemented later. Lees Meer

Sterling falls off the Boris Cliff once again

Sterling falls off the Boris Cliff once again

Friday’s collapse of talks between Labour and May confirmed what markets had been progressively pricing in last week: that May’s final attempt at passing her withdrawal agreement in Parliament was likely to end in failure and resignation. The two key things to watch this week will be how the chances of May’s deal evolve, and the tone of the simmering battle to replace her. Lees Meer

May likely to be gone in June

May likely to be gone in June

Unless May manages to achieve some type of breakthrough in the near future, a likely Conservative Party revolt would see her ousted and replaced, possibly by a Eurosceptic such as Boris Johnson - a prospect that would likely see further sterling weakness due to the increased chances of a no-deal Brexit in October. Lees Meer

Euro and sterling face political headwinds

Euro and sterling face political headwinds

There seems to be no winner in current British politics, but there definitely is one loser - the pound. GBPUSD falls for the sixth consecutive trading day and now sits at levels not seen since mid-February. Lees Meer

Chinese dragon breathes out sparks, but doesn’t spit fire yet

Chinese dragon breathes out sparks, but doesn’t spit fire yet

This can be the synopsis of China’s largest sell-off of US treasury paper in two years in March, as it remains tiny compared to China’s total UST holdings, while even Canada sold more USTs that month. Lees Meer

Sterling pushes towards a 3-month low as May’s tenure looks set to end

Sterling pushes towards a 3-month low as May’s tenure looks set to end

News from Westminster that the Withdrawal Agreement will be put to a vote in the Commons at the beginning of June has brought the Brexit headache back for those investing in British assets. The game of picking the likeliest Brexit outcome has re-emerged, however, this time around market sentiment has deteriorated substantially. With the withdrawal […] Lees Meer

EURUSD nears $1.10 level

EURUSD nears $1.10 level

The recent response by the single currency is the complete opposite to that seen last year in April and May when a surge in global trade uncertainty had the euro quickly sink below the $1.20 level. This time it’s different for the euro, which suggests the currency may be close to a bottom on EURUSD. Lees Meer

May goes back for a fourth serving

May goes back for a fourth serving

Sterling continues to sit on the back foot as a G10 currency against the dollar in a mild risk-off environment. Now, Theresa May will hold out for cross-party talks to bear fruit in order to secure much needed Labour votes ahead of the WA’s fourth running. Lees Meer

Bitcoin-Altcoin Spread Suggests different dynamic to previous Crypto Booms

Bitcoin-Altcoin Spread Suggests different dynamic to previous Crypto Booms

Bitcoin is on a tear this week, having strengthened by almost 40% against the US dollar since Friday. Lees Meer

FX drift on the tides of trade sentiment

FX drift on the tides of trade sentiment

Sterling was stuck in the middle of the G10 currency board yesterday as a lack of data released along with a stagnant Brexit process meant the pound followed suit against the US dollar move. Lees Meer

Banxico on hold as risks worsen

Banxico on hold as risks worsen

The trade impasse threatens Mexican growth prospects via lower external demand from the US, which accounts for 80% of Mexican exports. Lees Meer

Car tariffs may nip Eurozone green shoots in the bud

Car tariffs may nip Eurozone green shoots in the bud

This week brings new updates on the green shoots in the Eurozone, with the German ZEW Economic Sentiment on Tuesday and the vital First Gross Domestic Product reading for Germany on Wednesday. Lees Meer

Ramaphosa euphoria sweeps SA markets

Ramaphosa euphoria sweeps SA markets

With 85% of the vote counted thus far, President Ramaphosa is likely to retain office for his first full 5-year stretch. Lees Meer

G10 FX takes tariff increases in its stride

G10 FX takes tariff increases in its stride

Sterling has unwound all of last Friday’s Brexit optimism with the pound paring back 0.7% this week so far against the US dollar. On the face of it, the Brexit riddled coinage has fared relatively well compared to its G10 compatriots as trade tensions resurface. Lees Meer

US-China: The calm before the storm

US-China: The calm before the storm

With such an important global macro event taking place in Washington today, FX markets float in limbo as the possibility of the trade war resurfacing remains ever-present. Lees Meer

US-China dialogue opens as G10 trades in a tight range

US-China dialogue opens as G10 trades in a tight range

he US dollar has traded in an increasingly tight range since the announcement of potential further tariffs on Sunday, as measured by the broad dollar DXY index. Lees Meer

Wonders on Anfield, worries in Westminster

Wonders on Anfield, worries in Westminster

Theresa May continues to battle to leave Europe, whereas Liverpool kept one foot firmly in the continent after last night’s historic performance. Lees Meer

Shifting tectonic Brexit plates shake up sterling

Shifting tectonic Brexit plates shake up sterling

The pound continues to trade in flux after Friday’s surge in Brexit optimism following a hammer blow for the Conservative party in local elections, whilst PM May is under revived pressure from the backbench 1922 committee. Lees Meer

Trump’s unsurprising surprises for China

GBP Optimism on a Brexit compromise led sterling to the top of the board on Friday, after a damning election result drove the Conservative and the Labour Party straight into each other’s arms. Theresa May continued to drop hints she may be willing to compromise on some form of customs union with the European bloc. […] Lees Meer

South African election preview

South African election preview

South African elections are set to take place on Wednesday 8th May, with the results expected within 48 hours of polls closing. That being said, most polling stations report results within 24 hours so the market reaction will likely occur on Friday. Lees Meer

G10 and EM sell-off post FOMC

G10 and EM sell-off post FOMC

Sterling stopped just short of 5 consecutive days trading in the green yesterday as the dollar reigned supreme and took the pound as one of many victims. Even an optimistic Bank of England failed to stem the pound's losses with Governor Carney painting an positive picture of growth and promised future rate hikes - once Brexit is wrapped up of course. Lees Meer

Resistance to crude upside looks firm despite supply shocks

Resistance to crude upside looks firm despite supply shocks

Green sprouts appearing through dark soil has become the narrative in FX markets this quarter as global headwinds begin to ease. However, after the strong correction in Q1, the same cannot be said for oil markets as the rally begins to peter out. Lees Meer

Lingering spirit Janet Yellen reveals Fed optimism

Lingering spirit Janet Yellen reveals Fed optimism

USD The lingering spirit of former Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen may have stirred current Fed chair Jerome Powell to use the words “transitory factors” when explaining the unexpected fall in core inflation since December. As this shows the confidence of the Fed that inflation will rebound coming months, which justifies a tighter monetary policy, […] Lees Meer

Eurozone growth laughs in the face of pessimistic surveys

Eurozone growth laughs in the face of pessimistic surveys

The single currency had a stellar day yesterday after both Q1 Flash Gross Domestic Product growth and German Inflation figures left expectations behind them in the dust. Lees Meer

Fortunes turn for Eurozone data

Fortunes turn for Eurozone data

The euro seems to have weathered the storm, for now anyway, after it pounced on a softening US dollar yesterday. This morning’s data releases bode well for the single currency. Lees Meer

Dollar rally in focus ahead of busy data week

Dollar rally in focus ahead of busy data week

The dollar took a breather on Friday, having reached fresh 2019 highs against most major currencies and on indices such as DXY. Friday’s first-quarter GDP data came in well above expectations. Lees Meer

USD still on top heading into crucial Q1 GDP print

USD still on top heading into crucial Q1 GDP print

The dollar remained dominant yesterday, reaching a fresh 23 month high as measured by the DXY index. Yesterday’s data was firm, with Durable Goods rising a solid 0.4% and Unemployment Claims rising slightly to 230,000 for the week Lees Meer

If cash is king, the dollar reigns supreme

If cash is king, the dollar reigns supreme

The US dollar surged yet again yesterday after dovish central bank meetings in Australia and Canada reignited growth concerns and sparked a risk-off move in currency markets. Lees Meer

Ifo business survey: Schade Deutschland!

Ifo business survey: Schade Deutschland!

The German Ifo business climate brought sobering news, as it signals that a German economic rebound in the rest of the year remains far from certain, while downside risks prove frustratingly persistent. Lees Meer

USD rises to 17-month high ahead of Golden Week holidays

USD rises to 17-month high ahead of Golden Week holidays

USD Together with JPY, USD topped the G10 currency board yesterday, which send the DXY dollar index to the highest point since June 2017. The move appeared to be led by flows into US equity and treasury markets, which also sent the S&P500 to new all-time highs while solid demand for a 2-year treasury auction […] Lees Meer

European markets walk back in to higher oil prices

European markets walk back in to higher oil prices

European markets reopen today with financial markets being rebooting by fresh liquidity. Yesterday saw the US dollar trade mixed against the G10 currencies, making the most ground against AUD and losing out to the Canadian dollar, with oil prices taking the market headlines. Lees Meer

Euro takes a dive on German Manufacturing Recession

Euro takes a dive on German Manufacturing Recession

The euro is under pressure again this morning after a dismal print for Germany’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. Lees Meer

Green shoots in Eurozone economy lend hand to EUR

Green shoots in Eurozone economy lend hand to EUR

The single currency weakened against USD yesterday, but is on the offensive again this morning and continues to trade towards the upper bound of last month’s trading range. Lees Meer

US barters for Chinese goodwill

US barters for Chinese goodwill

The US and China trade negotiations continue to proceed with some goodwill towards the Trump administration showing from the Chinese camp. The US may be unwilling to lift tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods Lees Meer

Trade tensions and global growth back in focus this week

Trade tensions and global growth back in focus this week

The UK economy has fared well thus far despite Brexit uncertainty tarnishing business investment, rendering economic data redundant in moving sterling. Lees Meer

Brexit follies and the masters of procrastination

Brexit follies and the masters of procrastination

The whole nation takes a sigh of relief as yet another no-deal exit is avoided and Parliament breaks up for over a week. Cross-party talks will continue in the background despite the MPs Easter holiday as the government tries to avoid an expensive, and potentially messy, European election. Lees Meer

Brussels gets flexible

Brussels gets flexible

Another 6-months is scheduled in the Brexit timetable with a review period in June. President Donald Tusk urges Brits to not waste this time in his speech last night while reiterating the Withdrawal Agreement was not up for renegotiation. Lees Meer

3-course meal of ECB, Fed and Brexit is on today’s menu

3-course meal of ECB, Fed and Brexit is on today’s menu

It’s that time again for another awkward dinner party with Theresa May as the guest speaker. At around 17:30 BST, the EU-27 leaders will hear May’s latest plans before asking her to leave. Lees Meer

Weaker Factory Orders may drive US to trade negotiation table

Weaker Factory Orders may drive US to trade negotiation table

Factory Orders were negative yesterday for the fourth time in five months at -0.5%, showing the US industrial sector may not be immune to the woes that plague the Eurozone’s and China’s manufacturing sector. Lees Meer

Dense data could breathe life into G10 FX this week

Dense data could breathe life into G10 FX this week

This week the data calendar is focused around Wednesday’s release of February’s GDP and production data. The UK economy is widely expected to halt its month-on-month growth in February as suggested by the latest batch of PMIs due to Brexit uncertainty taking its toll. Lees Meer

ECB Eurozone outlook not so bubbly

ECB Eurozone outlook not so bubbly

The European Central Bank Meeting Accounts that came out yesterday were dovish as can be, yet, as expectations for the Eurozone economy are currently near all-time lows, it didn’t move the needle much on euro crosses. Lees Meer

Another A50 extension likely

Another A50 extension likely

Sterling briefly jumped on the news, but with the economy showing signs of faltering due to Brexit uncertainty, little relief came for the pound. Lees Meer

Double-edged sword for Labour

Double-edged sword for Labour

Corbyn must proceed with caution as the consequences of his next action could be dramatic. Many political pundits have raised concerns over last night’s move by Theresa May as a precursor to a general election. Lees Meer

Chinese manufacturing data fuels risk rally

Chinese manufacturing data fuels risk rally

A strong positive surprise in China’s April manufacturing PMI yesterday morning set the tone for the session as investors appetite for risk rose once again. The rebound in the soft data saw China’s manufacturing sector expand for the first time this year, soothing fears over the global growth slowdown. Lees Meer

1011 days of Brexit – April fools!

1011 days of Brexit – April fools!

April fool’s day makes it difficult to filter reality and fiction in the media, especially when it comes to Brexit. But here’s what we know so far: April 12 is the new deadline, Parliament will have another series of indicative votes tonight and May will likely have another stab at getting her deal through this week. Lees Meer

Brexit day proves pivotal despite extension to April

Brexit day proves pivotal despite extension to April

What should have been Brexit day has now become a power play for May as she tries one last time to whip up some more Parliamentary fudge to help kick the can down the road. An EU deadline to pass a deal and trigger a further six-week extension to May 22 expires tonight. Lees Meer

Come on Arlene, poor old Mrs May

Come on Arlene, poor old Mrs May

Boris Johnson, Iain Duncan-Smith and Jacob Rees-Mogg all aired their support for the deal after May offered to step down should the UK leave with a deal in place at the next deadline. May’s job looks done as the beast that is Brexit takes another Prime Minister prematurely. Lees Meer

Did Friday mark the end of 2019’s EM rally?

Did Friday mark the end of 2019’s EM rally?

Developments in Turkey prior to Sunday’s local elections, LATAM’s potential rebound and Moody’s credit rating on Friday will set the tone for this week’s response. Lees Meer

Another long night in Westminster

Another long night in Westminster

At around 19:00 GMT today, MPs will begin to vote on a series of indicative votes to break the Brexit impasse after lawmakers take control of the Commons business paper, with the results expected at around 21:00 GMT. Lees Meer

33 MPs cause another historic government defeat

33 MPs cause another historic government defeat

33. That’s the number of Tory rebels that voted for the historic Letwin amendment, with 3 ministers having to resign due to defying the party whip. Lees Meer

Egregious Eurozone sentiments spook world markets

Egregious Eurozone sentiments spook world markets

The euro took the disastrous Purchasing Manufacturing data on the chin on Friday and fell as much as a full percent against the greenback, and even more against JPY and GBP. Lees Meer

Mo Brexit, Mo Problems

Mo Brexit, Mo Problems

Fortnight. No, not the hit game millennials flocked to play. It is how long the EU leaders gave May to avoid a hard Brexit next Friday. It was decided last night after a horrendously long meeting that the EU would extend the Brexit deadline until April 12. Lees Meer

Quelle Surprise by Powell and Co

Quelle Surprise by Powell and Co

Another dovish turn by the Federal Reserve last night sent the dollar plummeting across the board with the broad DXY index falling 0.66%. The revised forward guidance measure showed 11 out of 17 Fed officials are not planning on raising rates at all in 2019, down from the market's assumption of one 25 basis point hike this year. Lees Meer

EM Currencies Rally in Muted G10 Market

EM Currencies Rally in Muted G10 Market

Emerging Markets rallied against the US dollar as a whole yesterday as markets anticipate further dovish tones from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Lees Meer

Brexit may be wrapped up this week, but it looks unlikely

Brexit may be wrapped up this week, but it looks unlikely

Sterling gears up for yet another pivotal Brexit week. The next 5 days determine whether we leave the EU with a deal in place in the next month or whether a longer delay to Article 50 will be imposed. Lees Meer

Third Time Lucky For May

Third Time Lucky For May

If a deal is pushed through next week in a third meaningful vote, May will request a short extension to A50 such that the legal framework of her deal can be finalised. This would undoubtedly be the best case for sterling now as it awaits the signal to push back towards fair value. Lees Meer

Deadline day for May

Deadline day for May

Investors will be weighing up the likelihood of a deal being struck as Parliament battles in the House of Commons and Brexit noise increases. The pound is likely to be highly volatile today as the Brexit headlines come thick and fast prior to tonight’s vote at around 19:30 GMT. Lees Meer

Finally, some progress on Brexit?

Now don’t hold your breath, but there is a slim possibility Brexit could be wrapped up in the next few days. But who are we kidding? Not the market it seems, which remains adamant that this week’s indicative votes will lead to a minor extension of roughly 2 months in Article 50. Lees Meer

Dovish BoC paves way for today’s ECB

Sterling continues to gear up for a volatile session next week without any significant data releases this week. Market participants’ attention is firmly on the three major events, the first of which, the meaningful vote, took another blow overnight as scepticism on forthcoming concessions from the EU hit the daily newspapers. Lees Meer

Eurozone domestic demand may provide an olive branch for ECB doves tomorrow

The single currency couldn’t match the level of play from the Ajax vs Real Madrid game and ended up in the bottom half of the G10 currency pack, despite hopeful signs from the domestic demand side of the Eurozone economy. Both January Retail Sales and the February Final Services Purchasing Manager Index outstripped the forecasts, lending some tentative support to the thesis that consumers and domestic demand may take the ailing Eurozone economy by the hand. Lees Meer

CNY Shrugs off Growth Downgrade

GBP Sterling pared back some of its recent gains yesterday, especially against the US dollar. Brexit will once again be back in focus today as Attorney General Geoffrey Cox will head to Brussels with Brexit Secretary du jour Stephen Barclay in a last ditch attempt to gain further concessions on the Irish backstop. Members of […] Lees Meer

May returns to magic money tree to buy a Brexit deal

Sterling starts the week on the front foot after Theresa May nips to the money tree that bought her a coalition government in an attempt to buy a Brexit deal. The £1.6bn “stronger towns” fund looks designed to swing Labour MP’s from Brexit support towns to vote for the current deal in next week’s second meaningful vote. Lees Meer

Fed’s move of caution may look overly bold after resilient US Q4 GDP surprise

The GDP Price Index rebounded to a 1.7% quarterly, reversing the downward trend it had shown since the second quarter of the year. However, the real question may be whether this push will continue in the start of 2019, when the global slowdown and the longest-ever government shutdown might have filtered deeper into the economy. Meanwhile, the US dollar also received some support from Asian markets, where the stalled conversations between Donald Trump and North-Korean Kim Jong Un on denuclearisation, triggered some fears on Asian equities; a risk-off move that led to further haven flows into the dollar Lees Meer

May’s dismay and sterling’s joy as amendments pass Parliament

Last night’s amendments saw May’s promises to host votes on a no-deal scenario and an extension in Article 50, should her second meaningful vote attempt fail, become legally binding. Meanwhile, Jeremy Corbyn announced Labour’s official stance to back a referendum should the meaningful vote fail. Lees Meer

May retreats, but sterling doesn’t

Today, after Prime Ministerial questions at 12 p.m. the House of Commons vote on a whopping 12 backbench amendments, which include the original Cooper amendment that sought an extension in Article 50 and a fresh amendment by Spelman and Dromey which could give Parliament control a week after the meaningful vote deadline. This is what May tried to avoid, and with plenty of cross-party backing, could untangle much of May’s work yesterday. Lees Meer

No-deal shakes sterling

No-deal shakes sterling

Theresa May tries to maintain control of the Brexit process and face down the Cooper amendment, but threats of a no-deal bursts sterling’s bubble. Lees Meer

Talk about movin’ – both May and Corbyn forced to sterling positive concessions

This morning, sterling hit a fresh 4-week high after news broke that PM May will brief cabinet on an extension in Article 50 before addressing Parliament to outline the “progress” that has been made at mid-day. This could well see a vote in the House of Commons, should the next meaningful vote fail, to decide on an extension in Article 50 or a hard-Brexit scenario. Lees Meer

Stalling May gives sterling a break

The degree to which Theresa May is running down the clock would definitely be worth a yellow card in football now she most likely needs to seek a 2-month extension. Although, for now, the only consequence is a higher trading pound sterling. GBP is currently taking this news positively as it would diminish the chance of the UK crashing out of the European Union on the 29th of March. Lees Meer

Option markets turn optimistic on sterling prospects

Sterling continues to float in anticipation of the next Brexit headline. With little changes thus far, Prime Minister Theresa May has until Wednesday to realistically strike concessions on the Irish backstop before facing a possible revolt in Parliament. Maintaining the topic of revolts, this morning Jeremy Corbyn was told to back a second referendum over May’s deal or face further defectors to The Independent Group. Lees Meer

Fed rate hike binary – 0 or 1 in 2019.

Continued uncertainty over future interest rate hikes keeps being aired from Fed officials while balance sheet run-off looks set to end in 2019. Regardless, the market reaction seems fairly muted as investors have already had time to adjust their expectations towards further monetary policy accommodation. Lees Meer

Recent rumours keep lifting sterling higher and higher

Rumours of European Union concessions combined with building anticipation that the UK Parliament will take the necessary steps to prevent a hard Brexit from happening was enough to send sterling to multi-week highs against USD and EUR yesterday. Political editors of several UK newspapers postulated on Twitter yesterday that concessions of the EU on the Irish backstop order may be imminent, which could potentially make Theresa May’s Brexit deal palatable enough to cruise through Parliament at the next vote Lees Meer

Baby you can drive my car – off a cliff-edge Brexit it seems

Meanwhile, Honda announced it would shut down a major production facility in Swindon after Nissan declared earlier this month that Brexit uncertainty was one of the main reasons not to produce their next generation SUV in the UK. This is an indicator that some of the damage the Brexit uncertainty has done may not be easily reversed, which could limit the upside for a sterling rally in the case we eventually would see a Brexit deal. Lees Meer

Flock of ECB doves flying over throws a shadow on EUR

On Friday, the euro dipped to a fresh three-month low against the dollar on the back of strong US manufacturing data and European Central Bank dovish tones. Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau scared markets by stressing the significance of the European slowdown while comments from ECB´s Benoit Coeure increased expectations of further quantitative easing, should the economic weakness in the Eurozone not prove as temporary as initially asserted. Lees Meer

Call 911, its a state of Emergency.

A White House spokesperson announced that the US President will be signing the bipartisan agreement on immigration and border policies to avoid a second government shutdown on Friday, while also declaring a state of national emergency on the humanitarian crisis at the border. Such a move will allow Donald Trump to bypass Congress and secure more funds for the border wall than was previously allocated by the budget bill, setting the tones for further tensions in US politics. Lees Meer

That’s not me, say’s Trump, and it’s shutdown

Sterling fended off another negative data surprise yesterday after the Bank of England’s favoured inflation measure, the Consumer Price Index, fell below the 2% target for the first time in 48 months, but then conceded to a swathe of dollar strength in the afternoon. Lees Meer

It’s the final shutdown!

GBP Sterling strengthened against USD like most of its peers yesterday, but was towards the bottom of the group of G10 currencies. No headline data was released, but Bank of England Governor Mark Carney gave a speech where he discussed the increasingly murky outlook for the global economy, which he concluded was likely to continue […] Lees Meer

Euro got low, low, low, low

GBP Yesterday, sterling lost some ground against the dollar on a day where some economist emitted a sigh of relieve as macro data once again dominated over Brexit headlines. Growth data showed the UK economy shrank in December by 0.4% on a monthly basis, pointing to a preliminary quarterly slowdown of 0.2% from 0.3% expected […] Lees Meer

Whatever happens to trade, the dollar keeps on rolling, rolling, rolling.

Sterling gears up for another week of Brexit after broadly selling-off last week. The pound remains quite some distance from its 6-month high against the US dollar after weak Purchasing Managers Indices on Tuesday morning. The Bank of England’s net-hawkish meeting on Thursday proved insufficient in clawing back prior losses and the pound ultimately ended the week a percentage point lower against its American counterpart. Lees Meer

BoE slashes UK Growth forecast to lowest pace since the financial crisis

Sterling had a percentage point round trip yesterday with the Bank of England’s growth forecast causing much of the volatility. Headlines flashed across Bloomberg stating that the previous November estimate of growth in 2019, measured at 1.7%, was revised down in February’s release to 1.2% - this would be the lowest projected growth since the 2009 recession Lees Meer

Aber nein! German manufacturing sector continues to weigh on the euro

The barrage of negative German Manufacturing data seems endless with yesterday’s Factory Orders showing a contraction of 1.6% in December and this morning’s Industrial Production showing a 0.4% decline in the same month. The euro took it personally and declined for the third day in a row against USD yesterday and continues to be under pressure again this morning. Lees Meer

UK Services PMI point to economy grinding to a halt

GBP Sterling was among the worst performers in the G10 against the US Dollar yesterday, after weak Purchasing Managers’ Index data in the morning suggested the economy practically ground to a halt in January. Yesterday’s Services PMI came out at 50.1, barely above the 50 level that indicates overall output growth among the surveyed businesses. […] Lees Meer

UK consumers shrug off Brexit uncertainty for now

GBP Yesterday’s Markit/ CIPS Construction Survey showed that the uncertainty over Brexit dampened the construction sector’s recovery. The total activity index dropped to its lowest level since the March snowstorms last year, and the builders’ outlook isn’t much better. The manufacturing/ construction industries decisions in light of Brexit uncertainty have captured many of the headlines […] Lees Meer

Where now for Italy as a recession hits?

The single currency fought off a technical recession in Italy, downwardly revised growth forecasts from Germany, and the seemingly never-ending string of negative surprises in data last week to post a 0.43% gain against the dollar. Lees Meer

Euro weathers Italy’s technical recession fairly well

Yesterday the euro pared back some of the strength it had gained earlier, on the back of poor signs of economic performance released during the day. Preliminary GDP data indicates Italy had a 0.2% contraction in Q4, suggesting the country might have entered in a technical recession. Lees Meer

Powell opens a dovish door, but Fed doesn’t step through it – yet

GBP As the dust settled after the Tuesday evening Brexit amendment’s, sterling settled in the middle of the G10 currency pack as markets digested its implications. The adopted Brady amendment basically sends Theresa May back to the European Union to fiddle for more concession on the Irish backstop option, although European Union President Jean-Claude Juncker […] Lees Meer

Draghi is an optimistic dove

A new species has been discovered today in the Governing Council; the optimistic dove. European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi, once again displayed the variety of tones in his plume as he delivered a dovish message, but continuously guided the attention of the listener to the silver linings. Lees Meer

Tonight’s vote a barometer for parliamentary appetite for May’s deal

If May’s boisterous reception in the commons and tweets from Tory MPs are to be believed, May is more likely to survive tonight’s vote than not. This appears to be the market’s base case, with sterling rallying slightly this morning towards the 1.26 handle against USD despite the possibility of utter disaster in the event May loses and the UK heads for a no-deal outcome. Lees Meer

Preview ECB-rentebesluit

Risico’s blijven zich opstapelen in de Eurozone, wat ervoor zorgt dat de grote vraag voor de komende ECB bijeenkomst niet is of Mario Draghi terughoudend zal zijn, maar meer hoe terughoudend precies. Please accept statistics, marketing cookies to watch this video. Lees Meer

Kans extremere uitkomst Brexit groter

Nadat de stemming op de huidige Brexit deal van Theresa May op het laatste moment werd afgeblazen bevind het Brexit process zich nu in een patstelling. De kans op extreme uitkomsten zoals een no deal Brexit, of juist helemaal geen Brexit, wordt groter. Deze extra onzekerheid zet het pond onder druk. Please accept statistics, marketing […] Lees Meer

UK investors continue to hedge in light of greater uncertainty

UK investors continue to hedge in light of greater uncertainty

Following on from yesterday’s humiliating dodge, May now goes to Brussel’s to discuss going forward with Jean-Claude Juncker. Little has changed to our base case, despite the formal rejection of her draft Withdrawal Treaty not taking place. The $1.25 level has been realised, and May now goes to Brussel’s in an attempt to fudge contentious […] The post UK investors continue to hedge in light of greater uncertainty appeared first on Monex Europe. Lees Meer

OPEC stalls and loonie falls

Sterling remains on hold in anticipation of next week’s vote. Yesterday, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Phillip Hammond, reiterated to Parliament that the proposed Brexit deal cannot be renegotiated and stood in line with May’s “my deal or no deal” stance. This was largely expected by markets and saw them shrug off the same comments heard from the government over the last few weeks. Lees Meer

Markets look to Vienna for OPEC supply cut

Sterling continues to trade flat as the build-up to next week’s vote continues. Yesterday the government released the full legal advisory text from Attorney General Geoffrey Cox on the Brexit draft deal, with the main area of note that Northern Ireland would remain in the EU single market for goods and the EU customs regime, while Great Britain will be treated as a third country, should the backstop be enforced. Lees Meer

Sinterklaas brengt drukke dollarweek

De dollar staat een drukke week te wachten met op woensdag een getuigenis van Jerome Powell voor het Congres over de economische situatie in de VS. Ook zijn er de naweeën van de wapenstilstand in de handelsoorlog, de OPEC bijeenkomst op donderdag en de Non-Farms Payrolls op vrijdag. Ten slotte begint de spanning in het […] Lees Meer

Een twijfelende Draghi en Politieke onrusten in Europa

Valuta-specialist Bart Hordijk van Monex Europe over de Italiaanse begroting en de Brexit. Volgens de valuta-specialist ligt Rome op ramkoers met Brussel, is de grote vraag rond de Brexit: Will May stay?, en twijfelt ECB-president Mario Draghi voor het eerst over de inflatieverwachtingen in de eurozone op de middellange termijn. Please accept statistics, marketing cookies […] Lees Meer

Monex op de beurs: Update over de Brexit en het pond

Theresa May slaagde er op woensdagavond in om haar kabinet achter haar Brexit deal te scharen. De deal is echter nog verre van rond, met nog twee vervaarlijk uitziende beren op de weg; een mogelijke motie van wantrouwen tegen May en of de deal wel langs de Britse tweede kamer (House of Commons) komt. Mocht […] Lees Meer

EURUSD op laagste punt in 17 maanden.

De EURUSD staat op het laagste punt in 17 maanden. Martijn Weller legt uit wat de oorzaken hiervan zijn en blikt kort vooruit op de komende week. Please accept statistics, marketing cookies to watch this video. Lees Meer

Impact Amerikaanse Midterm Verkiezingen EURUSD

Optiemarkten laten zien dat marktparticipanten zich nog weinig indekken tegen een zwakkere dollar na de midterms, terwijl marktbewegingen uit het verleden juist tonen dat valuta flink kan bewegen rondom Amerikaanse verkiezingsuitslagen. Potentieel een moment om limietorders in te zetten om voordeel te halen uit deze verwachte volatiliteit. Please accept statistics, marketing cookies to watch this […] Lees Meer

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Ranko Berich

Ranko Berich

Hoofd marktanalyse

Ranko Berich geeft leiding aan het team van analisten van Monex Europe en levert actueel inzicht in en commentaar op ontwikkelingen in valutabewegingen en hun oorzaken.
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Simon Harvey

Simon Harvey

Valuta Marktspecialist

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Olivia.Alvarez

Olivia Alvarez

Valuta Marktspecialist

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