Nieuws en analyses

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May seeks Plan B after the catastrophic loss last week

After the historic defeat of her Withdrawal Bill last week Theresa May is once again set to pull a new rabbit out of her hat that can shake the Brexit process out of its deadlock as she is expected to announce her ‘Plan B’ from 14:30 GMT. May will seek to strike further concessions with the EU to clear up the contentious Irish backstop mechanism. Lees Meer

Dollar rallies as US-Sino relations ease

Yesterday saw another choppy session for GBPUSD as Theresa May stared down another question on her authority. After winning the vote of no confidence, brought up by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn after the historic defeat of the withdrawal deal on Tuesday night, the Prime Minister took to the steps of number 10 to slander the opposition leader for not planning to attend the cross-party talks. Lees Meer

Record defeat for May see’s pound rally

Sterling ended yesterday’s session flat on the whole after major swings following a hammer blow for Prime Minister Theresa May’s Withdrawal Bill. The pound fell half a percentage point in the immediate aftermath against the US dollar, but then promptly rallied as May offered cross-party concessions and the likelihood of the March deadline being extended increased Lees Meer

Judgement day for May

Sterling flirted with a half of a percentage point rally yesterday after ITV sources claimed that the Conservative party’s eurosceptic European Research Group would side with Mrs May in today’s meaningful vote. This was short-lived, however, after minister Steve Baker confirmed that the group- a prominent opponent of May- would indeed vote against her withdrawal bill. Lees Meer

USD remains near three month lows after longest government shutdown in history

The US dollar bounced back on Friday from three-month lows seen on the DXY index, after a week where several downside risks became more prominent. The end of last week was characterized by more dovish remarks of Federal Open Market Committee members, among which its chair, Jerome Powell. Lees Meer

Fed pause all but priced in

EUR reached a 12-week high against USD yesterday during the early hours of the Asian session, only to encounter a vicious reverse in faith later which eventually prompted the single currency to tumble towards the bottom end of the G10 currency ladder. Lees Meer

Dovish Fed squawks lends EURUSD wings.

The euro had a bright day yesterday, as the weakness of the dollar provided a percentage point of gains to the single currency, which sat at levels not seen since last October. The 11-week high on the cross came after dovish tones from US monetary authorities, despite domestic data still offers no support to the prospects of the Eurozone. Lees Meer

Dollar slumps as Trump’s speech does not signal swift end of US government shutdown

Soggy sentiment surrounded sterling yesterday as no progress appears to be made in the process of getting any Brexit deal through Parliament, as the ‘meaningful vote’ of next week draws ever more near. Despite that, this morning the Great British Pound has risen itself onto a stronger footing, after 20 Tories disobeyed the party’s whip and voted along with a Labour proposal that limits the powers of the Exchequer to cut or raise taxes in case of a ‘no deal’ Brexit scenario. Lees Meer

FED doves continue to fly

May continues to pin her hopes on squeezing a last-minute concession out of Brussels that will be enough to convince Parliament to back her deal. Lees Meer

Smashing US job report and dovish Powell strap greenback in rollercoaster.

Sterling spent most of the day Friday on the offensive after a positive headline on the Services Purchasing Manager Index for December at 51.2 set a positive mood. Unfortunately for sterling the entire picture is less upbeat, with the composite of the Services, Manufacturing and Construction PMI pointing towards a growth of merely 0.1% in December. Lees Meer

Trade wars may not be so easy to win after all – and that’s a good thing.

After taking a good old fashioned nose dive early morning during the Asian session yesterday, sterling not only pared its losses, but even managed to close above its opening level eventually. The Construction Purchasing Manager Index will be one of the last in line to claim credit for this as it came in virtually bang in line with expectations at a score of 52.8. A bounce back from the fall on Wednesday seems a more likely explanation, as there seemed to be no direct catalyst for this drop except for the Meaningful vote deadline drawing nearer with still no agreement in Parliament yet in sight. Today at 9:30 GMT arguably the UK’s most important data release for the week is scheduled with the Services PMI. Lees Meer

JPY jump sends warning shot to markets for 2019

Sterling has experienced one of the worst starts to year in years yesterday with losses across the board, which apart from paring against the dollar, are worsening against other currencies this morning. A pretty solid beat on the Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index with a score of 54.2 was to no avail for GBP, as Brexit deadlines drawing closer appear to dominate sentiment. Lees Meer

Government shutdown keeps USD pinned

The Canadian dollar had a relatively calm end to the year on Monday, though it was the worst performing G10 currency against the US dollar last quarter. Worsening risk appetite and plummeting crude oil prices were to blame, while domestic conditions in Canada seem reasonably strong for now and the Bank of Canada remains on a data-dependent hiking cycle. Lees Meer

Sterling enjoys absence of politicians and Monex Europe wishes you a splendid 2019

Politicians can take holidays more often, that is at least according to the pound sterling which was among the top gainers on Friday and continues to advance this morning as silence sovereignly reigns over Westminster. The only thing bubbling today will be the champagne tonight as little data comes out today for the UK. More fireworks can be expected later in the week with the Manufacturing, Construction and Services Purchasing Manager Indices coming out on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday respectively. Lees Meer

Dollar drops to one-week low amid US shutdown

Over the festive period, it has all but ground to a halt for sterling with a big Brexit sized elephant still in the room. With little filling the data calendar up until the new year, all eyes will be firmly fixated on Brexit headlines that will likely resume in the new year. Parliament doesn’t reconvene until the 7th of January, but markets will await political headlines before then. Lees Meer

Positive post-Christmas sentiment turns US markets green.

USD sat comfortably in the green zone yesterday on the back of a surge in stock markets. With the S&P and the Dow Jones indexes rallying by 5% and the Nasdaq having its largest one-day increase since 2009, Wall Street seems to be enjoying some belated Christmas cheer. Lees Meer

US equity markets in meltdown as Mnuchin meets with Bank CEOs

Sterling traded in a relatively tight range for most of last week, and remains calm this morning as global equity markets continue to flash red. There was little newsflow of relevance to sterling over the weekend, as the usual holiday lull in politics set in. The only data of note this week will be Friday’s High Street Lending figures at 09:30 GMT from UK Finance. Lees Meer

CREAM dolla dolla bill y’all – turmoil haunts greenback before Christmas

2.45 metres was the World Record set by Javier Sotomayor of Cuba in the men's high jump, something the loonie may begin to target if it doesn’t break out of its steep bearish channel. Lees Meer

Fed lowers dots and props up G10 gains this morning

Before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting yesterday, expectations on the viewpoints of the Fed were diverse, a situation that surprisingly hasn’t changed much after the meeting as markets are still trying to make up whether they saw a relatively hawkish, or a relatively dovish FOMC yesterday. Lees Meer

Draghi is an optimistic dove

A new species has been discovered today in the Governing Council; the optimistic dove. European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi, once again displayed the variety of tones in his plume as he delivered a dovish message, but continuously guided the attention of the listener to the silver linings. Lees Meer

Tonight’s vote a barometer for parliamentary appetite for May’s deal

If May’s boisterous reception in the commons and tweets from Tory MPs are to be believed, May is more likely to survive tonight’s vote than not. This appears to be the market’s base case, with sterling rallying slightly this morning towards the 1.26 handle against USD despite the possibility of utter disaster in the event May loses and the UK heads for a no-deal outcome. Lees Meer

Preview ECB-rentebesluit

Risico’s blijven zich opstapelen in de Eurozone, wat ervoor zorgt dat de grote vraag voor de komende ECB bijeenkomst niet is of Mario Draghi terughoudend zal zijn, maar meer hoe terughoudend precies. Please accept statistics, marketing cookies to watch this video. Lees Meer

Kans extremere uitkomst Brexit groter

Nadat de stemming op de huidige Brexit deal van Theresa May op het laatste moment werd afgeblazen bevind het Brexit process zich nu in een patstelling. De kans op extreme uitkomsten zoals een no deal Brexit, of juist helemaal geen Brexit, wordt groter. Deze extra onzekerheid zet het pond onder druk. Please accept statistics, marketing […] Lees Meer

UK investors continue to hedge in light of greater uncertainty

Following on from yesterday’s humiliating dodge, May now goes to Brussel’s to discuss going forward with Jean-Claude Juncker. Little has changed to our base case, despite the formal rejection of her draft Withdrawal Treaty not taking place. The $1.25 level has been realised, and May now goes to Brussel’s in an attempt to fudge contentious […] The post UK investors continue to hedge in light of greater uncertainty appeared first on Monex Europe. Lees Meer

OPEC stalls and loonie falls

Sterling remains on hold in anticipation of next week’s vote. Yesterday, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Phillip Hammond, reiterated to Parliament that the proposed Brexit deal cannot be renegotiated and stood in line with May’s “my deal or no deal” stance. This was largely expected by markets and saw them shrug off the same comments heard from the government over the last few weeks. Lees Meer

Markets look to Vienna for OPEC supply cut

Sterling continues to trade flat as the build-up to next week’s vote continues. Yesterday the government released the full legal advisory text from Attorney General Geoffrey Cox on the Brexit draft deal, with the main area of note that Northern Ireland would remain in the EU single market for goods and the EU customs regime, while Great Britain will be treated as a third country, should the backstop be enforced. Lees Meer

Sinterklaas brengt drukke dollarweek

De dollar staat een drukke week te wachten met op woensdag een getuigenis van Jerome Powell voor het Congres over de economische situatie in de VS. Ook zijn er de naweeën van de wapenstilstand in de handelsoorlog, de OPEC bijeenkomst op donderdag en de Non-Farms Payrolls op vrijdag. Ten slotte begint de spanning in het […] Lees Meer

Een twijfelende Draghi en Politieke onrusten in Europa

Valuta-specialist Bart Hordijk van Monex Europe over de Italiaanse begroting en de Brexit. Volgens de valuta-specialist ligt Rome op ramkoers met Brussel, is de grote vraag rond de Brexit: Will May stay?, en twijfelt ECB-president Mario Draghi voor het eerst over de inflatieverwachtingen in de eurozone op de middellange termijn. Please accept statistics, marketing cookies […] Lees Meer

Monex op de beurs: Update over de Brexit en het pond

Theresa May slaagde er op woensdagavond in om haar kabinet achter haar Brexit deal te scharen. De deal is echter nog verre van rond, met nog twee vervaarlijk uitziende beren op de weg; een mogelijke motie van wantrouwen tegen May en of de deal wel langs de Britse tweede kamer (House of Commons) komt. Mocht […] Lees Meer

EURUSD op laagste punt in 17 maanden.

De EURUSD staat op het laagste punt in 17 maanden. Martijn Weller legt uit wat de oorzaken hiervan zijn en blikt kort vooruit op de komende week. Please accept statistics, marketing cookies to watch this video. Lees Meer

Impact Amerikaanse Midterm Verkiezingen EURUSD

Optiemarkten laten zien dat marktparticipanten zich nog weinig indekken tegen een zwakkere dollar na de midterms, terwijl marktbewegingen uit het verleden juist tonen dat valuta flink kan bewegen rondom Amerikaanse verkiezingsuitslagen. Potentieel een moment om limietorders in te zetten om voordeel te halen uit deze verwachte volatiliteit. Please accept statistics, marketing cookies to watch this […] Lees Meer

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Ontvang elke ochtend een rapport over de nieuwste ontwikkelingen op de valutamarkten, met nieuws en analyses van ons team van gerenommeerde marktanalisten.

Ontmoet het team

Ranko Berich

Ranko Berich

Hoofd marktanalyse

Ranko Berich geeft leiding aan het team van analisten van Monex Europe en levert actueel inzicht in en commentaar op ontwikkelingen in valutabewegingen en hun oorzaken.

Bart Hordijk

Bart Hordijk

Valuta Marktspecialist


Simon Harvey

Simon Harvey

Valuta Marktspecialist