Nieuws en analyses

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Quelle Surprise by Powell and Co

Quelle Surprise by Powell and Co

Another dovish turn by the Federal Reserve last night sent the dollar plummeting across the board with the broad DXY index falling 0.66%. The revised forward guidance measure showed 11 out of 17 Fed officials are not planning on raising rates at all in 2019, down from the market's assumption of one 25 basis point hike this year. Lees Meer

Euro prospects capped by softer wage growth

Euro prospects capped by softer wage growth

EUR held the lines yesterday despite a softer Q4 wage growth figure, that may limit the prospects of strengthening consumer spending and rising core inflation. Lees Meer

UK labour market continues to shine despite the bleak Brexit backdrop

UK labour market continues to shine despite the bleak Brexit backdrop but may start to show signs of faltering. Lees Meer

EM Currencies Rally in Muted G10 Market

EM Currencies Rally in Muted G10 Market

Emerging Markets rallied against the US dollar as a whole yesterday as markets anticipate further dovish tones from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Lees Meer

Fed door het stof, maar nu nog niet

De Federale Reserve komt deze week bijeen voor een rentebesluit, waarbij de tekenen aan de oppervlakte laten zijn dat de recente duivige U-bocht van de Fed in januari gerechtvaardigd is. De loongroei en de importinflatie doen ons echter geloven dat de Federale Reserve wel eens kan worden gedwongen om op haar schreden terug te keren […] Lees Meer

Brexit may be wrapped up this week, but it looks unlikely

Brexit may be wrapped up this week, but it looks unlikely

Sterling gears up for yet another pivotal Brexit week. The next 5 days determine whether we leave the EU with a deal in place in the next month or whether a longer delay to Article 50 will be imposed. Lees Meer

Third Time Lucky For May

Third Time Lucky For May

If a deal is pushed through next week in a third meaningful vote, May will request a short extension to A50 such that the legal framework of her deal can be finalised. This would undoubtedly be the best case for sterling now as it awaits the signal to push back towards fair value. Lees Meer

Fresh highs for Sterling as no-deal “ruled out”

Fresh highs for Sterling as no-deal “ruled out”

The path of least resistance for sterling today continues to be higher as the chances of May’s deal passing or an extension increases, although caution is warranted, as there may be further twists in the tale. Lees Meer

Back to square one for May

Back to square one for May

Back to square one for both the pound and Brexit negotiations. Parliament today sees a vote on whether the UK exits the EU with no-deal in place or not on March 29th at 19:00 GMT. Prior to this vote, Philip Hammond, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, will give the UK’s Spring Statement at 12:30 GMT but has denied that this will be a fiscal event. Lees Meer

Brexit in stroomversnelling

Brexit lijkt in een stroomversnelling te zijn gekomen na concessies van de Europese Unie aan de vooravond van cruciale stemmingen deze week in het Britse parlement. Het lijkt op dit moment nog steeds onwaarschijnlijk dat Theresa May genoeg rebellen van de Conservatieve partij achter haar deal gaat weten te scharen. Echter, als er donderdag een […] Lees Meer

Deadline day for May

Deadline day for May

Investors will be weighing up the likelihood of a deal being struck as Parliament battles in the House of Commons and Brexit noise increases. The pound is likely to be highly volatile today as the Brexit headlines come thick and fast prior to tonight’s vote at around 19:30 GMT. Lees Meer

Finally, some progress on Brexit?

Now don’t hold your breath, but there is a slim possibility Brexit could be wrapped up in the next few days. But who are we kidding? Not the market it seems, which remains adamant that this week’s indicative votes will lead to a minor extension of roughly 2 months in Article 50. Lees Meer

When doves cry – a Mario Draghi story

The euro has managed to drag itself slightly higher from yesterday’s lows, but equity markets were not significantly buoyed by the TLTRO news, possibly due to the limited macro impact of the measures compared to the ECB’s asset purchase program. Lees Meer

Dovish BoC paves way for today’s ECB

Sterling continues to gear up for a volatile session next week without any significant data releases this week. Market participants’ attention is firmly on the three major events, the first of which, the meaningful vote, took another blow overnight as scepticism on forthcoming concessions from the EU hit the daily newspapers. Lees Meer

Eurozone domestic demand may provide an olive branch for ECB doves tomorrow

The single currency couldn’t match the level of play from the Ajax vs Real Madrid game and ended up in the bottom half of the G10 currency pack, despite hopeful signs from the domestic demand side of the Eurozone economy. Both January Retail Sales and the February Final Services Purchasing Manager Index outstripped the forecasts, lending some tentative support to the thesis that consumers and domestic demand may take the ailing Eurozone economy by the hand. Lees Meer

Eurozone mogelijk huilende derde bij handelsakkoord VS-China

Met name de export-gerichte maakindustrie en de Duitse economie hadden zwaar te lijden onder de oplaaiende handelsoorlog. Dit trok de eurozone economie naar beneden, wat ook woog op de koers van de euro. Nu er een handelsakkoord in het verschiet ligt tussen de VS en China lijkt euro sterkte onvermijdelijk, echter, er liggen nog wel […] Lees Meer

CNY Shrugs off Growth Downgrade

GBP Sterling pared back some of its recent gains yesterday, especially against the US dollar. Brexit will once again be back in focus today as Attorney General Geoffrey Cox will head to Brussels with Brexit Secretary du jour Stephen Barclay in a last ditch attempt to gain further concessions on the Irish backstop. Members of […] Lees Meer

May returns to magic money tree to buy a Brexit deal

Sterling starts the week on the front foot after Theresa May nips to the money tree that bought her a coalition government in an attempt to buy a Brexit deal. The £1.6bn “stronger towns” fund looks designed to swing Labour MP’s from Brexit support towns to vote for the current deal in next week’s second meaningful vote. Lees Meer

Fed’s move of caution may look overly bold after resilient US Q4 GDP surprise

The GDP Price Index rebounded to a 1.7% quarterly, reversing the downward trend it had shown since the second quarter of the year. However, the real question may be whether this push will continue in the start of 2019, when the global slowdown and the longest-ever government shutdown might have filtered deeper into the economy. Meanwhile, the US dollar also received some support from Asian markets, where the stalled conversations between Donald Trump and North-Korean Kim Jong Un on denuclearisation, triggered some fears on Asian equities; a risk-off move that led to further haven flows into the dollar Lees Meer

May’s dismay and sterling’s joy as amendments pass Parliament

Last night’s amendments saw May’s promises to host votes on a no-deal scenario and an extension in Article 50, should her second meaningful vote attempt fail, become legally binding. Meanwhile, Jeremy Corbyn announced Labour’s official stance to back a referendum should the meaningful vote fail. Lees Meer

May retreats, but sterling doesn’t

Today, after Prime Ministerial questions at 12 p.m. the House of Commons vote on a whopping 12 backbench amendments, which include the original Cooper amendment that sought an extension in Article 50 and a fresh amendment by Spelman and Dromey which could give Parliament control a week after the meaningful vote deadline. This is what May tried to avoid, and with plenty of cross-party backing, could untangle much of May’s work yesterday. Lees Meer

Hoop gloort voor economie Eurozone

Italië en Duitsland vertraagden sterk qua economische groei de afgelopen kwartalen, maar de groei in andere landen zoals Spanje, Frankrijk, Nederland, Portugal en Finland laat zien dat deze vertraging wellicht minder fundamenteel en Eurozone breed is dan eerder gedacht. Daarnaast biedt de koopkrachtsgroei in de Eurozone kansen voor de consumentenbestedingen om de groei aan te […] Lees Meer

No-deal shakes sterling

No-deal shakes sterling

Theresa May tries to maintain control of the Brexit process and face down the Cooper amendment, but threats of a no-deal bursts sterling’s bubble. Lees Meer

Talk about movin’ – both May and Corbyn forced to sterling positive concessions

This morning, sterling hit a fresh 4-week high after news broke that PM May will brief cabinet on an extension in Article 50 before addressing Parliament to outline the “progress” that has been made at mid-day. This could well see a vote in the House of Commons, should the next meaningful vote fail, to decide on an extension in Article 50 or a hard-Brexit scenario. Lees Meer

Stalling May gives sterling a break

The degree to which Theresa May is running down the clock would definitely be worth a yellow card in football now she most likely needs to seek a 2-month extension. Although, for now, the only consequence is a higher trading pound sterling. GBP is currently taking this news positively as it would diminish the chance of the UK crashing out of the European Union on the 29th of March. Lees Meer

Option markets turn optimistic on sterling prospects

Sterling continues to float in anticipation of the next Brexit headline. With little changes thus far, Prime Minister Theresa May has until Wednesday to realistically strike concessions on the Irish backstop before facing a possible revolt in Parliament. Maintaining the topic of revolts, this morning Jeremy Corbyn was told to back a second referendum over May’s deal or face further defectors to The Independent Group. Lees Meer

Fed rate hike binary – 0 or 1 in 2019.

Continued uncertainty over future interest rate hikes keeps being aired from Fed officials while balance sheet run-off looks set to end in 2019. Regardless, the market reaction seems fairly muted as investors have already had time to adjust their expectations towards further monetary policy accommodation. Lees Meer

Recent rumours keep lifting sterling higher and higher

Rumours of European Union concessions combined with building anticipation that the UK Parliament will take the necessary steps to prevent a hard Brexit from happening was enough to send sterling to multi-week highs against USD and EUR yesterday. Political editors of several UK newspapers postulated on Twitter yesterday that concessions of the EU on the Irish backstop order may be imminent, which could potentially make Theresa May’s Brexit deal palatable enough to cruise through Parliament at the next vote Lees Meer

Baby you can drive my car – off a cliff-edge Brexit it seems

Meanwhile, Honda announced it would shut down a major production facility in Swindon after Nissan declared earlier this month that Brexit uncertainty was one of the main reasons not to produce their next generation SUV in the UK. This is an indicator that some of the damage the Brexit uncertainty has done may not be easily reversed, which could limit the upside for a sterling rally in the case we eventually would see a Brexit deal. Lees Meer

Flock of ECB doves flying over throws a shadow on EUR

On Friday, the euro dipped to a fresh three-month low against the dollar on the back of strong US manufacturing data and European Central Bank dovish tones. Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau scared markets by stressing the significance of the European slowdown while comments from ECB´s Benoit Coeure increased expectations of further quantitative easing, should the economic weakness in the Eurozone not prove as temporary as initially asserted. Lees Meer

Call 911, its a state of Emergency.

A White House spokesperson announced that the US President will be signing the bipartisan agreement on immigration and border policies to avoid a second government shutdown on Friday, while also declaring a state of national emergency on the humanitarian crisis at the border. Such a move will allow Donald Trump to bypass Congress and secure more funds for the border wall than was previously allocated by the budget bill, setting the tones for further tensions in US politics. Lees Meer

That’s not me, say’s Trump, and it’s shutdown

Sterling fended off another negative data surprise yesterday after the Bank of England’s favoured inflation measure, the Consumer Price Index, fell below the 2% target for the first time in 48 months, but then conceded to a swathe of dollar strength in the afternoon. Lees Meer

It’s the final shutdown!

GBP Sterling strengthened against USD like most of its peers yesterday, but was towards the bottom of the group of G10 currencies. No headline data was released, but Bank of England Governor Mark Carney gave a speech where he discussed the increasingly murky outlook for the global economy, which he concluded was likely to continue […] Lees Meer

Euro got low, low, low, low

GBP Yesterday, sterling lost some ground against the dollar on a day where some economist emitted a sigh of relieve as macro data once again dominated over Brexit headlines. Growth data showed the UK economy shrank in December by 0.4% on a monthly basis, pointing to a preliminary quarterly slowdown of 0.2% from 0.3% expected […] Lees Meer

Whatever happens to trade, the dollar keeps on rolling, rolling, rolling.

Sterling gears up for another week of Brexit after broadly selling-off last week. The pound remains quite some distance from its 6-month high against the US dollar after weak Purchasing Managers Indices on Tuesday morning. The Bank of England’s net-hawkish meeting on Thursday proved insufficient in clawing back prior losses and the pound ultimately ended the week a percentage point lower against its American counterpart. Lees Meer

BoE slashes UK Growth forecast to lowest pace since the financial crisis

Sterling had a percentage point round trip yesterday with the Bank of England’s growth forecast causing much of the volatility. Headlines flashed across Bloomberg stating that the previous November estimate of growth in 2019, measured at 1.7%, was revised down in February’s release to 1.2% - this would be the lowest projected growth since the 2009 recession Lees Meer

Aber nein! German manufacturing sector continues to weigh on the euro

The barrage of negative German Manufacturing data seems endless with yesterday’s Factory Orders showing a contraction of 1.6% in December and this morning’s Industrial Production showing a 0.4% decline in the same month. The euro took it personally and declined for the third day in a row against USD yesterday and continues to be under pressure again this morning. Lees Meer

UK Services PMI point to economy grinding to a halt

GBP Sterling was among the worst performers in the G10 against the US Dollar yesterday, after weak Purchasing Managers’ Index data in the morning suggested the economy practically ground to a halt in January. Yesterday’s Services PMI came out at 50.1, barely above the 50 level that indicates overall output growth among the surveyed businesses. […] Lees Meer

Bank of England unlikely to budge, but room for a hawkish meeting

Bank of England unlikely to budge, but room for a hawkish meeting

Thursday’s Bank of England meeting will likely see the central bank remain in a bit of a Brexit bind, but clarity over the recent downturn in economic data and the future of inflation could prove net hawkish for the market. Lees Meer

UK consumers shrug off Brexit uncertainty for now

GBP Yesterday’s Markit/ CIPS Construction Survey showed that the uncertainty over Brexit dampened the construction sector’s recovery. The total activity index dropped to its lowest level since the March snowstorms last year, and the builders’ outlook isn’t much better. The manufacturing/ construction industries decisions in light of Brexit uncertainty have captured many of the headlines […] Lees Meer

Where now for Italy as a recession hits?

The single currency fought off a technical recession in Italy, downwardly revised growth forecasts from Germany, and the seemingly never-ending string of negative surprises in data last week to post a 0.43% gain against the dollar. Lees Meer

Euro weathers Italy’s technical recession fairly well

Yesterday the euro pared back some of the strength it had gained earlier, on the back of poor signs of economic performance released during the day. Preliminary GDP data indicates Italy had a 0.2% contraction in Q4, suggesting the country might have entered in a technical recession. Lees Meer

Powell opens a dovish door, but Fed doesn’t step through it – yet

GBP As the dust settled after the Tuesday evening Brexit amendment’s, sterling settled in the middle of the G10 currency pack as markets digested its implications. The adopted Brady amendment basically sends Theresa May back to the European Union to fiddle for more concession on the Irish backstop option, although European Union President Jean-Claude Juncker […] Lees Meer

Draghi is an optimistic dove

A new species has been discovered today in the Governing Council; the optimistic dove. European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi, once again displayed the variety of tones in his plume as he delivered a dovish message, but continuously guided the attention of the listener to the silver linings. Lees Meer

Tonight’s vote a barometer for parliamentary appetite for May’s deal

If May’s boisterous reception in the commons and tweets from Tory MPs are to be believed, May is more likely to survive tonight’s vote than not. This appears to be the market’s base case, with sterling rallying slightly this morning towards the 1.26 handle against USD despite the possibility of utter disaster in the event May loses and the UK heads for a no-deal outcome. Lees Meer

Preview ECB-rentebesluit

Risico’s blijven zich opstapelen in de Eurozone, wat ervoor zorgt dat de grote vraag voor de komende ECB bijeenkomst niet is of Mario Draghi terughoudend zal zijn, maar meer hoe terughoudend precies. Please accept statistics, marketing cookies to watch this video. Lees Meer

Kans extremere uitkomst Brexit groter

Nadat de stemming op de huidige Brexit deal van Theresa May op het laatste moment werd afgeblazen bevind het Brexit process zich nu in een patstelling. De kans op extreme uitkomsten zoals een no deal Brexit, of juist helemaal geen Brexit, wordt groter. Deze extra onzekerheid zet het pond onder druk. Please accept statistics, marketing […] Lees Meer

UK investors continue to hedge in light of greater uncertainty

UK investors continue to hedge in light of greater uncertainty

Following on from yesterday’s humiliating dodge, May now goes to Brussel’s to discuss going forward with Jean-Claude Juncker. Little has changed to our base case, despite the formal rejection of her draft Withdrawal Treaty not taking place. The $1.25 level has been realised, and May now goes to Brussel’s in an attempt to fudge contentious […] The post UK investors continue to hedge in light of greater uncertainty appeared first on Monex Europe. Lees Meer

OPEC stalls and loonie falls

Sterling remains on hold in anticipation of next week’s vote. Yesterday, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Phillip Hammond, reiterated to Parliament that the proposed Brexit deal cannot be renegotiated and stood in line with May’s “my deal or no deal” stance. This was largely expected by markets and saw them shrug off the same comments heard from the government over the last few weeks. Lees Meer

Markets look to Vienna for OPEC supply cut

Sterling continues to trade flat as the build-up to next week’s vote continues. Yesterday the government released the full legal advisory text from Attorney General Geoffrey Cox on the Brexit draft deal, with the main area of note that Northern Ireland would remain in the EU single market for goods and the EU customs regime, while Great Britain will be treated as a third country, should the backstop be enforced. Lees Meer

Sinterklaas brengt drukke dollarweek

De dollar staat een drukke week te wachten met op woensdag een getuigenis van Jerome Powell voor het Congres over de economische situatie in de VS. Ook zijn er de naweeën van de wapenstilstand in de handelsoorlog, de OPEC bijeenkomst op donderdag en de Non-Farms Payrolls op vrijdag. Ten slotte begint de spanning in het […] Lees Meer

Een twijfelende Draghi en Politieke onrusten in Europa

Valuta-specialist Bart Hordijk van Monex Europe over de Italiaanse begroting en de Brexit. Volgens de valuta-specialist ligt Rome op ramkoers met Brussel, is de grote vraag rond de Brexit: Will May stay?, en twijfelt ECB-president Mario Draghi voor het eerst over de inflatieverwachtingen in de eurozone op de middellange termijn. Please accept statistics, marketing cookies […] Lees Meer

Monex op de beurs: Update over de Brexit en het pond

Theresa May slaagde er op woensdagavond in om haar kabinet achter haar Brexit deal te scharen. De deal is echter nog verre van rond, met nog twee vervaarlijk uitziende beren op de weg; een mogelijke motie van wantrouwen tegen May en of de deal wel langs de Britse tweede kamer (House of Commons) komt. Mocht […] Lees Meer

EURUSD op laagste punt in 17 maanden.

De EURUSD staat op het laagste punt in 17 maanden. Martijn Weller legt uit wat de oorzaken hiervan zijn en blikt kort vooruit op de komende week. Please accept statistics, marketing cookies to watch this video. Lees Meer

Impact Amerikaanse Midterm Verkiezingen EURUSD

Optiemarkten laten zien dat marktparticipanten zich nog weinig indekken tegen een zwakkere dollar na de midterms, terwijl marktbewegingen uit het verleden juist tonen dat valuta flink kan bewegen rondom Amerikaanse verkiezingsuitslagen. Potentieel een moment om limietorders in te zetten om voordeel te halen uit deze verwachte volatiliteit. Please accept statistics, marketing cookies to watch this […] Lees Meer

Blijf op de hoogte van bewegingen op de valutamarkten

Ontvang elke ochtend een rapport over de nieuwste ontwikkelingen op de valutamarkten, met nieuws en analyses van ons team van gerenommeerde marktanalisten.

Ontmoet het team

Ranko Berich

Ranko Berich

Hoofd marktanalyse

Ranko Berich geeft leiding aan het team van analisten van Monex Europe en levert actueel inzicht in en commentaar op ontwikkelingen in valutabewegingen en hun oorzaken.

Bart Hordijk

Bart Hordijk

Valuta Marktspecialist


Simon Harvey

Simon Harvey

Valuta Marktspecialist