News & Analysis

FX markets were at the mercy of Russian-Ukrainian peace talks and rising US rates this week. Front-end Treasury yields continued to surge, causing a brief inversion in the US yield curve and sparking conversations around a possible recession, although we don’t expect the current dynamics to be reflective of an incoming recession. Meanwhile, European inflation added to central banks’ headaches, with German CPI printing at 7.3% YoY while Polish prices grew by 10.9% YoY, while Canadian GDP confirmed that the Bank of Canada will embark on a larger rate in April. On Friday, payrolls data from the US showed a net employment increase of 431k. Looking ahead to next week, Russia-Ukraine headlines will continue to dominate FX markets along with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy decision.

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Authors: 
Simon Harvey, Head of FX Analysis
Ima Sammani, FX Market Analyst
Jay Zhao-Murray, FX Market Analyst

 

 

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