Week ahead: Don’t discount the dollar just yet

The past week hasn’t been plain sailing for FX traders. While markets have recently become less sensitive to developments in the Russia-Ukraine war, the past week was testament to the fact that complacency can’t be allowed to set in. That being said, the performance of G10 currencies over the course of the week is telling: the dollar broadly weakened against commodity currencies like AUD, NOK, and CAD along with the regional safe haven CHF, while it strengthened against low yielders EUR and JPY. This bifurcation in the dollar is likely to continue next week, with further USD strength against EUR and JPY likely to keep the DXY index elevated. However, broader dollar gains will need a strong US jobs report on Friday, especially as the rally in the US 2-year stalls around the 2.2% mark.

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Authors: 

Simon Harvey, Head of FX Analysis

Ima Sammani, FX Market Analyst

Jay Zhao-Murray, FX Market Analyst

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