US non-farm payrolls all but seals the deal for hikes in 2015

6th November 2015 By: Ranko Berich

US Non-Farm Payrolls Report – 06/11/15

It’s usually wishful thinking to draw conclusions about monetary policy based on one data release, but this report really is a game-changer. Today’s non-farms data completes the picture of a tightening labour market and all but seals the deal for rate hikes in 2015.

Hawks within the FOMC will be delighted with this report, providing them with exactly what they have been looking for: strong job creation and average earnings growing at their fastest year-on-year rate since 2009. When you combine this with the fact that initial jobless claims are also near multi-year lows and job openings are soaring, a picture emerges of a tightening labour market.

The spotlight is now firmly on December’s Fed meeting. The FOMC’s cautious hawks have received all they could wish for from today’s report. However, if they find another excuse to delay rate hikes in December, they will face a loss of credibility and outright ridicule from some corners of the market.