In our previous PLN outlook, we argued that the National Bank of Poland would prevent the Polish zloty from gaining too much strength by putting FX intervention on the market’s radar after the bank intervened in currency markets in December when EURPLN was trading around the 4.5 level. While we believe this still holds until the recovery phase is well underway, a recent weakening of the zloty after the Covid-19 wave hit a peak in March reduced the need for the NBP to intervene. Our view on PLN remains bullish for the remainder of the year, however, we have adjusted our forecasts since the last outlook to reflect the recent divergence in central bank policies in the CEE region and Poland’s recovery from the third Covid-19 peak.
Read our latest PLN update in full here:
Author: Ima Sammani, FX Market Analyst
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