News & Analysis

The anticipated US dollar downturn materialised over the course of April, with the greenback sustaining losses across the board. This was a byproduct of the Federal Reserve anchoring expectations in the March meeting along with positive vaccine developments in other major DM economies which took the shine off the US economic outperformance. Looking ahead, we expect the dollar downturn to continue over the course of Q2, although we argue that most major catalysts over the next month have now been baked into current pricing, meaning a stabilisation in the US dollar could occur in the near-term. Currencies like JPY and ZAR may buck the general trend for idiosyncratic reasons, however.

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