The dollar defied our expectations in June after the Federal Reserve surprised with a hawkish outlook on the US economy, signalling two rate hikes as early as 2023. We have adjusted our July forecasts to account for the more sensitive Fed reaction function, but broadly we expect the trend of mild dollar depreciation to continue, albeit from a higher base than in June. However, we have flagged currencies such as CNY, JPY and EUR as more sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s new outlook on the US economy and have therefore adjusted their forecast paths more aggressively against the dollar.
You can now read Monex Europe’s latest FX Forecasts report in full by clicking the download link below.
Simon Harvey, Senior FX Market Analyst
Olivia Alvarez, FX Market Analyst
Ima Sammani, FX Market Analyst
This information has been prepared by Monex Europe Limited, an execution-only service provider. The material is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is, or should be considered to be, financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by Monex Europe Limited or the author that any particular transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.