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Smashing US job report and dovish Powell strap greenback in rollercoaster

Sterling spent most of the day Friday on the offensive after a positive headline on the Services Purchasing Manager Index for December at 51.2 set a positive mood. Unfortunately for sterling the entire picture is less upbeat, with the composite of the Services, Manufacturing and Construction PMI pointing towards a growth of merely 0.1% in December.

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Trade wars may not be so easy to win after all – and that’s a good thing.

After taking a good old fashioned nose dive early morning during the Asian session yesterday, sterling not only pared its losses, but even managed to close above its opening level eventually. The Construction Purchasing Manager Index will be one of the last in line to claim credit for this as it came in virtually bang in line with expectations at a score of 52.8.

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JPY jump sends warning shot to markets for 2019

Sterling has experienced one of the worst starts to year in years yesterday with losses across the board, which apart from paring against the dollar, are worsening against other currencies this morning. A pretty solid beat on the Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index with a score of 54.2 was to no avail for GBP, as Brexit deadlines drawing closer appear to dominate sentiment.

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Government shutdown keeps USD pinned

The Canadian dollar had a relatively calm end to the year on Monday, though it was the worst performing G10 currency against the US dollar last quarter. Worsening risk appetite and plummeting crude oil prices were to blame, while domestic conditions in Canada seem reasonably strong for now and the Bank of Canada remains on a data-dependent hiking cycle.

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Sterling enjoys absence of politicians and Monex Europe wishes you a splendid 2019

Politicians can take holidays more often, that is at least according to the pound sterling which was among the top gainers on Friday and continues to advance this morning as silence sovereignly reigns over Westminster. The only thing bubbling today will be the champagne tonight as little data comes out today for the UK. More fireworks can be expected later in the week with the Manufacturing, Construction and Services Purchasing Manager Indices coming out on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday respectively.

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Dollar drops to one-week low amid US shutdown

Over the festive period, it has all but ground to a halt for sterling with a big Brexit sized elephant still in the room. With little filling the data calendar up until the new year, all eyes will be firmly fixated on Brexit headlines that will likely resume in the new year. Parliament doesn’t reconvene until the 7th of January, but markets will await political headlines before then.

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Positive post-Christmas sentiment turns US markets green

USD sat comfortably in the green zone yesterday on the back of a surge in stock markets. With the S&P and the Dow Jones indexes rallying by 5% and the Nasdaq having its largest one-day increase since 2009, Wall Street seems to be enjoying some belated Christmas cheer.

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US equity markets in meltdown as Mnuchin meets with Bank CEOs

Sterling traded in a relatively tight range for most of last week, and remains calm this morning as global equity markets continue to flash red. There was little newsflow of relevance to sterling over the weekend, as the usual holiday lull in politics set in. The only data of note this week will be Friday’s High Street Lending figures at 09:30 GMT from UK Finance.

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Fed lowers dots and props up G10 gains this morning

Before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting yesterday, expectations on the viewpoints of the Fed were diverse, a situation that surprisingly hasn’t changed much after the meeting as markets are still trying to make up whether they saw a relatively hawkish, or a relatively dovish FOMC yesterday. Markets were positioned for a very dovish Fed, but as the Rate Statement was more upbeat than expected, USD rallied, although it came under pressure again this morning.

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Meet the team

Ranko Berich

Ranko Berich

Head of Market Analysis

Ranko Berich heads up Monex Europe’s team of analysts, providing timely insight and commentary on developments in currency movements and their drivers.
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Simon Harvey

Simon Harvey

FX Market Analyst

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Bart Hordijk

Bart Hordijk

FX Market Analyst

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