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Brussels fudge for breakfast

The Brussels fudge that May and Juncker have served up this morning has gone down a treat for sterling. The pound is trading up against almost all major partners, and has reached a six month high against the euro. This morning’s deal looks like a classic eurozone can kicking exercise. It’s now clear that Britain […]

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Morning Report: 8 December 2017

GBP Sterling enjoyed a night to remember after a breakthrough in the first stage of the Brexit talks helped the British pound to rally from yesterday’s miasma. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has stated he will tell the European leaders at the European Council meeting next week that “sufficient progress” has been made for the […]

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Morning Report: 6 December 2017

GBP Sterling has continued to sell off over the past twenty four hours, being weighed down by continued Brexit uncertainty. Theresa May’s Government scrambled to recover after Monday’s scuppering of a potential deal on the Irish border by the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party, with Brexit Minister David Davis clarifying in Parliament that the phrase “regulatory alignment”, […]

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Morning Report: 5 December 2017

GBP Sterling has once again had an eventful 24 hours, as Brexit negotiations hit yet another snag. The pound rallied powerfully throughout the first half of the day, with various reports indicating that UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s lunch with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker would result in the announcement of a provisional deal being […]

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Morning Report: 4 December 2017

GBP Sterling pared its gains from earlier in the week on Friday, and has not shown any signs of regaining momentum this morning. Depending on which headline you’re reading, Theresa May is either on the verge of striking a deal on the Irish border issue, or has failed altogether. The truth appears to be somewhere […]

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Morning Report: 1 December 2017

GBP Sterling had another good day yesterday, extending earlier gains which were driven by overnight political news later in the afternoon and evening. The only major data release was the Nationwide House Price Index, which rose 0.1% in November. No new material news was added to the week’s political developments, which have given sterling a […]

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Morning Report: 30 November 2017

GBP Sterling hit a two month high against USD overnight, as good news on the political front continued to break. After Monday’s reports that a financial settlement had effectively been reached in Brexit talks, The Times reported overnight that a “negotiator” had said a breakthrough on the Northern Ireland border issue was developing. The border […]

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Morning Report: 29 November 2017

GBP Sterling was trading down yesterday, before news emerged in the evening that Britain and the EU have reached a preliminary agreement on the Brexit divorce bill, previously a sticking point in negotiations. The news, if confirmed, would represent a significant milestone in Brexit negotiations, which could then proceed to substantive matters of trade and a […]

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Morning Report: 28 November 2017

GBP Aside from a brief patch of volatility, this morning’s Financial Stability Review and Bank Stress Test results from the Bank of England have passed without incident for sterling. The seven largest lenders tested in the exercise passed the stress test, despite the BoE modelling a doomsday scenario where the domestic economy contracts 4%, global […]

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Morning Report: 27 November 2017

GBP Sterling has shrugged off the weekend’s headlines about ongoing Brexit negotiations to trade broadly flat vs USD compared to Friday afternoon, while avoiding further losses against the euro also. Politics will remain in focus this week, as Theresa May attempts to find a solution to the Northern Ireland border issue ahead of a crucial […]

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Morning Report: 24 November 2017

GBP Sterling’s seven day winning streak against the US dollar finally came to an end yesterday, as GBPUSD pared its recent advances back slightly. Yesterday’s data included an unrevised 04% reading for Gross Domestic Product growth in the 3rd quarter, and growth of 0.2% and 0.4% respectively in Business Investment and the Index of Services, […]

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Morning Report: 23 November 2017

GBP Yesterday marked seven consecutive sessions of sterling appreciation against USD, despite the Autumn Budget delivered by Chancellor Phillip Hammond featuring large downgrades to the official growth forecast. Phillip Hammond was dealt an exceptionally poor hand by the OBR, which downgraded its growth forecasts out to 2022 significantly. However, markets responded positively to the fact […]

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Morning Report: 22 November 2017

GBP Sterling traded sideways yesterday, ahead of today’s Autumn budget statement from Chancellor Phillip Hammond. Yesterday’s Industrial Order Expectations index from the Confederation of British Industry showed order books at their strongest for almost 30 years, as sterling’s weakness over the past year has its expected effect on the competitiveness of UK goods. Members of […]

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Morning Report: 21 November 2017

GBP The week got off to a slow start yesterday, with subdued volatility on many major fx pairs. Sterling maintained its momentum against USD and EUR, shrugging off any domestic political headlines. The Bank of England’s Dave Ramsden spoke in London, saying that Brexit was reinforcing the low growth in productivity seen in recent years. […]

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Morning Report: 20 November 2017

GBP Sterling trended up against the US dollar last week, and has opened this week in a similar fashion, while also performing well against the euro. The weekend’s political developments have seen the prospect of an increased offer for “divorce” payments to the European Union become likely, as Theresa May seeks to break a deadlock in […]

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Morning Report: 17 November 2017

GBP Sterling was relatively stable yesterday, picking up a handful of basis points against USD and EUR, with its momentum continuing this morning. October’s retail sales report showed that year on year growth in retail sales plummeted to its lowest level since 2013, but this was partly influenced by a particularly strong burst of growth […]

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Morning Report: 16 November 2017

GBP Sterling was making gradual inroads against the USD during the morning, only to see all of its gains evaporate after the dollar found its feet at the start of the afternoon. Against the euro, the day was lived in reverse; a morning with sterling weakness was later compensated during the afternoon. This morning brought […]

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Morning Report: 15 November 2017

GBP Dollar weakness allowed GBPUSD to rally yesterday, despite a soft inflation print and ongoing political farce in the UK, but the pound was less fortunate against the euro, where it fell to fresh lows for the month yesterday and again this morning. Yesterday’s parliamentary shenanigans included prominent Conservative MPs defying the Government’s efforts to […]

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Morning Report: 14 November 2017

GBP Political turmoil finally began to weigh on sterling yesterday, leading to losses against EUR and USD. The UK’s chief Brexit negotiator David Davis spoke in the House of Commons yesterday and tried to appeal to Tory backbenchers when he told the parliament will be allowed to vote on the final Brexit deal coming out […]

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Morning Report: 13 November 2017

GBP After a solid performance on Friday, sterling has gotten out of the wrong side of the bed this morning, erasing almost all of last week’s gains versus the US dollar. UK politics was once again thrown into upheaval as reports emerged yesterday that the amount of Conservative party MPs willing to sign a vote […]

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Ranko Berich

Ranko Berich

Ranko Berich is Head of Market Analysis at Monex Europe. He is a respected macroeconomic commentator, combining incisive market insight with a deep understanding of global economic and political events.

Ranko leads our team of analysts, providing commentary and insight on the markets as news breaks.

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