Dollar bulls remain in the driving seat

Dollar bulls remain in the driving seat

USD The dollar rose to a five month high last week, notching its best weekly performance since September 2022, as US CPI raised the prospect that three Fed rate cuts this year may now be a ceiling as opposed to a baseline. This contrasted heavily with dovish...
A break in the ranges

A break in the ranges

This week saw three of our key calls begin to play out in FX markets. First, that strong US data would eventually translate into more hawkish Fed expectations, and as a result, dollar strength. Second, that other central banks would begin signalling faster easing...
MAS unchanged stance to put a ceiling on USDSGD

MAS unchanged stance to put a ceiling on USDSGD

The Monetary Authority of Singapore decided to keep the slope of the S$NEER policy band unchanged (~2% per annum), while also maintaining the width and the midpoint of the band in the second quarter. This outcome was widely expected given core inflation remains...
The dollar holds on to post CPI gains

The dollar holds on to post CPI gains

USD Wednesday’s excitement gave way to a quieter Thursday session for the dollar. The DXY index stabilised in a new, higher, post CPI range, with yesterday’s PPI figures doing little to disrupt this dynamic. Whilst final demand readings modestly undershot...
The ECB not recommitting, but sets up a cut in June

The ECB not recommitting, but sets up a cut in June

The ECB has kept rates unchanged once again, maintaining the deposit rate at 4.00% in line with widespread consensus and our own pre-announcement call. The focus of today’s meeting wasn’t on the decision for rates, but the ECB’s characterisation of the economic data...
US CPI puts a rocket under the dollar

US CPI puts a rocket under the dollar

USD US inflation wreaked havoc in markets yesterday. Not only did headline and core inflation land 0.1pp above expectations at 0.4% MoM respectively, but with continued disinflation in shelter components, the Fed’s supercore measure also spiked to its highest level...