Forward Looking

Brexit primer: Market analysis of potential EU referendum outcomes

Sterling has surged to its highest level against USD since last year, amid a broad USD selloff and increasing market optimism that the outcome of the referendum will be a vote to Remain. How well founded this optimism is remains to be seen. Although, the most recent polls have given a slight edge to Remain, […]

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Markets poised for US week of reckoning

Expectations for the Fed coming into December could hardly be higher than they are right now. From Federal Funds Futures to the dollar, markets are increasingly treating rate hikes like a done deal. As the FOMC’s most vocal dove, Lael Brainard’s speech on Tuesday will be essential for judging if current expectations of hikes are […]

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FOMC meeting minutes have potential to upset December hike

FOMC Meeting Minutes – 18/11/15 This week’s Fed minutes will be one of the last major FOMC events before December’s all-important meeting, meaning they will be gone through with a fine tooth comb for any hints about their intentions for next month. Recent FOMC speakers have revealed a divide exists between a majority of those […]

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Labour market data to shed light on state of UK economy

UK Labour Market data – 10/11/15 Tuesday’s labour market data is all the more significant thanks to the importance that wage growth holds over the Bank of England’s decision making. As the Bank made clear last week, the outlook for wages is ambiguous to say the least, so hard data will be crucial for judging […]

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Bank of England finds its hands tied for next meeting

BoE Monetary Policy Summary – 05/11/15 Thursday’s Bank of England meeting is an opportunity for the MPC to take stock of a slowing economy, which is still showing few signs of inflation. GDP growth was a reasonable 0.5% in the third quarter, but this won’t be enough to inspire confidence in the strength of the […]

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Potential for surprise in Thursday’s FOMC meeting

FOMC Meeting – 29/10/15 The biggest thing to look out for in Thursday’s FOMC meeting will be any hints of how the Fed will deal with the substantial difference of opinions emerging between hawks and doves. For the majority of this year, the message from the Fed has been that slack in the economy is […]

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Market expectations and Fed forecasts: Something’s got to give

USD weakness has become the most noticeable feature of FX markets this week, losing ground to both GBP and EUR, while taking an absolute beating against CAD, AUD, and NZD. Rapidly falling expectations of rate hikes is one of the key drivers of dollar weakness, with the market pricing only a 39 per cent probability […]

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MPC meeting to signpost future policy

BoE MPC Meeting – 08/10/15 The Bank of England will grapple with a fiendishly complex set of issues at Thursday’s MPC meeting. Mark Carney recently asked if central banks were still ‘masters of their domestic monetary destinies’, or if they had become slaves to global factors. This question has only become more pressing in recent […]

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Markets poised for Fed action in tomorrow’s FOMC

FOMC Statement – 17/09/15 Pundits and economists might still be unsure as to whether the Fed should hike rates in September, but markets are clearly taking the possibility of rate action and ensuing volatility seriously. Front end treasury yields are rising as bond prices fall, with two year yields at a two year high. In […]

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Market Analysis: The Week Ahead, BoE Minutes and BoC Rate Decision

Wednesday: BoC may be forced to at least consider further easing All expectations are for the Bank of Canada to maintain its key interest rate at 0.5 per cent next week. But this is a central bank that has already shown this year that it’s willing to act proactively and without warning. The statement accompanying […]

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All eyes on Draghi in next week’s ECB press conference

ECB Press Conference – 03/09/15 The US Federal Reserve may have been the focus last week, but the market’s full attention will shift on Thursday, to how the ECB intends to address the looming deflationary shocks facing the eurozone. Private sector credit has only just begun to improve in the eurozone and inflation has escaped […]

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The Week Ahead, UK CPI, Retail Sales and FOMC meeting

Tuesday: UK CPI: a duck out of line for the BoE Looking at the UK economy you’d think that the Bank of England had its ducks in a neat row. But, despite a positive outlook for GDP growth, a strong labour market and diminishing slack, a vital element is still missing – inflation. Headline CPI […]

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The Week Ahead: More decisions in store for the Bank of England

Greece takes centre stage yet again Fundamental data has had to take a back seat in driving euro trading in recent week with politics and the threat of a ’Grexit’ being the main market mover. As a result, the market analysts who would normally be hanging off ECB President Mario Draghi’s every word, will be […]

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The Week Ahead: Greece takes centre stage again

Greece takes centre stage yet again Fundamental data has had to take a back seat in driving euro trading in recent week with politics and the threat of a ’Grexit’ being the main market mover. As a result, the market analysts who would normally be hanging off ECB President Mario Draghi’s every word, will be […]

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Improving economic conditions just around the corner for euro

Euro Outlook – 23/04/15 Wednesday will be a big day for the euro, with German inflation data and M3 money supply due to be released in the morning. Recent euro data has been encouraging and nothing will be a better judge of the success of the ECB’s quantitative easing programme than these two statistics. Germany […]

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The euro may be weak, but that’s manna from heaven for exporters

ECB Press Conference – 10/04/15 With Mario Draghi’s quantitative easing programme performing exactly as advertised, the ECB’s press conference looks likely to be something of a victory lap. Interest rates are down, lending and business confidence are up, and the euro has been completely destroyed. Draghi will be quick to insist that weakening the euro […]

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Real wage growth to be the political football next week

UK CPI and Average Earnings As far as the average voter is concerned, real wage growth is the single most important indicator of the UK’s economic recovery, so we can expect next week’s CPI and Average Earnings data to be heavily politicised. Despite the substantial falls in unemployment seen over recent years, real wages remain […]

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The Grexit could easily be avoided, but negotiations look anything but certain

Greek Debt Crisis – 10/04/15 Yet another deadline has been set for the Greek debt crisis, with this one being for the submission of the list of reforms Greece is willing to make in exchange for continued financing. There is undoubtedly an equitable and economically sound basis for a deal between Greece and its creditors. […]

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First sight of dollar weakness could lead to euro rally next week

Euro Outlook – 20/03/15 After what appears to be the first sight of dollar weakness since February, this week’s data releases have the potential to create a surprise rally in the euro. Over recent weeks strong US data and political concerns in the eurozone, coupled with loose ECB monetary policy, have driven euro/dollar down at […]

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Expectations high for FOMC meeting as markets hang on one word

FOMC Meeting – 18/03/15 It’s not often that a crucial monetary policy statement boils down to one word, but Janet Yellen has created the perfect set of circumstances for markets to do just this with this week’s FOMC meeting. In her recent testimony, Yellen said that rates could rise at any subsequent meeting, just as […]

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Ranko Berich

Ranko Berich

Ranko Berich is Head of Market Analysis at Monex Europe. He is a respected macroeconomic commentator, combining incisive market insight with a deep understanding of global economic and political events.

Ranko leads our team of analysts, providing commentary and insight on the markets as news breaks.

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